Go Figure: Predicting the World with Math

Every Google search, OKCupid date, and Netflix recommendation, and even the items and prices you see at the grocery store is uses massive amounts of data. Algorithms of increasing complexity make sense of this ever-expanding mountain of data, and are helping us achieve unprecedented insights into medicine and other fields, create even more powerful computers, and much more.

This program is part of the Big Ideas series, supported by the John Templeton Foundation.

Participants: James Fowler, Steven Strogatz, Andrew W. Lo, Seth Lloyd
Moderator: Ira Flatow

00:00 - Predicting the World with Math introduction.
1:35- Ira Flatow's Introduction.
2:42 - Participant Introductions.
4:35 - How much data is there in the world?
11:24 - What is big data and machine learning?
14:01 - Will we need new tools to analyze all of this data?
19:57 - Will we be able to track everything you do 24/7?
26:36 - Are there ant natural algorithms that can predict our world?
34:18 - Can we use FaceBook to make predictions of the world?
42:32 - Does god play dice with the universe?
50:06 - Asking better questions to get better data.
59:05 - Can we predict when society will change it's mind?
1:05:17 - How will quantum computing change the future?
1:13:05 - Predicting how a disease will spread.
1:17:43 - Why was the SARS epidemic stunted from predictions?
1:21:23 - How do you all approach a problem from your different decisions.
1:27:26 - Demographics and marketing in a social world.

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[LaureanoLuna]

0:45 Self-referential loops give rise to paradoxical situations in which forecasting becomes impossible. This is an important key to many phenomena from logic to system theory.

[Helpie]

How about asking an Actuary next time?
They specialise in predicting the future and computing tons of data

[xenexphobia]

wow amazing dialogues. very smart folks

[nocancelcultureaccepted]

I’ve watched this conference 8 years ago and watching it now. I’m learning nothing but it’s interesting.

[marvelhero]

I can't believe so many people are OK with all this big brother shit these companies are getting away with.

[nimim.markomikkila]

44:00 In five million years we don´t know where Ur-nus will be... but we can predict it´s still at the bottom:D

[lte]

My favorite speakers: Steven Strogatz, Andrew Lo, and Seth Lloyd.

[Beesmakelifegoo]

What about the growing number of homeless
People?
What to do?
Educate people as Global Change?
Invest in SolarStocks?
How much will electricity cost as demands grows?
Can we vote for people who take action,
Who tells the truth?

[dscottboris]

Ya thanks for using my family for this experiment…

[johnfarris]

Things only change half way every generation, no matter what they tell you.

[thebudkellyfiles]

The things that we can understand or predict with math are few and far between. Essentially the entire universe around us is chaotic- with behavior that is unpredictable no matter how much precision we are able to apply to the measurement of their current state. Even the basic laws of physics are only true in isolation, not in reality. For example, the earth doesn't travel around the sun, it travels around the common center of gravity of the earth+sun. In fact, it revolves around the center of gravity of the The Laws of Gravitation are just simplifications of what is happening. Everything in the universe is interactive and too complex to be described or predicted with much accuracy or precision. Thanks. It's all one big big big big thing...

[jimmycoulson]

Listen to 77:00 and think about the past year

[dennisestenson]

34:14 unfortunately when a sample from a population is too large, effects sizes can be misleading. And by sourcing data only from users of Facebook or the internet, sample bias can't be avoided.

[HladnorukiLuka]

If I understood this correctly, in 42:50 Seth Lloyd said that the motion of the planets amplifies quantum fluctuations. Doesn't chaos arise from the macroscopic complexity of the system, like the number of bodies involved, the fact that the system is not closed, mass loss through cosmic rays etc? OK, quantum fluctuations at the Big Bang are the source of the distribution of the matter which eventually led to the formation of Solar System as it is, among else. But if we consider Solar System from now on, it is hard to see how quantum fluctuations can influence the predictions. They would be, firstly, insignificant in comparison with macroscopic phenomena, and secondly, they would cancel out at the astronomical level.

[innovativeworldnet]

When a top economy guy doesnt know a s*** about the risk we are taking and the cost we will pay in near future. Economics risk managment fall short in the complexity of real science fields.

[hoptoads]

What's the probability I'll watch this to the en...

[_.-._.-._.-_.-._.-._.-_.-._.-]

smart folks and what a wow; i need to refresh my all math to have a better prediction for some futures . peace.'

[dscottboris]

Hey I am an unemployed string theorists, but I don’t code well, so I guess I just go surf an follow natures natrural strings…

[kevinhelms]

Watching this in 2021 when the Pandemic question comes up towards the end is a bit surreal...