MOLDOVA | Taking Back Transnistria?

In March 2024, Transnistria, a breakaway region of Moldova under Russia’s influence for over 30 years, appealed to Moscow for help, fearing Moldovan attempts to regain control. While Russia has warned that any use of force would be seen as an attack against the Russian Federation, some nevertheless believe that the war in Ukraine has provided Moldova with a prime opportunity to reassert sovereignty over Transnistria. But could Moldova really be planning to retake Transnistria by force?

The Republic of Moldova, once known as Bessarabia, is a landlocked nation bordered by Ukraine and Romania. Emerging from the former Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic after the end of the Cold War, it is predominantly Romanian-speaking. However, at the same time, Transnistria declared independence in 1990 as the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR). This led to a short conflict followed by a ceasefire and Russian military presence. Despite international efforts, the conflict remains unresolved due to political and economic interests, including Russia's desire to maintain regional influence. However, Moldova's recent EU candidacy and the shift in military dynamics in Ukraine have shifted the focus to Moldova's potential to retake Transnistria. But is this likely?

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*VIDEO CHAPTERS*
00:00 Introduction and Titles
00:42 Reasserting Sovereignty over De Facto States
03:04 A Short History of Moldova
04:26 Moldova and the Emergence of the Transnistrian Issue
05:56 Efforts to Resolve the Transnistria Issue
06:55 Moldova, Transnistria and the Ukraine War
08:21 Is Moldova Plannign to Retake Transnistria?
10:08 Could Moldova Invade Transnistria?
11:47 Political Arguments Against Military Action

*SOURCES AND FURTHER READING*
Moldova | Ministry of Foreign Affairs |
Moldova | National Army YouTube
OSCE Mission to Moldova | Transdniestrian Conflict Resolution

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*MAP CONTENT*

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- The contents of this video and any views expressed in it were not reviewed in advance nor determined by any outside persons or organisation.
- Some of the links above are affiliate links. These pay a small commission if you make a purchase. This helps to support the channel and will be at no additional cost to you.

#Moldova #Transnistria #Russia

[JamesKerLindsay]

There has been growing discussion in the news about Moldova and Transnistria. But while it would seem that a military solution is not on the cards, do you see an opportunity for a peaceful settlement? And how would it play out? Or is recent speculation driven by Russia to justify some action against Moldova? Perhaps it is designed to lay the groundwork for annexing Transnistria? So, what do you think is going on? As always, I look forward to your thoughts and comments below.

[Leiwanderer]

Transnistria is more of a headache for Ukraine than it is for Moldova at the moment. Ukrainian politicians have suggested several times that they could retake Transnistria for Moldova, but apparently this isn't what Moldova wants. As you're saying, having to integrate a potentially hostile pro-Russian population does not seem to be in the current government's interest.

[makelovenotwarnoob]

The Moldovans will not try anything militarily. For multiple reasons. Those that you mentioned, but also the fact that they don't know how the war in Ukraine will end. The Russians might get Odessa in the future and thus get to Moldova too. Also, the population in Transnistria, although only 28% ethnically Russian, is deeply committed to Russia. They might not be Russians, but they do identify with the Russian cultural and social space. If Transnistria would get integrated into Moldova, that would change the electoral space there. Now the pro-European camp barely manages to get over 50%. Add Transnistria to it and I don't know if you will ever get again a pro-European majority. And I don't think that pro-European people from proper Moldova would be too happy about this.

[EdMcF]

I'm still baffled by how 1, 500 Russian troops in Transnistria get supplied given that they border the Ukraine on one side and Moldova on the other, there's no obvious route in, as it must involve Russian supplies crossing one of those two countries. Was there some deal in the 1990s peace deal that allows the Russian military safe passage that both Moldova and the Ukraine still follow?

[RussellWarshay]

I have no doubt that Russia will defend Transnistria just like they defended Armenia.

