Didier Sornette: How we can predict the next financial crisis

The 2007-2008 financial crisis, you might think, was an unpredictable one-time crash. But Didier Sornette and his Financial Crisis Observatory have plotted a set of early warning signs for unstable, growing systems, tracking the moment when any bubble is about to pop. (And he's seeing it happen again, right now.)

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[drexelmildraff]

I've been familiar with Prof Sornette's work for many years. He is one of few geniuses working in academia today. What a pleasure it was hearing him speak.

It's ridiculous how many ignorant people come here not to dialogue with knowledge but to nitpick a respectable academic of his accent, which is not even that strong.

[MindDetox]

speak the truth even if your voice shakes! this guy delivers an EXTREMELY important message here.

[freesk]

"double, double, toil and trouble, fire burn and cauldron bubble..."
That's what I imagine Ben Bernanke et al to be saying during closed door Federal Reserve meetings.

[supersonic]

What an amazing person he is. He is very knowledgeable in his field and on other fields as well. He is very fluent even though english isn't his native language. He is smart, confident and athletic. Seeing him makes me believe there are many great people in this world.

[arthurdubroue]

Le diapo de la présentation est-il disponible quelque part ou au moins les sources ? merci bien

[TheGrapplingMonkey]

Awesome talk! Reminds me of Hari Seldons Psychhystorie. :)

[BryanKale]

Thanks.. explains a LOT...

Well done... peace

[bhagat]

you can predict the next financial crisis by asking the US federal reserve when are they planning to have one.

[mikegoldstone]

Very love to see what he suggests for the emergent increase of general interest rates in the world's largest mrkets.

[GhostInTheShell]

While I agree almost anyone can spot bubbles. Knowing when they are going to pop is very important.

I know someone who saw a major bubble in our economy, knowing when it popped Gold prices would shoot up he heavily invested in gold. After many years he finally sold the gold for a loss. About two years later bubble popped gold went through the roof.

Knowing the pace of the bubble, knowing exactly how unstable it is. Is very important.

[benzbubblecat]

would love to see NNT's reply to this.

[rRobertSmith]

at time 9:29 no index (readable) of left side of graph....what...trillions of USD? also I came here to see a circuit diagram of the hardware he is that?

[freesk]

Each person interacts with nature, and risks encountering the dragons of nature at any time.

[thomasf.]

Why is it on planet with millions of Youtube users this lecture has only been watched 140K times ??

[brucemclee]

If you are having a hard time with his accent there is an option to turn on closed captioning at the bottom of the video.

[smallestaj]

Wonder if he could apply his systeme on the global warming... id love the see the forecasting on that.

[LeonidasGGG]

The system has grown so much and become so complex, it became organic.

[snowpunk]

Planet Money has some great episodes on bubbles and economic forecasting.

[nickjekov]

but wouldnt we pop the bubble by detecting and measuring it? if someone had did this in 2005-2006 and announced that real estate market is over valued and had proven this then the crisis would have begun 1-2 earlier that it did.