Is climate change to blame?

After an extreme weather event, people often ask: is climate change to blame? On June 12, 2024, the Yale Center for Environmental Communication hosted an insightful discussion on attribution science — a field focused on determining the influence of human-induced climate change on extreme weather events.

This discussion was moderated by Dr. Jennifer Marlon, Senior Research Scientist at the Yale School of the Environment. It featured a panel of expert climate scientists and communicators including Dr. Friederike Otto, Dr. Andrew Pershing, and Dr. Laura Thomas-Walters. They covered how scientists establish these connections and effective ways to communicate the impact of human-caused climate change on extreme weather events, drawing on message testing research from the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication.

[liberty-matrix]

"A lot of this green agenda is being pushed because someone somewhere is making a lot of money from it. Just like in COVID, when of course there was a great redistribution of wealth to the most richest people in the world and the biggest corporations. As well as power being taken away from the likes of you and I." ~Robert Oulds

[voidisyinyangvoidisyinyang]

we don't have an economy if we can't grow food. There's a lot more issues that get ignored - the 1200 gigatons of pressurized methane in the world's largest ocean shelf is one. The 500 zettajoules of extra heat in the oceans is another one. even the doomosphere is missing some big issues - like the 30 million people starving right now around Sudan and 310 million people needing food assistance this year. WION, as Sandy says, is a good source - they have a "Climate Tracker" playlist - out of India. So they don't have a U.S. bias or eurocentric bias. I check up on Nature Bats Last - Guy McPherson - and arctic-news blogspot - also Counterpunch publishes a great journalist - let's see if he has a new one. July 26, 2024, China’s Lightning-Fast Renewable Triumphs, by Robert Hunziker. Yeah I actually was just thinking about that article yesterday.
The Aerosol Masking Effect is twice as bad as previously though - so a 40% reduction of burning coal with sulfur pollution actually heats up Earth another 1 degree C. oops.

[OldScientist]

The UN's IPCC AR6 report, chapter 11 'Weather and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate' summarises the fact that severe weather events cannot be detected as increasing, nor attributed to human caused climate change:
Increased Flooding: not detected, no attribution.
Increased Meteorological Drought: not detected, no attribution.
Increased Hydrological Drought: not detected, no attribution.
Increased Tropical Cyclones: not detected, no attribution.
Increased Winter Storms: not detected, no attribution.
Increased Thunderstorms: not detected, no attribution.
Increased Hail: not detected, no attribution.
increased lightning: not detected, no attribution.
Increased Extreme Winds: not detected, no attribution.
There is no climate crisis.
The UN's IPCC AR6 report, chapter 11 'Weather and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate' summarises the fact that certain severe weather events cannot be detected as increasing, nor attributed to human caused climate change:
Pages 1761 - 1765, Table 11.A.2 Synthesis table summarising assessments
Heavy Precipitation: 24 out of 45 global regions low confidence in observed trend (12 medium confidence), 43 out of 45 low confidence in human attribution.
Agricultural Drought: 31 out of 45 global regions low confidence in observed trend
(14 medium confidence. No high confidence assessment). 42 out 45 low confidence in human attribution (3 medium, no high confidence).
Ecological Drought as above.
Hydrological Drought: 38 out of 45 global regions low confidence in observed trend.
43 out 45 low confidence in human attribution (2 medium confidence, no high confidence).
So the IPCC are saying we didn't cause droughts and we didn't make it rain. How surprising!
There is no objective observational evidence that we are living in a global climate crisis.
The UN's IPCC AR6, chapter 12 "Climate Change Information for Regional Impact and for Risk Assessment", section 12.5.2, table 12.12 confirms there is a lack of evidence or no signal that the following have changed:
Air Pollution Weather (temperature inversions),
Aridity,
Avalanche (snow),
Average precipitation,
Average Wind Speed,
Coastal Flood,
Agricultural drought,
Hydrological drought,
Erosion of Coastlines,
Fire Weather (hot and windy),
Flooding From Heavy Rain (pluvial floods),
Frost,
Hail,
Heavy Rain,
Heavy Snowfall and Ice Storms,
Landslides,
Marine Heatwaves,
Ocean Acidity,
Radiation at the Earth’s Surface,
River/Lake Floods,
Sand and Dust Storms,
Sea Level,
Severe Wind Storms,
Snow, Glacier, and Ice Sheets,
Tropical Cyclones.
How about some quotes from the UN's IPCC AR6?
"There is low confidence in the emergence of heavy precipitation and pluvial and river flood frequency in observations, despite trends that have been found in a few regions."
"There is low confidence in the emergence of drought frequency in observations, for any type of drought, in all regions."
"Observed mean surface wind speed trends are present in many areas, but the emergence of these trends from the interannual natural variability and their attribution to human-induced climate change remains of low confidence due to various factors such as changes in the type and exposure of recording instruments, and their relation to climate change is not established. . . The same limitation also holds for wind extremes (severe storms, tropical cyclones, sand and dust storms)."
There is no objective observational evidence that we are living through a global climate crisis. None.

