IHME | COVID-19 Model Update | April 6

Dr. Chris Murray of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation summarizes key points from the COVID-19 model data analysis for Europe on April 6, 2020.

The Institute for Health Metrics & Evaluation is an independent population health research center at UW Medicine, part of the University of Washington, that provides rigorous and comparable measurement of the world's most important health problems and evaluates the strategies used to address them. IHME makes this information freely available so that policymakers have the evidence they need to make informed decisions about how to allocate resources to best improve population health.

[leedavis]

I understand models are only as good as the data you have, how the public decrease transmission and how each country differs in social density etc. But how over the last months have you reduced some foretasted deaths by so much and increased ones such as the UK to over 60k. Just looking at basic information like where they are on the curve, current rates and country density you can see they were just wrong. Already you have cut the UK to 35k with very little extra data. I understand it is difficult but some basic common sense needs to be put to the mathematical forecasts to see what was driving such large errors. We need good forecasts to have public do the right thing, eliminate bad decisions, have the media drive the right messages and in the end stop the extremes of government making this a political battle.

[brianmartin]

it seems as though hospital beds needed are still about half of what is projected. Will there be another update?

[bryanvanromburgh]

This guy is weird. He’s a public health expert but recently wrote an article advocating for immediate mass immigration to the US to stimulate the economy. In the middle of a pandemic? Is he pretending to be an economist?

[johnjoeflanagan]

Video deserves more media coverage and views. Well done IHME.