The scariest climate science paper I've ever read?

This month a paper came out that honestly chilled me. It was about tipping points in climate - a well-known concept that the climate can change abruptly if certain conditions are met in certain elements of the climate system, such as excess melting of the Greenland ice sheet. That wasn't new. What was new was the threshold these tipping elements could flip - according to this research, we could be triggering some tipping elements already - and if we warm the planet by just 1.5°C then we are *likely* to do so.

The climate is still within our control. But if we keep emitting as we are, that isn't always going to be the case.

Every. Tenth. Of. A. Degree. Counts.

References:

---------- II ----------

---------- II ----------

Some stock footage courtesy of Getty.
Edited by Luke Negus.

Video about tipping points in climate and a new paper about climate tipping points, talking about the shutdown of the thermohaline circulation, permafrost thaw, collapse of ice sheets, and extinction of corals. This new paper from McKay et al showed that there isn't a neat relationship between cumulative carbon emissions and global warming - there can be step changes thanks to internal variability, rapidly pushing the Earth into different climates. In this video I talk about climate tipping points, how some are already possible today, and will become likely at just 1.5C of warming.

Huge thanks to my supporters on Patreon: Justin Warren, Jack Grimm, Angela Flierman, Alipasha Sadri, Calum Storey, Mattophobia, Riz, Jan Krüger, The Confusled, Wessel van der Heijden, Conor Safbom, William Pettersson, Paul H and Linda L, Simon Stelling, Gabriele Siino, Ieuan Williams, Candace H, Tom Malcolm, Marcus Bosshard, Leonard Neamtu, Shab Kumar, Brady Johnston, Liat Khitman, Kent & Krista Halloran, Rapssack, Kevin O'Connor, Timo Kerremans, Ashley Wilkins, Michael Parmenter, Samuel Baumgartner, Dan Sherman, ST0RMW1NG 1, Adrian Sand, Morten Engsvang, Cio Cio San, Farsight101, K.L, fourthdwarf, Daan Sneep, Felix Freiberger, Chris Field, ChemMentat, Kolbrandr, , Sebastain Graf, Dan Nelson, Shane O'Brien, Alex, Fujia Li, Will Tolley, Cody VanZandt, Jesper Koed, Jonathan Craske, Albrecht Striffler, Igor Francetic, Jack Troup, SexyCaveman , Sean Richards, Kedar , Omar Miranda, Alastair Fortune, bitreign33 , Mat Allen, Rafaela Corrêa Pereira, Colin J. Brown, Princess Andromeda, Mach_D, Thusto , Andy Hartley, Lachlan Woods, Dan Hanvey, Simon Donkers, Kodzo , James Bridges, Liam , Andrea De Mezzo, Wendover Productions, Kendra Johnson.

[stoatmuldoonfanclub]

I’m continually impressed by the number of papers et al contributed to.

[frbrable]

Anyone who's had an aquarium in their home has experience with tipping points. If you don't manage the excess nitrates that build up in this closed system through regular water changes, the aquarium WILL transition into a new system (dominated by unsightly algae and sick fish), often rapidly. And it can be very hard to reverse.

[jesseabrams]

One of the co-authors of the article here. Great to see coverage of our paper! Nice summary and thank you for getting this important information out to a broader audience!

[maverickjones]

I revisited my home after being away for 15 years. The seasons have changed. More extreme and often rain, hotter longer summers, bigger more dramatic cold fronts. Id imagine it’s not as obvious if you are in the same place constantly.

[pewbyhut]

This information has been published for about a decade (maybe more), but the optimistic/conservative climate organizations and press have always used unrealistic predictions that don't take into account much of the climate system (jetstream disruption, ocean warming & acidification, these tipping points, etc.).

This is why we're always hearing that things are "far worse than we imagined". The mainstream perspective has been slowly shifting toward what "extremists" have been saying for many years.

