CAN I ACTUALLY PREDICT THE UNPREDICTABLE

It's in the charts

#stockmarketforbeginners #bitcoin #fed #inflation #cryptocurrency

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[Kemozabi]

One thing i immediately noticed is the undercut/ failed cycle lows still closed a higher low.... i wonder if that is the difference maker.... usually is the tiebreaker for me as to which way I lean

[criticalcrossroads]

Even if Bob is correct, the chart suggests the current cycle low will indeed be taken out. I guess if I have capital on the side lines, there will be an opportunity to buy something cheap. Wouldn't mind buying some dividend paying oil stocks when oil is trading at -$40 per barrel. If only I had bought more when I had the chance.

[Franz-ch]

We should all be grateful to be following you. Everything is in the charts. I tried to subscribe to level 3 member but it does not allow me to do it. thanks

[Labochain.Stratégie]

The Million dollar question : if a massive cyber attack occurs thanks to our Davos friends, will the run be totally stopped ? Or even worse, are the altcoins going to die ?

[HndrxxFantasyFootball]

Are black swans really black swans when the WEF warns us in advance? 🤔

[lighttrades]

Everything you're saying makes sense, especially the Russell breaking out of its trend. Seems your thesis becoming more and more validated.

[mydogjesus]

Camel... great video, and i agree that this is probably a blow off top on the way with a left translated cycle. I also feel that we should be grateful for whatever level this can go to, and appreciate the gains. Especially after all of us losing so much in the last bear market. If it goes to 75-85K we should all be extremely satisfied. If not, we are just greedy. lol

[grantpalmer]

What a time to be alive! Thanks camel for interesting content, A big narrative I was considering is a potential ‘reset’ at some point in the next 1-2 years that aligns with the estimated 72 trillion baby boomer great wealth transfer ie. Reset the global markets for the next leg up of transferred capital inflows. A topic from the Davos meeting I found interesting was ushering in wealthy young influential people who some day would become leaders in their respected fields, to I assume prepare them to carry on the organisations framework and all that is associated with ‘protecting’ our society and markets, they are not getting any younger there and this might be just cause and effect of inheriting wealth and selling assets to free up cash, but if everything is on sale then huge money would enter the markets this way over the coming 5-10years period. Just coincidence or speculation at this point but it supports what you allude to in the charts.

[JuniperDustFarmBoy]

Interesting look. We've got a lot of things lining up in March btfp (Will that lead to the fed rugging more banks?), potential negative cpi, rate cuts, cdbc, China falling apart, wars etc. Arthur Hayes posted an interesting article yesterday "Yellen or Talkin" it's worth a read.

[Kemozabi]

One of the worst "black swans" i can see is the outright seizure of Russian assets... this would likely crush the bond market, sending everything else parabolic into an economic decline that won't have the ability to force new liquidity

[gtcstorm]

This is where moving averages and indicators can help, no matter the opinion on where we are in a cycle. Historically speaking, when the market gets below key averages it is a warning, at very least. As of now we are in bull mode. I do not need to understand a cycle to know when a price range has been violated. No one indicator or approach is fool proof, we have to put it all together and it depends on trading timeframe. I hope deflation does not come, it will suck. BTC and altcoins will be dead.

[joaoafonso]

Something is coming for sure, the question is when

[Ves_lft]

If you draw a line trough Bob's Cyc. Lows you'll see a line.
If you are to have a line Camel with the Cyc. Lows that you suggest and we are to draw a line, the drop to match that line will be dreadful!!
I hope that's not the case though, I hope the pull back which we might experiance to be manageable but the more you know the sell you think it's not gonna be!!

[simphiweraymondmajola]

That was very fascinating analysis....I believe it will happen I`ll start planning my strategy around it, charts usually don`t lie like our politicians...thanks camel.

[Leankin]

Assuming the channels main hypothesis: melt up and then severe plunge (for the S&P). I'm not convinced about deflation nor a 4 year cycle low nor a hidden black swan but, let's say, any kind of "hard" landing. What does that mean for BTC (if it has a sharp decline from 40K)? Could we expect an ATH afterwards? What is the future of the asset without a 2024-25 bull run?

[crisper]

I’ll be buying that sharp plunge if it happens.

[peterschattmann]

Wouldn't it be great idea to make a video on a discussion between Bob Loukas and Camel. I could get behind that.

[dannydehob]

Thanks for update Camel (Hopefully wont play out)Would love to know your thoughts on the 18.6 year property cycle which predicts a blow off top in 25, 26? which should correlate to traditional and crypto markets (Or so I have heard)

[TheHoody]

This sort of timing would still fit with rate cuts and a recession crash due to that. Especially considering how much and how fast rates were increased. Perfect narrative for CBDC introduction of course as well. So long as it's only a sharp downturn, then a quick upturn for more years to come with low rates and money printing on I'm fine. Ultimate buying opportunity for Crypto imo. But I guess your theory would mean left translated cycle and therefore no up for a while. Or ? Were previous cycles left or right translated ?

[m_r__r_o_b_o_t]

As an experiment I just took the SPY chart from 1999 onwards and added markers at cycle lows such that "equidistance" between lows was maximised. i.e. most evenly distributed lows I could get in the timeframe. I ended up with 7-year cycles at 2002, 2009, 2016, 2022 (late). Interestingly this "predicts" a major low around 2028-29, which just happens to coincide with the expected 18.6 year cycle low. Not putting this forward as any kind of hypothesis, just thought it was interesting to see what came out looking at the chart in a naive way.