SERBIA-RUSSIA | A Special Relationship?

In this video, we delve into the intricacies of Serbian-Russian ties, exploring whether Serbia is as pro-Russia as many believe. As the war in Ukraine continues, Belgrade’s relationship with Moscow has faced intense scrutiny. Despite European condemnation of Putin’s actions, Serbia has resisted sanctioning Russia, fuelling debates about its pro-Russian stance. Yet, reports indicate Serbia has, in fact, been supplying arms to Ukraine, suggesting a more nuanced relationship.

The roots of Serbia's relationship with Russia extend back centuries, shaped by shared Slavic heritage and Orthodox Christianity. This bond, forged during conflicts with the Ottoman Empire, later evolved through the tumultuous 20th century, including two World Wars and the Cold War era. In the modern, post-Yugoslav era, this has seen Serbia rely on Russian support to counter Western influence, particularly regarding Kosovo’s independence. However, Serbia's foreign policy reveals a balancing act. While maintaining ties with Moscow, Serbia has pursued EU membership and engaged with NATO. Public sentiment in Serbia also showed a preference for European integration over closer ties with Russia. However, the ongoing Ukraine conflict has placed Serbia in a precarious position. This video unravels these complexities, offering an informed look at Serbia's diplomatic strategies and the evolving dynamics of Serbian-Russian relations.

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*VIDEO CHAPTERS*
00:00 Introduction and Titles
00:49 Special Relationships in International Relations
01:49 The Emergence of Serbia
03:12 Serbian-Russian Relations 1878-1940
04:33 Yugoslav-Soviet Relations, 1945-1991
05:44 Serbia, Russia and the Balkan Wars
07:22 Serbian Attitudes Towards Russia
09:45 Serbia, Russia and the Ukraine War
11:28 Is Serbia Pro-Russian?

*SOURCES AND FURTHER READING*
Government of Serbia | Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Government of Russia | Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Russian-Serbian Humanitarian Centre
Serbia European Union Relations
NATO-Serbia Relations

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*MAP CONTENT*

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- The contents of this video and any views expressed in it were not reviewed in advance nor determined by any outside persons or organisation.
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#Russia #Serbia #Balkans

[JamesKerLindsay]

This is another topic I have wanted to explore for a while. Having worked on the Balkans for many years and having spent a lot of time in Serbia, I have always been fascinated by the relationship between Russia and Serbia. It is much more interesting and complex than most outsiders think it is. But I do get the sense that the Ukraine War has changed something. So, is Serbia moving closer to Moscow? And is there a split between the public and the government, as seems to be the case. Or is the Government just leading the EU on and is much more pro-Russian than it presents itself. As always, I’m looking forward to your thoughts and comments. (And please keep it civil. Even if you disagree, we can still discuss it politely.) I’d be particularly keen to hear from any Serbs. What do you think? Have things changed in Serbia, and how?

[GothPaoki]

They can be friends with whoever they want.

[proetcontra]

If you dive to the bottom of an ocean and see two fishes fight, take a closer look around and you will see an Englishman. - Mahatma Gandy

[joeblack]

Ok so. There are several layers of relationship between the two countries. The primary one is political and thats Kosovo (JKL is correct here). Serbia needs Russia because legally speaking (despite what Americans would like to claim) the Kosovo issue is still in the UN and UN resolution 1244 is still active and binding (and it states that Kosovo is a part of Serbia). Kosovo will not join the UN until this resolution is abolished. And thus Russia has the ability to both veto any American/British attempt to strong arm / force Kosovo into UN (like they do in many other international bodies) but also to prevent the Americans and British from abolishing the resolution 1244 which they would love to do.

Second to all of that, is the economic angle. Unlike what you claimed, nobody here thinks that Russian investment is nonprofitable or harmful, its quite the opposite. Its just not comparable to the Western investment, both in quality and quantity. Serbia had a political deal with Russia (just like Ukraine btw) where it could export industrial goods produced in Serbia onto Russian market without paying tariffs. This has led to many Western (European) companies investing in production capacity in Serbia (including heavy industry, like car production) in order to avoid paying export taxes for the Russian market - thus being more competitive and more profitable not only in Russia but in the entire Russian economic zone (a market of about 200 million people). And in exchange for that, Serbia had sold its national oil and gas distrubution, probably below market value, to the Russians. For which we get (or used to get) gas cheaper than market value. Gas which is required for (heavy) industry. In order to cut their operating costs. And maximize profits. Leading to MORE West (European) investments. For profits.

