DLS-104 Module A8: Combining and Portraying Risks

Course Overview
Learn best practices for estimating dam and levee safety risks considering hazards, system response, and consequences. The basis for this course is the Best Practices in Dam and Levee Safety Risk Analysis Manual, developed jointly by U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) and Bureau of Reclamation (USBR).

Designed with cross-discipline experience in mind, this course summarizes the governance and guidelines relevant to dam and levee safety risk analysis, provides an overview of probability and statistics, and describes methodologies for estimating and portraying risks, and for building the case for risk estimates.

Learning Objectives
By the end of the training, participants will be able to:
• Create potential failure mode descriptions and event trees and use them to develop risk estimates
• Describe the hazards that dams and levees are subject to and how to estimate them
• Identify relevant case histories and foundational research studies
• Apply principles of theory of probability and statistics to quantify, combine and portray risk estimates
• Identify essential elements of life loss consequence estimates
• Build the case for risk estimates
• Explain governance and guidelines of tolerable risk

Module Objectives
Distinguish f-N diagrams and F-N diagrams
Describe double counting and methods to address it
Compare input and output uncertainty
Illustrate how to communicate risk estimates to effectively portray the impact to decision makers

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