Ukraine War and its Global Impact

In this we look at the global impact of the Ukraine War, this covers a lot of ground: international relations, changes in trade routes, sanctions, support for Ukraine and other topics. Additionally, we also look at the Russian perception of the war based on a booklet for Russian soldiers and Putin's speech in February 2023.

Cover: Microsoft Corporation 2020, Earthstar Geographics SIO, Map Tiler, OpenStreetMap contributors, modified by MHV.

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David, Andrew; Stewart, Sarah; Reid, Meagan; Alperovitch, Dmitri: Russia Shifting Import Sources Amid U.S. And Allied Export Restrictions. China Feeding Russia's Technology Demands. January 2023.

Christoph Trebesch, Arianna Antezza, Katelyn Bushnell, Andre Frank, Pascal Frank, Lukas Franz, Ivan Kharitonov, Bharath Kumar, Ekaterina Rebinskaya & Stefan Schramm (2023). "The Ukraine Support Tracker: Which countries help Ukraine and how?" Kiel Working Paper, No. 2218, 1-65.

Winter, Jay M.: The Cambridge History of the First World War. Volume II: The State. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, 2016.

NATO's response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine

Presidential Address to Federal Assembly February 21, 2023 at Gostiny Dvor, Moscow.

Emily Ferris: Russia and Putin’s Latest Speech: A Series of Unfortunate Events. RUSI, 2023.

Defense Intelligence Agency: Russia Military Power – Building a Military to Support Great Power Aspirations – 2017.

Russia Sanctions Update: CIS-picious Trading Patterns

Zsolt Darvas; Catarina Martins: The Impact Of The Ukraine Crisis On International Trade.

00:00 Intro
00:18 Russia’s Perception
07:20 Global Sanctions & Russian Counter Measures
11:07 Support for Ukraine
17:02 The Forgotten One: India
18:25 Africa
20:45 Iran
22:07 China
24:06 Summary

#UkraineWar #global #russia

[TheArchaos]

It is not possible to "de-escalate" a non-nuclear conflict by responding with a nuclear attack, regardless if its strategic or tactical. It is de-facto a further escalation which can and will increase the chances of a nuclear conflict.

[maciejniedzielski]

@MHV very interesting video, résumé of facts backed with sources

[LeCharles]

So, you know what the Ukraine war doesn't have in common with the Great Patriotic War and the Patriotic War? No foreign troops standing on the outskirts of Moscow. We could do Putin a favor...

[boyraceruk]

How exactly does one use nuclear arms to de-escalate? I would love to speak to the person who came up with that idea.

[randomdude]

The GDP of China was only $18.321 trillion in 2022, not the $34 trillion stated in the video. India's $3.3 trillion, but its purchasing power parity was approximately $11 trillion. Well I don't know for sure I'm assuming China's GDP was also based on purchasing power parity. The problem with using that number is it is not equivalent. You can't buy microchips or oil or iron ore using PPP.

[Lykyk]

It's probably worth mentioning that the latest Kiel statistics ended before the massive recent AFV and tank announcements by a lot of countries were made.
Gonna have to wait for the next update for them to be included, which is kinda dumb because it feels a bit like cutting off right before the finale.

[goetzliedtke]

At one point, I discovered from OSINT that Russia provided frequency support and synchronization to Iranian electric infrastructure. At that time, the FSU states still all had one huge electric frequency and reliability structure. Thus, when one of Iran's 1970s era Combined Cycle Natural Gas power plants failed, the effects were felt from St. Petersburg to Vladivostock.

[nickstone]

Recommend Perun, recurring on Sundays content at macro level analysis of the military components and other interests.

[jan]

One thing you missed when presenting which countries support Ukraine in what capacity, it's important to note the different policies of countries when it comes to announcing aid, especially military kind. This means that you might be underestimating aid coming to Ukraine, particularly from countries to the east, which don't announce everything publicly. Especially if you are basing these from osint sources, idk since no source.

[Potatotenkopf]

Bruh the post soviet states all being the top donators in terms of percentage of gdp is some real ass karma shit.

[looinrims]

I wanna know about the threat to Moldova frankly…especially considering that map Lukashenko showed off where an arrow went into transistria…

[milgeschichte]

For "few things I dislike more than bureaucrats" you should get a second thumbs up. :D

[danos]

An interesting post as usual (thanks). A few question/comments. 1) At 2:45 you mention "Anti-Semitic" nature of Russian response, but the statement used to support this claim does not contain any Anti-Semitic content as far as I can tell (correct me if I am mistaken). 2) The analysis of funding by month in 2022 is unconvincing and is only superficially tied to event on the ground in Ukraine. Much more likely are a host of domestic and international factors within/among the donor countries.

In my humble opinion, the biggest criticism of this video is that it ignores (or leaves a small mention at the end) the vast effects on the international trading system. Namely, the strategic growth of BRICS alliance to counter the western weaponization of trade starting with SWIFT banking system. This has implication also for overseeing effectiveness of sanctions themselves as the SWIFT system allows Western states to monitor international trading transactions. Additionally, a growing movement to de-dollarize international trade has been pushed forward which will impact on the dollars value, and hurt the Western economies further if a strong recession evolves. Related effect of the sanctions regime is the severe harm done to the international legal system of multilateral trade. To wit, international commerce law has lost much of its legitimacy and trust, given that property and monetary holding seizures by the West on both the Russian state and individual Russians have been undertaken without a declaration of war against Russia or without sufficient legal basis (laws passed by parliaments) but instead by fiat. In conclusion, the video ignores these economic effects of the Western reaction to the war (regardless of it future outcome) that are likely to be felt for decades into future, mostly likely to the detriment of the West.

[wisemankugelmemicus]

this isnt the great patriotic war 2.0 this is the winter war 2.0 or russo-japanese war 3.0

[FortuneZer]

15:00 Im going to be cynical here about these dastardly bureaucrats. They had to get rid of old stuff to improve their budgets massively. Out with the old, order new and get a pat on the back what a great job hes doing having done so much with the same budget landing exactly on a black zero.

[fluffybunny]

What exactly is the map at 07:40 showing?

As far I’m aware Norway, Sweden and Switzerland have imposed sanctions too? Zooming out further would include Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan too, right? On the other hand I wasn’t able to find exactly what kind of sanctions against Russia were imposed by Cuba and Argentina? Anyone here who has better insight in this?

[freetolook]

@14:51 "But I am likely biased since there are a few things I dislike more than bureaucracts."
How about car salesmen, bankers and lawyers???
😂😂😂

[thelakeman]

GDP (PPP) numbers are not really reliable figures for a country's economic size, should've used nominal GDP instead. Even political leaders within India only speak in nominal GDP terms (so stuff like Modi promising to expand the GDP to 5 trillion usd in his second term in the 2019 elections), cause that is more representative of the actual size of a country's economy with respect to other countries to the extent that GDP itself is a reliable method of doing so.

[edward]

The russian soldier cries out in pain as he invades yet another country. "YOU MADE ME DO THIS" he says.

[recoil]

The US involvment in Ukraine may decrease their total ability to intervene in Taiwan, however:
Ukraine has woken the US and NATO from their complacency
It has shown that artillery is still important, Western stocks are too low, and procurement is too slow. That is all being fixed.
Military ties between the US, NATO, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and Australia have been strengthened.

So the "Special Military Action" in Ukraine has actually primed the Western Allies to react more strongly if China invades Taiwan than they would have before. Previously they had dismissed warnings from Ukraine, Poland, and the Baltic states. That won't happen now in Taiwan.
Time isn't on China's side, unless you are talking about more than a decade from now.