So now that we know the context of things here, the West isnt investing in Serbia because they love us. They do it (and used to do it before) because its profitable. Russia isnt investing in industry here because it has no interest to do so. Serbia is a small country that is not a member of the EU zone and it doesnt have any special political access to the EU economic zone either.



Completely unrelated to all of this we have 2 more issues:

Serbia-Russia relations in the UN. Serbia's position in the UN is that its illegal to unilaterally change the borders of country against the will of said country. So invading Serbia and setting up Kosovo as a puppet vassal state which then unilaterally declares independence is very much against the UN charter. Well, invading Ukraine, which is a sovereign country, and annexing its regions, against the will of Ukraine, is basically the same exact thing (minus the step of setting up the puppet vassal state) as what has happened in Kosovo. So Serbia cannot clap in the UN and say "well done Russia". Russians know this. And they are not stupid. They know Serbia must vote on resolutions that condemn invasion and call for ceasefire. They dont care. Half of the global south countries did the same.

Serbia-Russia relations vis a vis EU. Serbia is a candidate for the EU membership as we all know. But also as we all know Serbia will never become a member, sort of like Turkey. Because, as we all know, the West will blackmail Serbia over membership with recognition of Kosovo, which Serbia will never accept. And all parties know this. Serbia is however STILL a candidate because the candidate status gives you access to various cheap credits from the EU and various investment project funds. For example EU will pay for construction of roads that fit in EU development plans because even if Serbia is not a member, its still located in a central position and EU having efficient road transit (and river transit in the future) through Serbia is economically beneficial to the EU. So we play this game where EU demands we follow EU foreign policy as a candidate state and we play dumb and say "well were not a member state we dont have to follow your foreign policy, but here, we will vote for this UN resolution that calls for respecting Ukraine's internationally recognized borders". EU gets its virtue signalling moment. We get our virtue signalling moment. Money keeps flowing. Everyones happy.

Serbia-Russia relations in context of arms sales to Ukraine. This is where your video has the most inaccuracies and downright purpuseful deceptions IMO. JKL you just cant help it you globalist you. Anyway. Things are very simple. Serbia has a big arms industry. Its a significant part of our GDP. With 10s of thousands of jobs and whatnot. We sell arms and ammo. But we dont sell it to Ukraine. Which Russians know. What happens is the arms and ammo we export to third countries - for example UAE or Bahrein - end up in Ukraine. So military goods that we have sold (in some cases years ago) to third countries are now being bought by Americans (and others) for higher price and then re-exported to Ukraine. There is nothing we can do about that. Nor is there anything we can do to stop it in the future. Unless we completely shut down our arms industies and not export any weapons and ammo at all. Which would be suicidal. Which is why Russians are not retarded to demand this from us. And here we go. Was that context so hard to explain JKL? Really?

[ivanz]

🇷🇺♥️🇷🇸♥️🇷🇺♥️🇷🇸♥️🇷🇺♥️🇷🇸
Forever, and more than friends,
We are brothers!!!!

[jelk]

Serbia tries to be friendly with every country. Greece and Russia are about the only countries that have not attacked Serbia and so it should not be a surprise that ordinary Serbs have a softer spot for those two European countries than they have for others. It would be nice if the neocons left Serbia alone and instead visited to enjoy its food, hospitality and history of giving the world a bunch of remarkable individuals who have benefited the whole world in science, the arts, as well as sport.

[TGSSMC]

I hope we don't have another war in the balkans.

[carlduplessis]

I love all your videos. I particularly like the format starting with a brief introduction of the history . As a South African I can understand public opinion in Serbia . The so-called West has to try and understand that it’s enemies are not necessarily ours . We would like to do what is best for us and that is having good relationships with all countries . We also consider justification for certain actions by the West not to be consistent and also hypocritical.

[brankoprosic]

A Special Relationship? Only when Serbia's interest is other countries' concern it appears to be a subject to discuss about and make videos on YouTube, with questionable motives. Serbia and later its baby - Yugoslavia played if not mayor then significant role in both World Wars. It somehow shows how Serbia has the most interesting disproportion between overall positive long term outcome to its periodical belittlement by Great Powers. Maybe Serbia plays her cards optimally, given the geographical, political and economic position. Just because currently is desirable to "cancel" Russia, it does not mean Serbia is on the "wrong side of history". No sir! Tomorrow, the West will shake hands with Russia and will do business as before.

