Computing in the 2020s

Future computing predictions from futurist Christopher Barnatt -- including the rise of AI and attentive computing, shrinking desktop PCs, mainstream NPUs, and Peak Smartphone.

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#FutureComputing #AttentiveComputing #PeakSmartphone #ExplainingComputers

[rm]

"Brains out in the cloud". I had a work colleague like that about 25 years ago. Oh sorry, that should have been "clouds" not "cloud". Bob

[AKIS_Proto]

We're getting closer and closer to what i like to call "The Black Ops" as referencing the call of duty sub-franchise. In bo1, it was man manipulating man, bo2 was man manipulating machine in the 2020's, and then machine manipulating man in the 2040's and 2050's if not also the 2060's. It's a very complex argument, but what i'm trying to say is.. we need to be very VERY careful about what we're doing with technology. Man's greatest undoing will be its inability to control the technology it has created.

[johncrunk]

I'm beginning to feel like a technology Luddite in many ways. It's not really because of my 7 decades of life, either. I have worked in very high-tech jobs for many years and really embraced change. But I see the effects of too much tech in people's daily lives and the way we have become more and more isolated as humans. You bring up very good points.

[saturno_tv]

Best way to start 2020. Greetings Chris!

[therushden]

Who knows what tomorrow brings? They sang. No one knows but Chris has a good idea what you can expect. Great video. It's scary and fascinating in equal measures.

[buggyridge]

Sounds a lot like what we predicted in 1979. I started working with AI in 1985. Q&A PFS Write and File. Wyse terminals connected to a UNIX mainframe (mid-1980's) were much more productive with minimal downtime. At USDA, we had 90% less IT specialists then than today also. I've seen few real advancement in productivity in the last 40 years, but much cooler devices, miniaturization and storage. The bottom line is getting things done and we're nowhere near as productive today getting work done on the ground as in 1985. Most of my staff spends a majority of time on their phones now. Other examples; AutoCAD on DOS in 1990 with 1 MB RAM is just about as fast as CAD on any new Windows platform. Most of our improvements in speed have been overshadowed by bloatware and too much eye candy. My preferred OS was IBM's OS2 but today is Linux as it has been since I started that journey with Red Hat in 1995.

[hariseldon]

I think you may have missed one large area of growth for computing, that of 'virtual reality'. I think this will only improve, such that it will be used in therapies for older people. There will also be problems in security issues and in political control of our data. Thank you for your work and I wish you all the best for 2020.

[ukar]

“You Mind”? I do actually!

The development of smart phones does seem to be declining. There’s less reasons to upgrade to the latest model when the improvements are largely just the processor and camera. I certainly have no intention of upgrading for some time.

[martinda]

When I was a kid I bought a Science of Cambridge MK14, and we still had seasons - I ordered it in the winter and got it in the summer. Thanks Clive. The seasons are not so clearly defined now..I would suggest we sort that out or all our clever tinkering will be for nothing.
Even with my scaremongering, your channel is wonderful.

[niceguybytheway]

Im really glad you talk about social medias. As a teachers student I see the challenges of sosial media and its role in the future. I am writing a study on how to interact with other people online, and how to respect other people in social medias such as Facebook, Instagram etc. From my point of view, this will become an increasing challenge in the future of computing.

[edwardharding]

Watching this in very early 2024 and your predictions on AI are very good. AI is now being highly integrated into a lot of things that we do now and it will be interesting to see what happens in the 2030s and beyond.

[An.Individual]

Lets hope Chris is right and open source does get more popular.
Though I don't see how it can be funded?

[AndrewAHayes]

I got sick of my smartphones, the neverending release of the next best thing, the emails from my provider informing me I could upgrade my device, the constant re-charging, so I decided to ditch my smartphones, in fact, I sold them and used the money to upgrade my 3d printer's board and drivers and treated myself to some fancy filaments.
For my phone choice, I bought one of the Nokia reissue phones, just a bog-standard phone nothing more nothing less and 3 days of battery power(luxury).
And then came Christmas and what did I get? the latest Samsung Smartphone, luckily it had just been purchased before Christmas so I was able to return it unopened for a refund.

[Roberto-ddte]

Neurons up if you're telepathically watching this on the 2050s

[Solar_and_Security]

First congratulations Chris on your 554k Subs, that's impressive, and you're headed to that 1 million mark ever faster! When I found your channel, I think you had just hit 50K number, so congratulations, always great to see when people do well!


To give you my input about smart phones, I think you missed the mark on that, with the ever increasing addiction to social media, the instant gratification, and availability of information at the touch of a finger, this will only increase. If not a "phone, " a personal computing device with a interactive display, that has connectivity would be the only technology that would displace this.


All the best Chris, and look forward to more videos and your continued success, cheers!

[jm]

Well done. I think you are "spot on". You are also the first person I've heard address the health aspects. Maybe you could expand on that?

[ralphups]

Explaining computers,
I am glad you come back through time.
At lest once a week, to keep us informed. 🔬

[frigbychilwether]

Hi, interesting thoughts. I think on the subject of peak smartphone, the rise in wearable technologies, be it watches, AR glasses etc will be a driver to the decline of the smartphone and thus start of cyborg fusion as people get used to interacting with computing "in their own head" as it were - ie without being seen to use technology. As someone(I can't remember who) said, their ideal would be a device that at a party whispers into their ear the name of the person they are talking to. Of course this will add to the health/mental wellbeing issues you described. This kind of technology could also be used to help monitor health, as some devices already do.

[Exploited]

Happy new year! Love your channel... you’re really great at making complex subject “accessible” enough without oversimplifying it 👍👍

[RebornGalaxy]

2020 sounds so distance in the future....then I realize we are there..