'Superforecasting': The people that predict the future – BBC REEL

The power to predict the future is often the stuff of myths and superstition. But according to the Good Judgement project by the American psychologist and political scientist, Philip Tetlock, the ability to predict the future is a skill that can be learned and developed. He has spent 40 years studying how some people are particularly good at seeing what is around the corner.

Video by Next Stop Stories
Executive Producer: Camelia Sadeghzadeh

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#bbc #bbcreel #bbcnews

[patreekotime]

The funny part of the editing of this video is that while laughing off tarot cards, the researchers basically just rediscovered what fortune tellers already knew, which is that keen observation of human behavior and a knowledge of the workings of human societies is the key to telling fortunes. Reading cards for instance is not just literally reading the cards, its also about reading the client, hearing their inflections, and understanding their wants, desires, regrets, motivations, etc. Of course the fortune teller also excells at pandering and is even better at telling people what they want to hear than they are at making accurate future predictions.

But the principle is the same and it is one that no doubt goes back to the Sumerian astrologers who for all of their computations of astronomical positions, used their own judgement to make the final prediction.

[brian]

It really is about learning to disregard the received 'wisdom' of your society, overlaid, embellished and simply degraded by time as it is, when reality is clearly presenting a different story. This video was focused heavily on the process of collecting and comparing information in an analytic way. The weak part of this is that one is relying on a basic pool of information which itself may me greatly limited.

[KxNOxUTA]

it can suck to have that capacity. Half of the time you feel crazy, cause you pick up on patterns years early and when everyone ends up shocked by the turn of events, you get frowned upon for not reacting with shock, as you've already felt dead inside for a while over trying to warn ppl, but understanding they lack the data to do so and you not being perceived as creditable enough to serve as enough reason for change.

It isn't before several rounds (granted you survive them and stay sane enough) that people eventually figure out, that following your "gut feeling" might not be a bad idea. The concept of Highly Sensitive Persons (HSP) plays into this. Based on how ... was it ~25% of animal herds being born with more perceptive nervous systems and being the first to flee. Them being followed by their peers and thus having better survival chances as a group. And some of us being born (& trained by life) that way, too.

[SMD]

In the prediction realm, life is pretty interesting. Musically, looking back in 2010 I kinda somewhat predicted an emo singer to go country even though the event didn't happen yet but did in 2013. And same for other bands or singers from a different scenario. As for other stuff in the world hard to decipher within my predictions but deja vu for sure as well

[PeteTash]

Around July last year a friend had a dream that my father-in-law would die in the near future. A few months later my father-in-law went for a scan and discovered he had late stage metastatic cancer, we helped to nurse him but they died 4 weeks later. Many aspects of the dream were completely accurate. 2 months later we are still in shock as he wasn't particularly old and no-one, including himself, had any idea he was ill. But the freakiest part of all is my friend's prediction, it's added such a surreal element to the whole thing. Since all this I am studying quantum physics, psychic ability, time distortion, anything to try to understand where the dream came from and how it was so accurate.

[MetaITurtle]

Only time I saw things from the future was in a dream. No lie. But it only happen once or twice and it was when I was a child.

[harveywoods]

The closest I came to this was participating in the IARPA Good Judgement platform for Team Carbon.

Wish I did more there, but was happy that my research got me to that point.

[lagreen]

It was clear to me by age ten that there was no free will - that events flowed into and around each other and that any choice was an illusion. If you study Mathematics you can find this in detail. But strangely, that makes me think that the future could be very predictable - if you have followed the event chains and can reason from them.

[davidjones]

Criminal this only has 12k views out of a human population of 8 billlion -

[guff]

The future is easy to predict, as evolution is a foregone conclusion

[TheFPSChannel]

I PREDICT I'm not going to hire this post production team.
OMG. Did someone get a deal on a cheap pack of plugins and run to nearest bulk stock site they could find?
This is WAY too busy to follow. Stop applying the same effects over & over. Simplify the concepts visually.
What he has to say is really interesting but the barrage of visuals chokes him out. 

Pair down the imagery to things that directly relate to what he is talking about - not loose interpretations of his concepts and dozens of symbolic images. Focus on what he's saying and try a little voice-over to sew things together rather that awkward silence and forcing the viewer to read huge text on the screen.

Watch more 'Vox' videos and fewer 'Half as Interestings' (which I can only listen to for the same reason).

[darktraveler]

The truth is more important than anything else, without it, you can not survive or thrive in reality.

Pretending or wishing something is or isn't true does not make it so.

Can you handle a truth?



















There is no universe in which Ukraine defeats Russia.

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[adamrios]

People can predict the future sometimes but that if god allows that to happen for reason protect your beliefs and stand firm