[EmmaMaySeven]

I feel that Transnistria is one of those cases where there's a deep disconnect between outsiders looking in and the people living there day-to-day. For me, it's obvious that Transnistria should reintegrate to Moldova. Imagine all the benefits which would come with moving Westward politically! And how can they believe their tiny sliver of land will ever prosper as it is? Yet clearly they don't feel that way, and that ethnic and cultural ties, as well as history, has shaped a radically different outlook to this question. Our imagined worlds are often much more important than the real world.

[playframe]

there is no need for military, when Transnistria is totally dependent on Moldova. they can just be squeezed to merge back

[yohesmokingdaboof]

Love this channel and its unequivocal professionalism. May peace come to Europe! And may democracy rein!

[ptrappe]

Excited about you covering this topic. I visited Tiraspol in 2019 and after the invasion I've often thought it's been overlooked as a complicating factor.

[LegaliseFinland]

I was of the opinion that Ukraine and Moldova should team up on Transnistria and split the weapons, but after watching this video I am now of the opinion that Moldova will be able to peacefully reintegrate the area one day. Thank you for informing my opinion.

[markdowding]

Hi professor. Is it correct from a legal standpoint to say that "Azerbaijan retook Nagorno-Karabakh" when in fact before last September it had never directly controlled the region ever since it got its independence from the Soviet Union?

[StatistikaInfo]

Error in the video 82% are romanians and moldovans (not 75%), with 75% moldovans and 7% romanians, they are technically the same nation and ethnic group named differently.

[andysm]

Next month, I will have the opportunity to visit Moldova and Transnistria ..the feedback from folk i know there, there seems little support for a Moldovan intervention ..the damage, even if such a move was successful, would be counter-productive, turning Trans. as the `victim` . And of course, the tax payers in Moldovia would be footing the economic bill of that reunification( and a sizable Trans. population that is hostile to such action... and perhaps taking partizan action against Moldovan forces and institutes..

[mikenogozones]

I was actually in Moldova 🇲🇩 last year on my way to Ukraine. In the capital there was a huge rally to join the European Union. Unfortunately I didn't have time to visit Transnistria, I'm sure it would have been a different experience.

[mou]

Could be a modern day Singapore in terms of forced independence if Moldova sees a peaceful move into the EU and not bothering with the costs of taking it back

[artiomc]

Very good analysis. Glad that you mentioned a tricky electoral balance as a major factor of holding the conflict frozen. Just want to add a piece why previous pro-Russian government wasn’t so keen to unify as well, even winning in terms of additional electorate for them - it’s a grey economic area where a lot of Moldovan money laundering is happening. For many this status-quo is too precious to lose.

[MrMordechaiAnilevich]

Good analysis. I lived and worked in Moldova. Organic reunification will happen eventually. I can promise you that the lack of consistent support for Ukraine by NATO members is a poor advertisement for any military solution by Moldova. Please have a look at the geography. Transnistria is being strangled by Ukraine on one side and Moldova on the other. Transnistria's only outside access is via a river to Odessa. It is more likely that Ukraine will cut this access. Most Moldovans are content with remaining as Switzerland. Last, Moldovas' army is tiny and poorly equipped.

So, the members of NATO should decide if they are going to resolve the Ukraine war before they start looking at Transnistria.

[KonradAdenauerJr]

Moldova was among the first victims of Russia's strategy of provoking a conflict in another country, then freeze it (while offering to be the "peacekeeper."). A sick joke, indeed.

[Ecoman]

The population of Transnistria is mostly pro-Russian. This applies not only to the Slavs (Russians, Ukrainians, Bulgarians, and Gagauzes=semi-Turkified Bulgars), who constitute 62% of the total, but to many of the Romanians, including the so called "ethnic Moldovans, " too. Also, do not forget that many Ukrainian nationalists believe that Transnistria should belong to Ukraine.

[Catmint]

New James Ker Lindsay? That’s what I call a GOOD Friday