[tudorpop]

Historically Serbias best friend is Romania, we fought longer time on the same side than Russia helped them and when we were in opposite sides we just ignored each other (ww2, Yugoslav civil war).
Salutări din România!

[indjijatsararmy]

Little correction 11:30, in 1346 Serbia was proclaimed as an Empire and Stefan Dusan as Emperor of Serbs and Romans . Romans because the Byzantine Empire was in the mind of its people and Historicy Roman. And since Serbia ruled majority of former Byzantin/Roman European lands. It's official and in history books world wide.

[VladoPiljak]

Dude start is wrong, Serbia didn't lose against Otoman empire, we won but they came back 30 years later, while we could not gather the same army and defend .

[ТамнаЗора]

I appreciate the focus on Serbia and value the discussion, especially given my personal connection as a Serb. From my perspective, the current strong Russo-Serbian ties stem largely from the shortcomings of Western policies towards the Serbian question. The West, under U.S. leadership, has offered solutions that many Serbs view as inadequate and disrespectful. This diplomatic failure has allowed Russia, China, and other players to exploit the situation in this new multipolar world, which, in turn, aligns with Serbian interests given the perceived betrayal by Western governments. The West’s actions, ranging from the destruction of Yugoslavia, support for separatist groups, and direct military aggression, to continually breaking promises and disparaging an entire ethnic group  have created a deep sense of animosity and distrust in the last 35 years. These actions have led to a backlash, as we have not forgotten our history and value our honor, which cannot be bought with money. A shift in Western policies towards the Serbs might change the current situation, but such a change seems unlikely at this moment. As long as the Serbs are divided among three states (Serbia, Srpska and Montenegro) and Kosovo and Metohija remains an unresolved frozen conflict, we will continue to face problems.

[moonman]

I honestly think that to an extent, Serbia is only pragmatic with its relations to Russia because it's outside the EU; Hungary is in and can't really be kicked out, so it can be as pro-Putin as it wants with relatively little consequence. The Serbian government hasn't done itself any favours, especially recently, but I do think EU accession being stalled has in part driven them more towards Russia than the West. I do wonder if Serbs even want to join the EU anymore. I think there was polling recently that showed only 40% of Serbs supported joining the EU.

I understand why Serbs think the West is hypocritical for bombing them during the Kosovo war while today also supporting Ukraine, but I also think it's a bit more complicated than them having double standards, i.e., lots of war crimes on both sides of the conflict in Kosovo. Maybe it's too subjective, but you could probably do an entire video on whether NATO was justified or not in its intervention in Kosovo.

[electricVGC]

I find a lot of outside reporters try to avoid admitting that some countries don't like that Russia has invaded Ukraine, but still depend on Russia financially.

[live_free_or_perish]

Very complex subject. What do you think about @merocaine comment/theory of the region? Thanks!

[sarambatos]

Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales cannot be compared to Kosovo and Metohija. Albanians migrated to Kosovo and Metohia. Until the Berlin Congress, the Serbs succeeded under enormous pressure to survive in Kosovo and Metohia and have a majority in Kosovo and Metohia.
The real comparison is that migrants like Pakistanis, Hindus and others form their own states on the territory of England. Do you support that?

[Gaming-ro]

YU didnt capitulate in 1999, it ended with the kumanovo agreement. if serbia had capitulated nato would have just declared kosovo independence than and there or occupy serbia as some american politicians like joe biden wanted.

ofc this agreement to this day, or the UN resolution 1244 that followed, arent fully implemented at all. first of all kfor is supposed to be an international peace keeping force, but its basically just nato.
2008 independence of kosovo is illegal under the serbian constitution and the agreement does not include independents, but autonomy.

[ABozic]

I guess you just couldn't bring yourself to say that the defensive alliance's attack on Serbia was illegal. Most Serbs thought that the US/EU and others were honest and that they would not break the law.

You also failed to mention that Serbia didn't sell arms to Ukraine directly according to Vucic. It sold them to other countries (I think Spain was mentioned) who signed the end user certificates as required. If they passed the ammunition to Ukraine it was illegal. But hey who cares about the law in the collective West. Lots of Russian/Soviet weapons sold to their former allies ended up in Ukraine. So the Russians also supplied Ukraine with arms in the same sense as Serbia.

[aleksandarvidanovic]

Good analysis Professor! As a Serb and follower of your work and channel (I referenced your work in my master’s thesis!), I find this video well balanced and insightful for many who do not understand the complex relationship between Serbia and Russia. Thanks!