Gab Marcotti’s 2022 World Cup Predictions 🔮 | ESPN FC

Gab Marcotti makes his picks for the 2022 World Cup, including the teams that will advance out of each group and then the overall winner.

[matija]

Croatia as always the most underrated team in tournament together with Serbia. Only one guy picked Serbia and Croatia…

[HarishKumar-gwbz]

Brazil vs Argentina is unpredictable, anything can happen!!

[AMIN_mash]

All I’ll say is, I can’t wait to see the reactions when France end up being grouped because of the champions curse lol

[renzovallejos]

If Brazil players are healthy and play to their level, I don't see them losing to anyone to be honest. Their defense and offense are too strong. Really strong depth as well.

[CIC]

Belgium defence is so old and slow though Gab?? Lol

[sapac]

How can someone pick Canada over Croatia or even Morroco is beyond me.

[yakakiyakaki]

I think Argentina are going to pull the rabbit out the hat at this WC. Scaloni has done an outstanding job unifying this group of individuals to play as a TEAM which is something that has been missing for decades!

[lawirutto]

with the amount of no talk about Argentina, I would love to talk about Argentina's chances of winning the world cup. With Messi on the ranks, and with the team that Scaloni has build, Argentina will win this edition of the world cup.

[bradentour]

These predictions, I have been watching them and reading them for decades. Never pan out. Unfancied teams like Japan and Uruguay could be in Semis, especially as so many European teams will have injury problems and tired players in November.

[hadhamalnam]

If there's a Uruguay Belgium quarter, I could see Uruguay winning as Belgiums "Golden generation" are really pretty thin without Hazard.

[byronescudero]

I think they have a little too much confidence in Brazil. As much as they are the favourites, it can’t be this overwhelming

[dmk]

Cool.Your predictions are spot on, Gab. Keep up the good work. Greetings from Croatia.

[arghadeepkar]

Everyone is choosing France to progress, but have forgotten about the World Cup Winners Curse!

[arpitagawade]

plz tell me guys is it true that arg will definitely meet Brazil if both gets to semis they can't draw other team??

[Mcbrideferns]

And argentina to conquer it at the end ❤️

[limitlessbydesign]

I simply hope the refs get it right for every game, no controversy.

[reaganjananto]

Everyone says this and that. Suddenly Germany is in the Finals.

[TonaldDrump兀]

remember, this same guy said that barca will perform very well in UCL this season.

[AW-zkqb]

Honestly I think it's going to be one of Brazil or Argentina. In the case of the best team on paper putting it all together, it would be Brazil. But in the case of a top 5, maybe even top 3 team in the world on paper clicking perfectly and having a fairytale ending, it would be Argentina. Honestly, the winner of the World Cup is usually a team that people agree is one of the top contenders but often is not THE favorite.

I have this weird thing about jinxing, and I just feel like almost everyone picking Brazil to win the World Cup (completely understandably, as I believe they have the best team) might jinx Brazil and have Argentina win. But at the same time, I feel like my pointing out of the possibility of the fairytale ending of everything clicking and Argentina winning might jinx Argentina.

Also a weird thing: besides Italy winning back to back in the 1930s, no nation has ever won a World Cup that was one World Cup before, or one World Cup after hosting. Meaning if Germany hosted 2006, they'd never win 2002 or 2010. Also, among the big nations, it is quite common to see them winning or at least making the final 2 World Cups before they host or 2 World Cups after they host. Brazil hosted 1950 and won 1958, Germany hosted 1974 and made 1966 final and 1982 final, hosted 2006 and won 2014, Argentina hosted 1978 and won 1986, Italy hosted 1990 and won 1982, France hosted 1998 and made 2006 final.

But of nations that do win a World Cup either 2 World Cups before they host or 2 World Cups after they host, they only do that once. For example, Germany hosted 1974 and 2006. They didn't win 1982, but did win 2014. Brazil hosted 1950 and won 1958. This means that it might be less likely for Brazil to win the World Cup 2 World Cups after they hosted for a second time (1950 to 1958 was first, 2014 to 2022 would be second), although it being 2 World Cups after they host likely means they do well.

Also, besides very early World Cups/World Cups with much less teams, and hosting, no nation has ever won the World Cup after either not qualifying for or going out in the group stage of the previous World Cup. Italy didn't compete in 1930 before winning 1934, Uruguay won 1950 after not participating in 1934/1938, Germany won 1954 after being banned from 1950, but none of these were not qualifying. Brazil won 1970 after going out in group in 1966, but that was when there were only 16 teams, not after 24 teams and up format. France won in 1998 after not qualifying for 1990 and 1994, but they hosted 1998. 

So if you apply that logic, Germany (Group stage in 18) and Netherlands (DNQ for 18) are out of contention. I just can't see Spain winning the WC as they lack a world class finisher, I can't see France winning because no team wins back to back in modern era, and better teams imo (Spain 2010-2014) didn't repeat. I can't see England because they have still never beaten a major team in a knockout stage of a Euro or World Cup in a match not played in England, although I think England has one of the best chances to win of any European team. Belgium are just past their window and Netherlands are not there just yet. This could have been (and maybe still could be) the World Cup Portugal makes a run, with the players they have, but they haven't been able to effectively use all the talent they have. Also, France won 1998, Brazil won 2002. France won 2018, and I actually think it's LESS likely we see a repeat of France then Brazil 20 years later.

But in saying all of this, I would be VERY surprised if anyone besides Argentina or Brazil wins, but would have Argentina as my most likely to win, followed by Brazil

[Nextraker]

Of course Mexico will get out of the group and face group winners Denmark