Recession for (Almost) Everyone! || Peter Zeihan

I was scanning the financial news this morning and realized Germany was in recession. In my morning brief I was informed Japan was in recession as well. On a call with a client someone brought up that the United Kingdom had joined the downers club. A quick convo with the staff revealed the same was true for Hungary and Ireland. And Greece and Lithuania and Estonia and Finland. Israel probably as well, while Australia, New Zealand, France, Spain and Italy are only a rounding error away. China’s data, such that it is, suggests that the Middle Kingdom is by most definitions at best recession-adjacent.

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Where to find me on Social Media?

#recession #economy #collapse

[Odin]

This is definitely the channel I go to when I want to cheer myself up in the morning...

[johnwhite-qs]

My life is virtually recession proof. I closed my restaurant business of ten years to move to the mountains and learn furniture making. I don’t really follow world events or politics anymore because it has become irrelevant to me. Life could not be better. I met a woman here and we both have the same dream of building a home with our own hands. We already grow our own vegetables. Stop trying to be a part of the world and focus your energies on your immediate community

[Riggsnic_co]

I believe the retirement crisis will get even worse. Many struggle to save due to low wages, rising prices, and exorbitant rents. With homeownership becoming unattainable for middle-class Americans, they may not have a home to rely on for retirement either.

[davidbarry]

I think Peter's point is that countries with shrinking workforces will try to export their way to increase economic growth.... then discover that this doesn't work if EVERYONE is trying to do it all at the same time, especially if the USA becomes more isolationist/protectionist too.

[ostevoostevo]

Here in Taiwan, economically speaking, things seem to be going pretty well. It certainly feels that way to me. I could be wrong, though....I'm no expert...We never had a lockdown remember...So our economy wasn't trashed like so many countries' economies were. We don't rely on tourism and everyone is still buying our chips...

[DjDmt]

Here in Aussie we are propping up our gdp via immigration. It's a bit out of control as there is a housing crisis as well. But when the bubble pops, it will pop hard, we havnt had a recession since the 90s

[JefferyDuns]

Our economy is like a flailing fish, fighting for its life. The normal state of the U.S. economy is actually very bad. Because of this it goes into convulsive spasms fighting to grow any way it can out of desperation. Tricks, gimmicks, rule changes try to stimulate the economy and prevent it from falling but they only bring temporary relief to people since, when you factor in inflation we are declining.

[jkbrown]

Still shaking out the inflection point of the mid-20th century

"The increasingly successful war against infectious diseases had brought about during the nineteen-forties a great increase in the number of old people, a new interest in pension plans, and—since the tendency of business concerns to lay off employees at sixty-five or even sixty was still gaining headway—an acute question whether pensions beyond that age would not constitute a burden too heavy for most companies to carry. Meanwhile the jump in the birth rate was beginning by 1950 to swamp an already overcrowded elementary school system, and threatened to do so increasingly for many years to come. So it was that as the nineteen-fifties began, Americans in their wage-earning years were faced with the prospect of having to support, in one way or another, more human creatures senior and junior to themselves than ever before in recent history."

Allen, Frederick Lewis. The Big Change: America Transforms Itself, 1900–1950 (1952)

[jacobwwarner]

Would be interested hearing more about Japan since (a) i think theyre the first country expected to pass the denographic inversion problem, so they will have dealt with this problem longest, (b) they moved a lot of their labor intensive operations overseas closer to export markets (i.e. Toyota manufacturing in NA), and (c) they are one of if not the furthest advanced in robotics and automated industry.

[bennyboy]

Consumption in Scandinavia isn't down because people have gotten old but because we have floating interest on the house loans.
So interest payment have gone up by 400% in just 2 years, from 1, 5% interest rate to 6%. That is why consumption is down in northern Europe. Still very low unemployment rate(sure that is the last to fall in a recession)

[KabukiStarship]

Looking at my eBay and Craigslist sales, it's been a recession for a while. I was a canary in the coal mine.

[MrLuigiFercotti]

Friend owns a small winery, said everyone in the business is worried. Sales are down.

[MasterMalrubius]

Carmel-By-The-Sea is one of my guilty pleasures. Beautiful place but not a place I could ever afford to in.

[RomitDholakia]

India growing 8.4% in last quarter is slow growth. Thanks for telling us that Peter!

[janebishop]

You know I believe these trends can be positive. What needs to happen is that prices of housing needs to drop dramatically and fall back down to Earth through reduced demand and reduced speculation. Homes should be homes not ATM machines and speculation for wealth. When that trend that we've seen especially over the last twenty years begins to be reversed, then we'll have a much needed rebalancing!!! Good news about China but I feel for the severe hardships the Chinese people may be in for.

[McD-jr]

I really like each one of your shows. Have a nice day.

[davidmaher]

AU and NZ are in recession. GDP is staying above water due to immigration.

[darthnihilus]

I have never been rich, not even close. Those of us who grew up with nothing were never affected too much by the economic ups and downs. Just appreciative of what I have and every new thing I accomplish is actually new to me 😊
Life hack

[Abyss-Will]

As a 31 years old person, I'd love to do my part and help with this need for consumption driven growth...
If only I had more than one dollar to my name !!!

[itcamefromthedeep]

Canada's inflation numbers are off. Stats Canada's basket has housing at 30% of the budget, which is a punchline. Habitat for Humanity survey findings: "Half of Canadians (49%) are spending 50% or more of their household income on housing costs. For Canadians aged 18-34, those spending 50% or more of their household income on housing costs jumps to 64%."