Predicting the exact moment Alex Ovechkin will break Wayne Gretzky's goals record 🔮

Predicting the exact moment Alex Ovechkin will break Wayne Gretzky's goals record 🔮

#ESPN #NHL

#nhl #espn

[lyssalud]

videogames always became boring to me once I started looking into statistics and numbers. although something very natural its sobering and takes away some excitement. At least in life unexpected things are likely to happen because more variables

[rolieg]

Predict when Ovie will beat Wayne's hatrick(50) and multi goal games (189) records

[luckyea]

Which of the modern hockey players can become the best sniper of the NHL regular seasons and beat Gretzky's record?

To get into the TOP of the best NHL snipers, you need to score a lot and play a lot of matches.

List of top NHL scorers by career-ending goals per game average:

1. Mike Bossy - 0.762
2. Mario Lemieux - 0.754
3. Sea Denneny - 0.751
4. Babe Dye - 0.746
5. Pavel Bure - 0.623
6. Wayne Gretzky - 0.601
7. Brett Hull - 0.584
8. Bobby Hull - 0.574
9. Tim Kerr - 0.565
10. Rick Martin - 0.561
11. Phil Esposito - 0.559
12. Maurice Richard - 0.556
13. Cam Neely - 0.544
14. Marcel Dionne - 0.542
15. Pat Lafontaine - 0.541
16. Michel Goulet - 0.503
17. Rick Wave - 0.503
18. Nels Stewart - 0.498
19. Guy Lafleur - 0.497
20. Mike Gartner - 0.494
21. Dino Sissarelli - 0.494
22. Jari Kurri - 0.480
23. Ilya Kovalchuk - 0.478
24. Alexander Mogilny - 0.478
25. Joe Mullen - 0.473
26. Teemu Selanne - 0.471

Wayne Gretzky played 1487 matches. In terms of the number of games played, Wayne Gretzky ranked 24th, Ovechkin entered the TOP 60, and the number of players who played 1000 or more games is only 378. All players from the above list played fewer games than Gretzky. And the first five hockey players, although they bypassed Gretzky in terms of the average number of goals per game, did not even play 1000 games.


Average number of goals per game:

1. Auston Matthews - 0.626
2. Alexander Ovechkin - 0.612
3. Connor McDavid - 0.521
4. Steven Stamkos - 0.521
5. David Pastrnak - 0.496
6. Leon Draisaitl - 0.47
7. Sidney Crosby - 0.468
8. Mikko Rantanen - 0.44
9. Patrick Laine - 0.43
10. Sebastian Aho - 0.42
11. Nathan McKinnon - 0.38
12. Jack Eichel - 0.38
13. Corey Perry - 0.338
14. Mitch Marner - 0.33
15. Andrey Svechnikov - 0.32
16. Jack Hughes - 0.31
17. Matt Barzal - 0.25


Over time, due to age, this indicator only worsens. For example, at the age at which Ovechkin is now McDavid, Matthews and Pastrnak, the average number of goals per game was 0.634. Here all three lost to Ovechkin.

The more often a hockey player misses games, the less he will play in his career.

Percentage of matches played in recent seasons:

1. Connor McDavid - 97% (seasons 2016/2017-2021/2022)
2. Alexander Ovechkin - 96% (seasons 2014/2015-2021/2022)
3. Auston Matthews - 90% (seasons 2016/2017-2021/2022)
4. David Pastrnak - 87% (seasons 2015/2016-2021/2022)

Multiplying the average number of goals per game by the percentage of games played, we get the following indicators:

1. Alexander Ovechkin - 0.59
2. Auston Matthews - 0.561
3. Connor McDavid - 0.508
4. David Pastrnak - 0.429

Ovechkin at the age at which McDavid, Matthews and Pastrnak are now, this figure would be 0.61. Here again, all three lost to Ovechkin.


Let's compare Ovechkin and his closest competitor Matthews in the same conditions, namely in those seasons in which they turned 20-24 years old. For Matthews, these are the 2017/2018-2021/2022 seasons. Ovechkin has 2005/2006-2009/2010.

In these seasons, Ovechkin scored 269 goals in 396 games, Matthews 219 goals in 325 games.

Average number of goals per game: Ovechkin - 0.679, Matthews - 0.674.
Percentage of matches played: Ovechkin - 96.59%, Matthews - 87.37%.
The product of these indicators: Ovechkin - 0.656, Matthews - 0.589.

Of today's hockey players, Ovechkin has the best chance of becoming the NHL's top scorer in the regular season and breaking Gretzky's record. His closest competitor, Matthews, at the same age, has a lower average number of goals per game, and also missed more games.

[nickknoll]

Too bad Ovie is having a bad season. Makes your prediction unlikely right now. Likely 2025-26 season. Still good!