China's Great Economic Slowdown - What CONSEQUENCES on the ASEAN?

#China #chinaeconomy #philippines #economy
China’s economic growth is facing headwinds that threaten to weigh on trade and tourism with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
From multiple and significant angles, China’s economy is under heavy strain. In particular, the nation experienced rare civil unrest due to its strict zero-COVID policy, which locked down vast sections of the economy, lowered industrial output, and curbed consumer spending which still reverberates currently.
Some important metrics offer evidence of an economic contraction. For example, the country’s exports dropped 9.9% from the previous year in December 2022.
That noted, the nation’s debt has risen rapidly over the past decade, particularly among state-owned enterprises and local governments. That could hinder China's ability to limit future economic shocks. Moreover, ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. and other countries have added to the uncertainty.
Still, China’s economic headwinds could lead to major impacts. Any slowdown in the Chinese economy might create new price pressures in the world economy, particularly its dependent trade partners like Southeast Asia. If its export prices rise, it hurts the demand for processed low-cost products.
China's economy relies heavily on international trade; exports account for around 20% of its gross domestic product according to the World Bank.
However trade dependence makes China vulnerable to global economic fluctuations and trade policy shifts. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed that reliance when demand for Chinese products dropped.
For economies in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, China’s slowdown could spell trouble. China has been ASEAN’s largest trading partner since 2009 and accounted for 18 percent of the total value of goods traded by the bloc in 2019, according to the ASEAN Secretariat. ASEAN is also China’s largest trading partner.
Vietnam and Singapore’s economic growth is likely to be the most affected in ASEAN by falling Chinese demand, followed by Thailand and Malaysia, as these countries rely heavily on China for the raw materials for their export-manufacturing led-industry.
For instance, Vietnam's economic growth slowed in the first half of 2023, expanding by 3.7% compared to 6.4% in 2022. The Vietnamese economy is also facing multiple headwinds, including shrinking exports and frequent blackouts, raising concerns over the outlook for Southeast Asia's rising manufacturing hub.

The same scenario to Singapore's economy. For the first half of 2023, its economy experienced a minimal average growth of point 55% compared to 4.2% in 2022.
Industrial output and exports have fallen for eight straight months, raising the risk of a prolonged downturn. China's reopening had fueled hopes for a sustained recovery in commerce and tourism for the region, especially Singapore's export-dependent economy, but demand has weakened in the wake of higher interest rates and strong inflationary pressures.
China’s grotesquely overinflated property bubble is at perpetual risk of bursting. A youth-unemployment crisis plagues its major cities. A perennially underpaid labor force is struggling to prop up consumer demand. And the demographic collapse wrought by the one-child policy has just begun.
Now, with President Xi Jinping effectively established as China’s leader for life, the country is finally transitioning out of zero-COVID. Can the country ever hope to return to sustained high growth?
China’s double-digit growth era is almost certainly over. The growth rate that China does manage to sustain in years ahead will largely depend on how Beijing adapts to the structural challenges facing its economy and the impact of Xi's new priorities.
China’s years of high GDP growth meant that its economy ballooned more than tenfold between the turn of the century and 2021, from $1.2 trillion to nearly $18 trillion, according to World Bank data. By contrast, the GDP of the United States, the world’s largest economy, is a little more than double its size in 2000.
Over the coming years, however, China’s growth rate will slow down between 2 and 5 percent, according to estimates by several economists. The high-growth era seems to be ending now as per the numbers, but in terms of productive investment, it ended around 10 to 15 years ago.
Most economists appear convinced that China’s previous growth model has run its course. But with the country’s economy in the midst of a major transition, the future is unclear.
The unique demographic and economic conditions China leveraged to achieve unprecedented growth in recent decades have faded away.

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[joselitomarcial-tehr]

“Do not buy China 🇨🇳 products worldwide!”, Oh my goodness!🦜what happened huh?!🇵🇭🏴‍☠️🇺🇳☮️🛰📡 In God We Trust 💐

[disgruntledtoons]

The GDP of a nation depends on four gross factors: The size of the labor force, the productivity of labor, access to markets, and management of the economy. China's growth has all been due to a steady increase in the second factor (due to capital investment), and access to markets that could not be any more favorable. They will soon hit the limits imposed by their shrinking labor force and their mismanagement of their economy.

[CarolineMiranda-tdth]

When a leader of a country doesnt serve God but personal interest his country is doomed for destruction .

[rodneyd]

It’s a meltdown and everyone should get out

[JS-jhcy]

China under CCP just had a heart attack

[natsumidesu]

For the four major economies of ASEAN such as Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam and Thailand the slowing economy of China has a huge effect on their economy, but somehow Vietnam happens to benefit from the reverse effect on Chinas slow down.

[mahabaleshwarpandit]

We also hear that there are several ghost towns fully built but not occupied.

[VictorEduard]

For starters we won’t get any cheap rip off products that are (obviously)defective
Even if we do get it it will be cheaper but defective products will be higher

Especially the modern jeep is said to be made in China especially its parts

[jhebztv]

I've seen many videos in YouTube it says "China Economy is slowly weakened"

[jaimebacolod]

I don't care if there Economy became strong or weak. It doesn't matter beacuse even in the time there economy is strong way back 2000 where China economy is strong our life is still the same, that time it is hard to find job. Hundreds of Filipino go abroad. I don't fell and it never help me, in fact going back to the time China economy is strong to much Filipino Female apply as Domestic helper in middle east so how can you tell if there slow growth will effects us. It doesn't matter for Maharlikan but it's matter for there citezen living in the Philippines.

[comchadelalora]

This is why Xi has been visiting many countries with a big smile.😮

[tonyp]

China's GDP was the highest for 18 centuries out of 20.

[สุทธิศักดิ์มธุรพงศากุล]

With an economy size of 18-19 trillion dollars, it can generate GDP of more than 5%, which is considered very high compared to the Philippines where the GDP is only around 400 billion dollars and the GDP is only 5-6%. China is still a far more economic miracle than the Philippines.

In some years, the Chinese authorities even put a brake on the growth of their own GDP to prevent it from growing too much.

[Shineon]

“Internal Market?”….WHAT internal market? Chinese don’t spend.

[davidong]

I do not think that it is over for China. It is going to be naive to think that it is over for
CHINA.

[liarliar]

In 2022, China exports to US amounted to $536B.
Is there a slowdown?

[nelsontan]

where will the people get the money to stimulate domestic consumption...

[Jason-sfvx]

China is facing severe debt crisis due to over investment in real estate, infrastructure and decoupling from developed economies and other economies. Asean will rise to the foreront to become the new gravity of growth for the world because previously Asean is only beneficiries of China's growth story .

[ChickenMcThiccken]

india is even more poor than china. when india hits that peak ; it will be 20% growth. nearly double of china due to a more weaker market ; rising even higher.

[Napsboy]

It will colaps until negative percentage,