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The Abu Musa and Tunb Islands Dispute Explained
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Situated to the west of the world's most important shipping chokepoint (The Strait of Hormuz) are the islands of Greater and Lesser Tunab and Abu Musam, all of which are disputed by Iran and the United Arab Emirates.
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By GeoVane, formerly AR Global Security and Base Rate (Global Guessing, and Crowd Money).
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Later in December 1971, Iraq, Libya, Algeria and Yemen would request a meeting of the United Nations security council to discuss the situation, a meeting at which the council would decide to “defer the matter to a later date”, and after which the matter has not been taken up by the council since.
The UAE has offered to negotiate with Iran, setting no preconditions for such negotiations, and arguing that the islands are an integral part of the country - a view which the Gulf Cooperation Council has thrown its weight behind. A first round of negotiations were held in 1992, but rendered no resolution. That same year, the UAE would briefly occupy the whole island, but later would withdraw to the Northern areas established in 1971. Since 1992, Iran has largely been described as having de-facto full control of the island, and increased its military-strategic presence there.
In 1995 another round of negotiations over the issue failed, and in 2006 members of the GCC would urge Iran to resolve the dispute through the international court of justice - something Iran has dismissed, despite calls from multiple other states.
In 2009, the UAE would approach Iran with a proposal to create a technical committee between the two states in order to foster a resolution, but Iran would not respond to the offer, leaving the dispute open until today. Three years later, a visit by then President of Iran Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, would receive a furious response from the United Arab Emirates, prompting the state to recall its ambassador to Iran for consultations.
Conclusion
Tensions between the UAE and Iran still simmer over the islands, however, according to experts, there is currently little chance of the UAE ever reasserting its sovereignty over them by force, due to its weaker military position. However, the UAE has become more assertive in its foreign policy in recent years - being part of the coalition to counter Iranian backed-Houthi rebels in Yemen, and pursuing and building military and economic infrastructure in countries such as Eritrea, Djibouti and parts of Somalia where the where control of the central government is absent or dubious. The country has also not shied away from the use of non-state irregular forces and has unofficially and allegedly seized territory in strategic locations - namely, the Yemeni islands of Socotra and Perim. Again, though unlikely, the UAE’s recent increase in kinetic and geopolitical power increases the likelihood that it could attempt to retake the islands, however, it is important to emphasise the chances of this are small.
Looking forward, the future of the dispute remains uncertain, and most likely, the islands will remain under Iranian control barring an unprecedented shift in the geopolitical dynamic of the wider region, or a major diplomatic breakthrough between the two states.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
By GeoVane, formerly AR Global Security and Base Rate (Global Guessing, and Crowd Money).
👍 Support our work here:
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Later in December 1971, Iraq, Libya, Algeria and Yemen would request a meeting of the United Nations security council to discuss the situation, a meeting at which the council would decide to “defer the matter to a later date”, and after which the matter has not been taken up by the council since.
The UAE has offered to negotiate with Iran, setting no preconditions for such negotiations, and arguing that the islands are an integral part of the country - a view which the Gulf Cooperation Council has thrown its weight behind. A first round of negotiations were held in 1992, but rendered no resolution. That same year, the UAE would briefly occupy the whole island, but later would withdraw to the Northern areas established in 1971. Since 1992, Iran has largely been described as having de-facto full control of the island, and increased its military-strategic presence there.
In 1995 another round of negotiations over the issue failed, and in 2006 members of the GCC would urge Iran to resolve the dispute through the international court of justice - something Iran has dismissed, despite calls from multiple other states.
In 2009, the UAE would approach Iran with a proposal to create a technical committee between the two states in order to foster a resolution, but Iran would not respond to the offer, leaving the dispute open until today. Three years later, a visit by then President of Iran Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, would receive a furious response from the United Arab Emirates, prompting the state to recall its ambassador to Iran for consultations.
Conclusion
Tensions between the UAE and Iran still simmer over the islands, however, according to experts, there is currently little chance of the UAE ever reasserting its sovereignty over them by force, due to its weaker military position. However, the UAE has become more assertive in its foreign policy in recent years - being part of the coalition to counter Iranian backed-Houthi rebels in Yemen, and pursuing and building military and economic infrastructure in countries such as Eritrea, Djibouti and parts of Somalia where the where control of the central government is absent or dubious. The country has also not shied away from the use of non-state irregular forces and has unofficially and allegedly seized territory in strategic locations - namely, the Yemeni islands of Socotra and Perim. Again, though unlikely, the UAE’s recent increase in kinetic and geopolitical power increases the likelihood that it could attempt to retake the islands, however, it is important to emphasise the chances of this are small.
Looking forward, the future of the dispute remains uncertain, and most likely, the islands will remain under Iranian control barring an unprecedented shift in the geopolitical dynamic of the wider region, or a major diplomatic breakthrough between the two states.
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