Bitcoin Flash Crash Coming?

A Beginner's Guide To Bitcoin:

In this video, I discuss the possibility of a Bitcoin flash crash, as the Fed continues to tighten.

Bitcoin is now trading below its 200-day moving average, which probably increases the probability of a flash crash occurring. It is a necessary precondition, although certainly no guarantee that a crash will happen.

We did get a Bitcoin flash crash in March 2020 right after Bitcoin closed below its 200-day moving average.

Bitcoin's correlation with risk assets continues to be strong, which means that a Fed tightening which tanks stocks has the potential to do the same to Bitcoin.

Once the Fed breaks something (stocks, Treasuries), it will reverse course quickly and rev up the money printers, driving Bitcoin back to new all-time highs again.

In order to benefit from a possible flash crash, I have set up a Bitcoin buy ladder, with limit orders at:

$40,000
$35,000
$30,000
$25,000
$20,000

If you are going to do this (not investment advice), it probably makes the most sense to buy a fixed USD amount at each limit order price. In this way, your dollars will be buying larger amounts of BTC as the fiat price declines.

Bitcoin is affected by Fed policy over the short term, but always goes on to hit new highs long term.

We are at the end of the long-term debt cycle, and the wheels are coming off of the current USD-based fiat financial system. Bitcoin remains the best life raft available.

Bitcoin will recover nicely from any crash. The same cannot be said for many altcoins.

Not investment advice! Consult a financial advisor.

Understanding the Fed's tightening:

Solana billionaire VC's are dumping on you:

The Fed's balance sheet:

Bitcoin stock to flow charts:

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Check out my Amazon best-seller, "A Beginner's Guide to the Stock Market":

I am not being paid or otherwise compensated by any company or cryptocurrency project that I mention in my videos.

My opinion is not for sale. Please do not contact me with any affiliate or advertising deals.

#Bitcoin
#cryptocrash

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[Bitcoin_University]

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[RootBeerGMT]

This guy is the best on YouTube. That being said, in no way do I believe there will be significant tapering nor an interest hike of any material concern.

[dg]

This is precise, sharp and has very little junk food content. Well done Sir for distributing clarity to matter.
Your format and layout is so simple and well executed. Many thanks 🙏

[kathleenn]

Thanks Matt. I found this very helpful. I just placed a bunch of limit orders and I will now focus on playing with my baby grandson.

[schlemmermaul]

Matthew, I aint selling either. Consider a segment on how to automatically pass on your BTC upon your death and how to ensure none of your heirs sell the BTC via smart contract. HODL on!

[thePontiacBandit]

Any amateur looking at a chart can see that when a stock hit lows and markets show weakness, it is time to buy.

But when that time comes all I hear is crying. When it hits new all time highs on a parabolic moves it'll be too late. DCA now and keep going. If we hit new lows, there will be all kinds of money to be made. Remember the only night number that matters is the number of SATs you have.

[MarioCantin]

Best Bitcoin content on the web for me, bar none. The “Elvis Priestly Syndrome” metaphor is a classic. I’ll be sure to borrow it. Thanks for providing clarity of thought.

[richg]

Great video Matt! Definitely taking advantage of these moments. I like the idea of limit orders during this time. As always, I appreciate your perspective!

[almor]

I keep a small trading account aside for Alts and other riskier bets and sold all of them. It was frustrating because I made half a million then held until it was worth a couple hundred thousand. Was feeling very sorry for myself. Doubting the whole market. Really worried about Tether and the Fed tightening for example. But I'm not selling my BTC no matter what. If we go lower I'll buy more. For those who think I wouldn't. I bought $3500 on leverage so... :)

[JonGoldstein]

You didn't really comment on this possible crash coinciding with the middle of the four year halving cycle. It seems possible that we see two years of bouncing along a bottom near the last ATH.

[AB]

Matt, what do younger people do with this information. Is there any use to traditional finance at all? Do I still fund a retirement account, college savings acct for kids, HSA, etc. with index funds or am I wasting time and resources by doing this? Obviously younger people have less capital to allocate which means it’s even more important to get it right but harder to do. And in the meantime trying to get it right we stretch ourselves thin in the here and now. Any suggestions would be appreciated!

[Lakeland]

Good video Matt. I'm going to set some limit orders for a potential flash crash. Happy Saturday!

[joegraham]

Hey Matt, referring back to one of your previous videos, what would have to happen to bitcoin or the overall economy for you to change your thesis on bitcoin and sell?

[kerbyanderson]

I noticed that when you had a picture of your computer screen, I could see the interview Daniela Cambone did with E. B. Tucker on the side of your screen. His warning about Fed Coin is tied to his belief that so many interested in digital coins are being set up to accept the Fed’s digital coin. Although your viewers know there are many differences between Bitcoin and Alt Coins, I think he may be right. I would encourage you to do a video about how the Alt Coin speculation may eventually usher in a Fed Coin.

[zcollincollin]

these price corrections are a huge opportunity.

[Barweezy]

I wonder if the stock to flow model takes into account dilution from altcoins over time. As more and more of them pop up and gain and value, it takes up liquidity that would have otherwise gone to bitcoin.

[EstebanValdez]

Those living on Bitcoin purchase the goods and services they need in bulk before the crash (usually on up swings), pay bills ahead of time, and keep a little cash on the side too. That’s a way some hedge.

[kevinl]

Thanks Matthew as someone who never plans on selling I really enjoyed this one.Have a great weekend

[thePontiacBandit]

Last comment: So several market analysts, particularly those that follow the futures market describe that the Bitcoin market is an adversarial market. Can you at some point explain why this is? The idea that parabolic runs want to take as few people with as possible, hence the incredible shake outs and draw downs.

[monuta]

Flash crash to wich price? 10.000 ? 20.000? 30.000? Where didt you guys put the buy limit orders? You have should told us a senario in your vidoe you brought an verry good topic up!