'Bloomberg Real Yield' (01/20/2023)

Katie Greifeld highlights the market-moving news you need to know. Featuring a round-table including Morgan Stanley's Vishy Tiruppatur, BlackRock's Gargi Chaudhuri and AllianceBernstein's Will Smith.
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[tushargupta]

Where is Jonathan ferro, I am missing double good mornings, please bring him back

[johndingle]

Ecb won't hike more than once. They face the same slowdown u.s. does. Just delayed by few months. This pumping of European assets in the name of self-fulfilling prophesies going to end the same way u.s. did.

[johndingle]

Policymakers are constantly reacting to the macro economy. And have neutered business cycles. We all know this by now. Companies don't know how to operate in downturns. Just getting a taste of it. But you see gov and fed stepping in already. Easing financial conditions and breaking the cycle of downturns. A weight lifter needs to tear muscle tissues, eat, rest. To build muscles. There's a cycle of destruction and creation. And we've neutered that. Snorting a line of coke everytime we get tired. Will have great output for about a week. Then crash.

Now economy is expected to suddenly grow out of a downturn, with only a few lines of monetary stimulus. As if we have some pent up energy and determination after binging on stimulus for years.

[johndingle]

Unable to maintain growth now that stimulus has been spent. Consumers will be dragged into higher inflation kicking and screaming. Or face depression. Economy has got the policymakers by the balls. Trapped into choosing between inflation or depression.

[johndingle]

Data is backwards looking. Serious slowdown started in December. Consumers are tapped out. Credit card companies will see a boom. Then followed by recession.

Gov and Fed will keep pumping markets. Afraid of a slowdown. Failed monetary experiment of mmt has failed. But gov and Fed won't let it go down.

[johndingle]

I expect gov will implement more fiscal stimulus by next year. Fed and gov will throw everything to prevent the biggest recession from a failed monetary experiment.

[diamandidimitrov]

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