Musk: Tesla FSD is going to get 5x BIGGER!!

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[damianweiss]

Mrkia Will hardware 4 be updatable to h5, h6…?

[jemezname]

How do neural networks avoid over fitting?

[richardeagan]

Do you think HW3 can get to level 3 or higher, or will we need HW4?

[brianp]

Would it be feasible to upgrade HW3 inference processors in older vehicles without having to upgrade all cameras, etc.?

[kafiluzTheReal]

If you bought FSD, Tesla must upgrade your hardware for free to the version that is capable of autonomous driving. We've seen these updates from HW 2.5 to 3 already. So Tesla will be interested in offering their old HW customers FSD transfers to a newer model in the future.

[karimtoubal]

Is HW3 2x36TOPS going to be able to run the next compressed model with 5x parameters count or shall we expect HW3 to be stuck at V12.4 and HW4 to take over from this point. I was expecting this to happen but more around November once the 80000 H100 will be put in production.

[engr.scotty]

It was unclear from elon's comment whether or not HW3 Would run these new models. Tesla's engineers are pretty good so they might find a solution. It will be interesting to see if the software line bifurcates into HW3 and HW4. This is not taking into account HW4's better cameras. Which in my view will be necessary for higher speeds. It drives like a teenager only looking right in front of the car instead of a more experienced driver who looks down the road inorder to give themselves time to make a good decision.

[richbl]

Glad you all made it back home after ordeal that you went through with the Bolt. Don't you love Mary Barra now?

[rustyfox]

Do we know how many parameters FSD has roughly ? Also HW3 has two FSD chips, originally it was for fail safe, but I believe both chips are being utilised as the compute load has increased. Is that true ?

[STxFisherman]

I have always wondered why my Tesla seems to go backwards in progress with various updates, (i.e. it used to have speed limits down almost perfectly and now it does a terrible job at obeying speed limits). This zig-zag and up and down in the performance of the FSD is directly related to what you described here. Thanks for the great clarification and explanation. I hope that Tesla engineers can figure out a feasible way to improve Hardware 3 computers by adding on a component that will allow it to perform and run nearly as efficiently as Hardware 4. It sure is an exciting time in the evolution of FSD.

[ETODD]

I feel like what you are saying (in a nutshell) is that the vehicle/computer will be able to see better?

[mnhsty]

I noticed with 12.3.6 it was amazing in unusual situations but made a hash of normal driving.

[DonBrowningRacing]

Incredible performance by you and your incredible brain big guy!
Please keep it coming!

[BLAISEDAHL]

I think about the path of FSD development as a story with every roadblock being another chapter in the book.

It will be fascinating to look back at the entire journey once FSD reaches robotaxi readiness.

[lenasianight]

Does having 5x more parameters in your model mean that the inference computer will need 5x more RAM in order to store and run the model? If so how can HW3 do it if it still has the same memory?

[perengstrom]

Got my new model 3 LR Friday (Sweden), delivered with software 11. Maaany false positives regarding speed warnings. Got a software update to SW 12 on friday evening, big improvement regarding the speed DB, most of the false positives gone, but driving saturday with SW 12 Autopilot (beta) panic braking at 90 km/h two times in a day for no apparent reason. Almost gave me heart attacks two times franticly trying to understand why the car went panic braking BEEP! BEEP! BEEP! BEEP! at speed with no traffic around. Not driving with Autopilot (beta) any more! Manual steering with adaptive cruise control works fine, I love the car.

Road speed database a lot better with SW 12 compared to SW 11, but still many false positives, imagined speed changes when there are none.

To summarize: can't use Auto Pilot in Sweden, and ignore the speed warnings, turn the sound off and just drive. You can drive on a 90 km/h highway eastward and the speed warning says it is 90, but when you turn around and drive back westward on the same piece of highway the alarm bells goes off saying the speed limit is now 80 km/h on the same piece of highway going the opposite direction.

The EU says it is law to use it, but it gives so many false positives that you just give up and doesn't give at s**t. Ignore it, turn the warning sound off and absolutely don't use Autopilot - you will get rear ended when the car panic brakes for no reason in high traffic.

Cant wait for them to unlock true FSD so the car will function ok. As it stands now in Sweden? Model 3 Highland is a brilliant car, but to be fair, my 2013 Ford Focus has better driver ergonomics, I don't know why Tesla omitted the blinker stalks, the blinker buttons are nice as long as you don't drive in round abouts. I have driven in certainly ten of them today, and going 1/4 around works fine going right directly, even 1/2 way trough is ok, but going 3/4 around? Just fu*k it, drive out without blinking because you are staring at the steering wheel trying to find and press the right blinker button not paying attention to the road! I am sorry, but Tesla fu*ked up when they removed the blinker stalk.

And don't say FSD will take care of it, if that where the case, why sell the cars with steering wheels at all?

What am I teaching FSD when I drive through round abouts with no turning stalk? I am teaching FSD to turn blinker right when going through 1/4 and 1/2 trough, and when going 3/4 through a round about I am teaching FSD to either indicate right turn or left turn, or not to indicate at all. Going through 3/4 of a round about is a random thing really.

[imconsequetau]

I expect that the efficiency of the inference AI in HDW-3 cars can still be further improved, but this will require *_much_* more front-end processing during AI training.

We may need to wait for NVIDIA GPUs to be installed at the Austin Giga-factory. Or perhaps Tesla will lease time on the X servers.

[appl]

Thank you, Dr. KNOW IT ALL! Appreciate the information!!!

[petro-drlg-eng]

Enjoy your trip and hope you get some response on your coffee visit! The future is coming faster than most realize!

[stevedowler]

A little math diversion: At the basic level, every simple operation like add, subtract, multiply, divide can be reduced to variations on addition. Subtraction is reiterated addition of negative one, multiply is reiterated addition, divide is reiterated subtraction. Even exponentiation is just accelerated addition. Ok, back to the topic.