Will the Fertility Rates in Europe Rise Again?

In this video, I discuss if the fertility rates in the regions most affected by the population decline and aging will rise again in the future, and if the answer is affirmative, then why and how it might happen.

- timestamps -

00:00 - Introduction
04:12 - Why Are The Birth Rates so Low?
11:20 - Why “The Handmaids´ Tale” Is Not an Option
16:49 - Old, Poor and Lonely
26:56 - The Reinvented Purpose of Having Children
34:06 - Conclusions

Photos used in the video and for the thumbnail:

Some of the information sources for this video:

[jaanth]

I live in Japan. I just saw a pregnant woman outside today. And it suddenly hit me that I couldn't remember the last time I had seen a pregnant woman. I'm not joking or exaggerating.

[SierraSilver]

In Denmark, Danish women have more children than those with non-western immigrant backgrounds, as immigrant women have less and less. Thankfully in our country we do many statistics on ethnicity, background and descendants. Western Europe should learn from us. (Data evidence in channel description)

[chdao]

Women will want to be mothers when being a mother has high status. They won't care how much it costs as long as they are admired and respected for being mothers. Currently this is not the majority opinion.

[katarzynalpzmarajko-nenow]

I think the threat of "forced euthanasia" is real. Especially in countries where family bonds are not very strong.

[CrunchyNorbert]

I've looked at one paper so far on animal populations; they go up and down and again in cycles. We have seen one huge sudden spike and think there's never going to be a pull back. There is always a pullback.

[paulius]

Im siting here at 25 still being afraid to talk to women, and wondering how many men are like me.

[cissegoalpao]

As a Greek I have to say to say that your observasion about right wing authoritarian regimes unintetionally causing the left wing movements among the people to grow stronger is spot on. We have suffered from this in Greece for over 40 years and only now after the total shitshow that was the extreme left wing SYRIZA goverment are people finally starting to realize how destructive the left wing policies have been for the country.

[winterskiU]

I would like Europeans and Asians to get the population decline stabilised. Yes many countries in Africa will have their population grow (this is due to improved child survival rates not because of an increased number of births) but the growth rate is falling so its only a matter of time before that continent joins you.

My theory is that the decline is linked to increased female education combined with decreased religiosity and an emphasis on consumerism (which women are highly susceptible to as they make up 80% of consumer spending).

This kind of environment means that children are more of an economical burden than a boon, and it does not help that motherhood is no longer venerated, especially if a woman is in a mid 20s (the most ideal time to have children).

We are also in an environment that is heavily weighted in our early years. You need to get all your education and career path done in your 20s which means putting aside having children.

Society will need to change in the following ways.
1) Motherhood needs to be praised again and respected (yep let's make motherhood great again 😂)
2) 1 in 3 mothers would give up their job to look after their children full time or work part time if they were able, right now that is no longer possible for the vast majority of families.
3) Starting a career in your 30s should be normalised and supported. People will be more level-headed and understand what career path they would like to take (so many people have useless degrees that they don't even use) this will allow for young families to form without people feeling that they are sacrificing their most valuable time.
4) It is too easy to break up families which leads to more improvised people increasing dysfunction and crime. Laws may need to be changed so that divorce isn't the go to whenever the wind blows the wrong way. Also it needs to be emphasised that divorce is BAD for children (unless it is an exceptionally abusive home of course). By families this means elevating the importance of grandmother's and grandfather's who historically would have been of immense support. Tax breaks for marriage needs to be made. Having children in a marriage needs to have a significant advantage.

[krevonalet-martson]

As an Estonian, the last point was very comforting, thank you for that!

[kungszigfrids]

Im 22 and those my age have already realized that we wont have penssions when were old, and so we evade taxes to not pay pensions to those who have given us nothing. We can take care of our own elders, we will not take care of the elderly of others.
Eddit: Also yes Im a latvietis.

[andrewzebic]

One of the huge positives of older walkable cities in Europe and Asia is that elderly health is much easier and cheaper to maintain. Here it seems in Prague an older person won't have it easy, but they can walk to get groceries and will be able to easily meet friends nearby their apartment who will be able to at least call health services on each other's behalf. Australia has a huge problem here in that many elderly people simply cannot function weekly as soon as they can't drive. A sad case was an old man in a huge house who couldn't go downstairs anymore because he wasn't able. I don't feel sad for him, but his children who are constantly having to spend several hours every week tending to a man too proud to downsize, even at the risk of death. While it sounds strange, nurses and doctors in Australia have told me it happens more than you think

[cherubinth]

Evolutionary pressure will ensure that fertility will rises again, because everyone who is born is born by people that reproduce despite the current cultural developments. However, the native population in Europe will probably be mostly replaced by then, so it cannot rebound. Unless you think rebound means someone else comes in and grows. Japan's native population will rebound if they keep their immigration policy like it is now. So will South Korea.

[genmontgomeree]

I've told this to my ex too last year. She and many women here in Belgium believe that having children automatically means sacrificing their career or independence. I've told her that if you have supportive family and friends (like the majority of people actually have) or you have a partner with whom you can make agreements (granted this is not always as easy) you can very easily share the burden of raising children in European countries, especially if you consider the hard fact that we have very generous welfare systems. It's a myth that keeps getting perpetuated, but honestly doesn't hold up to scrutiny. By the way another great video, more intellectual than most of the garbage on television.

[-haclong]

When I was in North Brabant (one of the Southern provinces of the Netherlands and the largest Catholic one) I noticed something really weird... Pregnant women🤰🏻, I live in a large city and I see maybe one or two pregnant women a week, here I saw more than 20 or 30 per hour.

This was insane to me because of how rare pregnancies are outside of the Roman-Catholic region.

[edjohnson]

Fertility rates are dropping globally, this is well known.

If you look at a country like Nigeria, it’s less known that the fertility rate for urban Christians is approximately 3.5 while the uneducated northern polygamous regions are as high as 7

The fall in fertility isn’t spread evenly, it would be interesting to see how this is reflected in Europe.

[abygorsonabor]

Population growth can mean in practical term for families to have 1+ kid than they already have - it makes relatively little difference in how much money or time you spend per increase in family size. If anything, it is easier to have another kid to help you with the younger one. The problem is the growing number of ppl, both women AND men that do not desire ANY children.

[bordab]

In the past, people had lots of children because they were cheap labour (and thus, income), especially in rural areas. We could emulate this to some extent by paying children state salaries, perhaps in the form of merit-based stipends (to ensure that parents are interested in properly raising their children, not just in making them).

A separate idea is to encourage young people to have children as early as possible (before their careers, not after), e.g. through student scholarships for married couples/parents.

Obviously, this would require social transfers and higher taxes, but the same applies to paying pensions in a childless and ageing society.

[zionarra]

Will the birth rate rise? Yes - it just won't be from the native born population.

[LarryWater]

In the US, marriage is not worth it for men because divorce rates are too high.

[gairionysten]

I don't think cultural pressure alone is going to be enough. Asian cultures are extremely family oriented, and yet have lowest birth rates in the world.