Rafi Farber: The Dollar is being Poisoned

Tom welcomes Rafi Farber back to the show. Rafi is an investor, author, and proponent of the Austrian Business Cycle.

Rafi discusses how to keep sane with short-term price movement in gold. There are times when investments fail to behave how you would expect. This is why it's important to keep cash on hand since you need to be able to buy the dip. You need emotional stability. Eventually, there will be another liquidity crisis and the Fed will likely intervene once again. There has been some exhaustion seen in miners, particularly Newmont and Barrick.

Most commodities are seeing shortages and higher prices. So far higher prices haven't corrected these supply issues.

When people understand that their wealth is being taken from them through inflation they will change their behavior. This is when the currency begins dying and shortages begin to occur.

Everyone's inflation rates are different because they use a different basket of goods. All the experts have different definitions and levels for hyperinflation. Rafi argues that hyperinflation should be defined as when people become reluctant to hold a currency. During these times prices can't compensate fast enough.

Growth in the money supply has become quite high over the last year. Recently, that rate has come way down although it's still seasonally high. Some of that supply appears to have entered the equity markets and it's difficult to track where these flows into equities.

The recent resignation of two Fed presidents demonstrates these people aren't clean. There almost all involved in equities and he questions why these two individuals were singled out.

Rafi outlines Milton Friedman's pencil analogy which demonstrates the complexities of free markets. We are seeing a contraction in the industry for various reasons like emission standards.

Lastly, Rafi discusses his ongoing experiment to take delivery of a silver bar via a futures contract.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:35 - Gold Price Action
4:12 - Selling Exhaustion
6:10 - Gold to Commodities
10:36 - Dollar Sickness
13:15 - Defining Hyperinflation
17:00 - Backwardation
20:18 - Expectations & Spending
21:13 - Money Supply Growth
24:10 - Fed Resignations
26:48 - Pencil Analogy
30:53 - Taking Silver Delivery
33:43 - Concluding Thoughts
35:12 - Wrap Up

Talking Points From This Episode
- Keeping sane in an insane economic world.
- Commodities and supply shortages.
- Defining hyperinflation as a loss of confidence.
- Fed resignations and the complexities of markets.

Guest Links

Rafi Farber invests based on the Austrian Business Cycle Theory and covers economic trends for timing the credit cycle. His marketplace service, The Libertarian Investor, helps subscribers manage the risks and profit from the ongoing fiscal and monetary crisis precipitated by the COVID-19 pandemic. His approach uses gold, silver, and associated stocks and investment vehicles as a low-risk, high-return methodology.

#RafiFarber #AustrianEconomics #Dollar #Gold #Debt #HyperInflation #FederalReserve #MiltonFriedman #AustrianEconomics

[steve]

I love Tom's interviewing style. He prepares carefully, asks great questions, and then just lets the guest do the talking. He's a great listener, a lost art.

[Juan]

Rafi is great and I enjoy his analysis on fiscal and monetary issues. Thanks Tom. You're channel is one I eagerly await for. Great guests, one is better than the next. Keep up the good work!

[fufubass]

Hey! Thank you for having Rafi on!!! I was just about to search for his latest, and here it is!

[nancyk]

Brilliant and fun guest on a subject that the vast majority of us don't understand to the degree Rafi does but helps us better understand with a clearer meaning. Looking forward to hearing from him again as things evolve. I now begin to fiercely protect my fig tree.

[simpingepidemic]

Never liked so fast, Rafi is high IQ, never bet against this man

[avinashkinikar]

As usual distinguished guests here. Altogether different analysis from other channels. Excellent job

[michaeldooley]

Thanks Tom and Rafi. Enlightening as usual

[maximummilitiaimmaculataem]

Thanks Rafi 🙏🏻🙏🏾 always enjoy your rationale, discussion language & macro analysis 🧐

[CollectorChronicles]

Awesome guest! I loved this interview.

[actualsurfer]

We Love us some Rafi!!!

Thank you Tom!

[proxywebs]

There are many great guests but Rafi is one that really educates us, and most often has new and relevant information for us to digest.

[proxywebs]

Rafi Farber is one of the top ten guests!

[silverback]

I can see how supply is breaking apart with that pencil example

[geoffmcarthy]

Thank you both for the great information!!

[postscript]

Rafi, In your closing remarks you were saying "...I'm sure your viewers can imply..." I think you meant infer. Thanks for your time podcasting. It's a shame that MANY content creators feel (correctly, probably) that they must code language.

[kmk]

smart guest, fantastic...thank you so much!

[jeffkittelson]

I have personal hit my own hyperinflation cause i get rid of cash pretty damn fast!

[Scoobyism]

Radio Farber. The most smartest guy regarding inflation currency and our future

[janereynolds]

The problem with truck drivers in the UK is the licensing department which is not issuing licences, therefore d rivers retiring are not being replaced. The dvla dept of vehicle licensing authority is not working due to a dispute. To get trucks moving they need to get the military in to solve this. IMO they want all this disruption it plays into the destruction of the economy. Politicians worldwide need to be made redundant immediately. They are criminals.

[carlsitler]

Rafi, I agree, nobody knows but we can have a good guess. When the stock market drops 40%, people will again sell their gold and silver to cover margin calls. The prices will drop but dealers will probably be ready this time with high premiums. We might see <$20 silver. Then when the markets continue down to around a 60% drop, the stampede of big money will begin and will continue to escalate as the stock market drops 90%. Silver will already be long gone and it will be too late at this point for people to get more gold. Some governments will try to confiscate but the people will fight back. The CCP is already stirring up the Chinese for war with America but I don't think it will work. The people are already blaming the CCP for their job losses and real estate investment losses. Time for a new world.