The Confirmation Bias

Confirmation bias is a tendency to look for, interpret, and recall information in ways that affirm our preconception. Whenever we encounter objective facts on an issue we look at them through the lens of our own beliefs. As a result, we see and overrate where the two intercept. The bias is strongest for emotionally charged issues or when we search for desired outcomes. This joke illustrates it quite well...


A special thank you to our patrons: Avigail, Badrah, Cedric Wang, David Markham, Denis Kraus, Don Bone, Esther Chiang, Eva Marie Koblin, John Zhang, Julien Dumesnil, Mathis Nu, and all the others!!! You keep us going!

Read the entire script here:

SOURCES:

Classroom activity:

[drachaksakcha]

I always knew confirmation bias was a thing and now this video proves it!

[battleframestudios]

"Familiarity is not easily distinguished from truth." That right there is the most important thing in this video. We see it everywhere nowadays. Everyone jumps on a bandwagon just because they've heard the same few phrases or sentiments uttered over and over and never questioned them. The way Daniel said it was so beautifully simple and easy to understand. I applaud him for that.

[acoolducksloveryeahweexist]

Psychologist and Nobel prize winner Daniel Kahneman said "A reliable way to make people believe in falsehoods is frequent repetition. Because familiarity is not easily distinguished from truth"

[srijasarkar]

I'm a Psychology Masters student and I cannot thank this channel enough! LOVE IT ♥️

[prasastiaich]

Reading about manifestion a lot and eventually forming assumptions that good things happen because i constantly repeat it so everytime a good thing happens to me i immediately associate it with all the good things i have been doing like manifestion and forgetting negative experiences so i cant counter it with how powerfully 'manifestion' has positively impacted my life is a confirmation bias example for me. Like i knew this existed but never have i heard it spoken out nor written down to exactify my thought. This video is great and i am interested more than ever to keep reading about this!

[PlanetSenzu]

Just being honest - - I have a very negative confirmation Bias. My mom brought me up to expect the worst of people and growing up I have had more of the negative actions confirmed than the positives. Super simple example "Joe says "anytime you need me i'll be there no matter what." I have learned that people say things like that without any actual substance so naturally I write it off as "yeah right". I'm a very independent person and do my best to handle situations on my own but one day I really needed "Joe" so I reached out to him telling myself he wont be able to help. Sure enough Joe 100% says he cant help nor does he even provide any type of alternative answer. I'm not saying by any means EVERY single person is like this but chances are 9 times out of 10 I expect that type of result. I'm trying to change my mindset on this and its a long journey in the making. I'm 28.

[Ricky-nnbe]

3:52 tell me I'm not the only one who thought his nostril is his left eye...

[TheRealGuywithoutaMustache]

The perfect way to end the year. This is a surprise and a good one at that.

[kirkury]

2, _4_ 6_ as a sequence is ambiguous. Detecting a specific pattern or sequence depends on what mathematical principle relates the first 3 numbers. It is intentionally undefined here, so each person applies their own interpretation.

[itWouldBeWise]

This is a fundamentally important concept to understand before critical thinking can even BEGIN.

[ossen]

Confirmation Bias - survival of the Ego
If I am aware of judging for the sake of being right, I have taken a big step towards open mindedness.

[Yui]

Confirmation bias is less predominate in people who genuinely don't care either way. The more someone cares about a subject the more skeptical you should be about what they tell you. If someone cares a lot about an issue then you can bet that they've ignored opposition the whole time while allowing all support to build up their tower of ignorance higher. These are people with decades of tower building who don't even have the capacity to imagine what it's like to be on any other team and their likelihood of changing their mind is a strong 0%. They've grown old, their lives stable, their social circles locked in place, and changing what they think now is too radical and risky for their comfortable lives.
It's also worth noting that a large undetermined percentage of the population has a wildly different approach to beliefs. Instead of using their own mental ability to form beliefs, they simply preserve energy by adopting whatever beliefs are most popular in their desired circles. These are the same kinds of people who fail to understand that having social approval for a belief isn't the same thing as that belief actually being true. They just lack the ability to process information so the best they can do is copy what other people think. To them, there is no difference between people thinking they are right and actually knowing the truth. This fault has led to popularized immorality throughout our history as a species.

[mueezadam]

2:13 An atheist doesn’t have to be raised in a family that is atheistic to be able to reach an apistivist outlook. However, to become a Christian, or a follower of any other Abrahamic faith, you need first be exposed to the mythos in order to even be able to accept it.

What I mean is this: How was a Polynesian living all the way on the other side of the world during the spread of Christianity ever expected to convert within his lifetime?

Anyway, your video was a beautifully concise explanation of the topic and major kudos to the illustrator!

[HumansOfVR]

*_Always happy to see you upload sprouts!_*
Addicted to these illustrations

[tanjapeters]

2 - 4 - 6 - 2 (repeat) / 2 4 7 (comes after 2 4 6) / 2 - 4 - 6 - 0 (when the original sequence starts with 0 and repeats) / 2 - 4 - 6 - 6 (when the last number becomes first of the next sequel)/ 2 - 4 - 6 - 8 (repetition plus 2) / 2 - ( 4 - 6 ) - 8 (equals - 8: as a math problem) et cetera. Let us please ad the context to an equation.

[cathjimin]

My first thought was 8, because pairs.. but then I thought about 10, because you add the numbers too...

[M.S.K-escw]

For me: Not listening to diverse opinions, not considering different options from the one you have, is a weakness, better described as CONFIRMATION BIAS.

[omerd]

2, 4, 6, 163998.


Take OEIS series A258107 (2, 3, 4, 82000), double each term, and subtract 2.


Obviously.


:)

[TorgerVedeler]

Confirmation bias is also influenced by desire. If you want to believe something is true, or not true, then you are more likely to hold that belief. And since we need our social support network to survive, we are also more likely to agree with our peers even if we know they are wrong.

[Gloomygarden]

well, it could have been a coincidence that 2 4 6 have some rule behind them, so I suggest that the answer is any random number.