If one stops looking to the mainstream climate science information as the sole arbiter of truth in this realm, the nearness of these tipping points would be old news.

[KaizenTrainingLtd]

My research tells me that it's even worse than this great video suggests. It's not five to midnight any more - it's 3 o'clock in the bloody morning! This doesn't mean we should not act, or we should give up - just that we should all be honest about where we are, so that we can prioritise our actions, rather than pretending this is all still decades away. Thank you.

[zacrx]

It’s infuriating that with science so clear on this issue yet governments and corporations aren’t doing nearly enough

[nice]

You know it's serious when Simon doesn't try to end it on an optimistic note. We need action now and I hope more people can be aware of this news.

[dr.zoidberg]

When the scientists start talking like the activists, you know we're fucked.

[rodrigoc.goncalves]

Climate issues have always concerned me, and I personally struggle with how little I can do of impact to solve this problem. Reducing my emissions is something I try to do, but is rather insignificant if most of the world carries on with a "growth" mentality for personal and economic matters. I'm enrolling in an aeronautics engineering course, which perhaps isn't a path where I'll be doing something that relevant to this issue. The question is, what should on aim for, in order to be sure not to be just another person that fundamentally won't do anything to solve this huge problem in hands?

[arctrix]

it is so sad, that basically noting will be done, because neither politicians nor ceo's care even a little bit, even though they are effected as well

[benmcreynolds]

I've reached a point where I'm so self aware of the reality of situations that I'm just constantly numb because I know no matter how much people do or say: the people in control and in power positions won't do anything that comes anywhere close enough to help this situation. They do a PR project here & there to make it look like they are getting into addressing the situation but they aren't. Everything is so slow, so cumbersome, so tedious with bureaucracy/geopolitical legislation nonsense that it basically makes the simplest most straight forward stuff unattainable to achieve. *I swear a group of normal average people who are passionate and knowledgeable about things would be a million times better and efficient at controlling and running this situation than anything we currently have going on in the world. *I'm honestly a very optimistic and dreamy person that loves to think about all these amazing things we COULD do. I just get frustrated with how modern day society is honestly. That's all.

[miguelguerreiro]

I am not so optimistic as you are Simon. The things that we do not know and the tipping points that may have already been triggered but there is a delay on they response can be out there. What do you say about the deep sea waters that have been sucking all the extra emissions? What happens when they spit those out in a few hundred years? At this point we should just aim to control as much as possible the damage we have done, and deal with the worst that is about to come.

[shaunhall]

I'm worried about the methane that's being released. That methane wire is very close now.

[gunterification]

"The point of no return". Been hearing that since the 90's when I was a kid. Even with all the Kyoto, Paris, ... agreements global emissions are still rising thanks to China, India and africa.

[darylsprake]

The most important tiping point is methane release which is self-reinforcing and that tipping point has been passed

[RDKirbyN]

There is no room for addressing climate concerns under capitalism.

[dstarley]

With you on this one. This paper and the accompanying commentary ought to be mainstream news (without portraying doomsday scenario as the media like to do), yet it barely scratched the headlines. As you say, every 0.01 of a degree matters and we need everyone to take action now.

[yes]

I've known about the feedback effects for a while, but it's so terryfying that I felt depressed and numb. Recently I've been learning about some energy crops like paulovnia or Miscanthus giganteus and have a feeling that this is something that the little me can do. Especially paulovnia has stolen my heart and imo this tree should be much more mainstream and what's more they should plant it in Indian cities this year (but not doing it 😱). Their temperatures are so close to max wet bulb temperature that it makes me want to go there and shake every single one of them and tell them to immediately start growing trees. Unfortunately I can't do much more than spreading the idea.

[compostjohn]

We actually don't know when we cross a tipping point. We cross and at that moment, nothing looks different - the beginning of an exponential curve is just a doubling over a particular time frame - you have no idea how long that doubling will continue. It's when you look back on it that you can see it's exponential, and then it may very well be too late!