Aerosols & Rapid Climate Change with Leon Simons & Eliot Jacobson

In this Climate Chat episode, we will discuss the role of aerosols in the recent rapid acceleration of global warming as well as how aerosols have impacted warming since the industrial revolution. My guests for this discussion is climate scientist Leon Simons and Prof. Eliot Jacobson

Leon Simons is a climate scientist based in the Netherlands. He was a co-author with James Hansen on last year's "Global Warming in the Pipeline" paper that discussed the recent acceleration in global warming. Leon's work has focused recently on changes in aerosol emissions from ships and the impact of those changes on climate change. You can access Leon's research writings here:

Prof. Eliot Jacobson received his Ph.D. in mathematics from the University of Arizona in 1983. He was a professor of mathematics at Ohio University from 1983 to 1998, getting tenure in 1989. From 1999 to 2009, he was a Visiting Associate Professor of Computer Science at UC Santa Barbara and this position turned into a full-time teaching (Lecturer) position. Prof. Jacobson then pursued his interest in gambling and became a consultant to the gambling industry.

James Hansen's May 2024 update: "Comments on Global Warming Acceleration, Sulfur Emissions, Observations"

Landmark "Global Warming in the Pipeline" paper by James Hansen, Leon Simons, and others:

Climate Chat interview with James Hansen:

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[dbadagna]

The amount of 45.2 inches of rain was indeed recorded in the area of Brevard, North Carolina in the three days between September 24 and 27, 2024.

[dianewallace]

1:37:00 I use the term "superlinear" instead of "exponential" to describe the rate increases.

[kimkozar]

Leon and Eliot, thank you so much for your efforts and information. Sometimes Dan gets interrupted on accident and it would be nice if that wasn’t the case. I know it’s insignificant compared to the information passed here, but I just offer this as a way to improve the experience for all. 🤗🤗🤗

[collapseaphorisms]

Dammit it. Missed the live feed.

Cheers all

[Lyra]

Dan Miller interrupts too often and for too long. But Eliot and Leon are great guests.

[AdamMcPherson]

Just watching your first comment about AI being used to make AI more energy efficient and was reminded of another AI-energy convo I saw and thought to run it by a friend for their take to share here, with some additional promptings.

They said: AI's role in fossil fuel extraction can exacerbate climate change by increasing the efficiency and speed of resource extraction. Companies like Shell are using AI to accelerate oil and gas exploration, potentially increasing the amount of fossil fuels extracted from a given project. This could delay the transition to renewable energy and push back the date of peak oil, but it may also lead to faster depletion of resources, potentially bringing peak oil sooner. The increased supply could drive demand, worsening climate change impacts and risking surpassing the worst-case scenarios outlined by the IPCC.

[cuana]

I live in SW Ohio and we supposedly received 32” over the last few days. Insane.

[gautingmusik]

1:43:28 @DrJamesEHansen pipeline values are low
there are more than 10°C overheating in the pipelines
ECS=8K @leafwax

[dbadagna]

01:36:32
What does "psi-com" mean?

[robertm]

I think when you show graphs about sea-ice extent, you should explain it to audience(what it means i.e. how its calculated) and also use the more illustrative thing about the situation with ice, that is volume.

[teethompson]

Yes, it was the growing phenomenon of rapid intensification. But no, it did not come out of nowhere. It was noted and tracked as usual.
This is an important point to make.

[robertm]

Eliot, exponent can be under two right?

[pokemonjodeldodel]

What are your estimates on additional global warming in the pipeline if we take everything in account? Let's say we got to net zero now and we loose sea ice in the summer in the Arctic and have reduced sea ice in the Antarctic. 0.7 to 1 C?

[davddjg]

The economy is a wholly owned subsidiary of the environment/climate

[olivergill]

Leon hasn't spoken yet at 25 minutes, but Eliot now getting into a comfortable stride. Huge subject . Finally he says what everyone really needs to digest- 'This is the foreseeable future and we will all have to step up.' I don't think it's at all ok doing this to 2 generations coming up: Generation Z — born 1997-2012. ...Generation Alpha — born 2013-2025. The rest of us should have been working double tides for at least last 30 years to put this right. Tough.

[louishennick]

Really rather totally doom the economy than doom the ecology

[dianewallace]

I can relate to a # of large Hurricane analogy per day for the EI not the other analogy that y'all keep using.

[gautingmusik]

42:33 clouds build around SO2 nucleons
SO2 reflects UV sun energy back to space.
SO2 cools
10Mt SO2 2019
2Mt SO2 IMO2020
0.4Mt SO2 2026
SO2 is not linear cooling

[toadvine]

This warming appeared* three years after 2020. But there was weird bubbling during this period. Was the triple dip La Nina a nervous system redundancy -- a negative forcing, Gaia trying to right herself and eventually failing?

[robertm]

Every somewhat sensible person who look at the data can see, that the change is accelerating and at the same time exponential, as one can always observe certain time frame etc. determine an exponent for that period. A bit semantics from Eliot imo. Am not a mathematician though i.e. not sure.