[gene]

Climate change impact can be seen by the melting of ice sheets at Earth’s poles.

[OldScientist]

"As regards disease, the Lancet's Countdown on Health and Climate Change (2019) shows Climate-related deaths are a small proportion of all-cause fatalities (1990–2017). That is based on data per IHME (2019), and between 1990 and 2017, the cumulative age-standardized death rate (ASDRs) from climate-sensitive diseases and events (CSDEs) dropped from 8.1% of the all-cause ASDR to 5.5%, while the age-standardized burden of disease, measured by disability-adjusted life years lost (DALYs) declined from 12.0% to 8.0% of all-cause age-standardized DALYs. Thus, the burdens of death and disease from CSDEs are small, and getting smaller.
However, the declines in death and disease rates from CSDEs since 1990 are only a small proportion of longer-term declines across the globe. In the USA, one of the few places with good long-term data, death rates from dysentery, typhoid, paratyphoid, other gastrointestinal diseases, and malaria – all water-related diseases and therefore, almost by definition, climate-sensitive declined 99–100% between 1900 and 1970.
We are solving our problems with CSDEs faster than we are solving our other health problems."
Indur M. Goklany

[OldScientist]

"Heat-attributable mortality fractions have declined over time in most countries owing to general improvements in health care systems, increasing prevalence of residential air conditioning, and behavioural changes. These factors, which determine the susceptibility of the population to heat, have predominated over the influence of temperature change." IPCC

[OldScientist]

Since 1900 the global temperature has increased by 1.3°C. Despite that humanity has flourished. Life expectancy has more than doubled from 32 to 73 years. Literacy has quadrupled from 21% to 86%. Humans are seven times more productive ($2, 241 to $15, 212 GDP per capita, per annum). People are better fed, having ⅓ more calories every day (2, 192kcal to 2, 928kcal). Global extreme poverty rates have tumbled from 70% to less than 10% (<$1 a day). And death from weather events have collapsed by a factor 50 from 241 million down to 5 million even while the global population has increased by a factor of 5.
There is no climate crisis. There is no evidence of a climate crisis.
Even if there is radical climate change (and that is a very, very big 'if') with the manifestation of numerous tipping points (including permafrost thaw, ocean hydrates dissociation, Arctic sea ice loss, rainforest dieback, polar ice sheet loss, AMOC slowdown, and Indian monsoon variability) the disruption to economic growth and well-being will be minimal. The world's economy will continue to grow making everyone much richer. By 2050 world mean consumption per capita should be $29, 100 with tipping points or $29, 300 without tipping points. Barely noticeable. Apart from it being approximately double what it is now. By 2100 world mean consumption per capita should be $71, 000 with or without tipping points (Dietz et al, 2021).
This is the most fortunate time to be alive in the whole of history.

[OldScientist]

The number and length of heatwaves has increased globally (1951-2017) as you would expect in a slowly warming world, but there is no trend for average intensity (Perkins-Kirkpatrick and Lewis, 2020, also ref. by IPCC).
Heat waves have not been increasing in intensity or frequency in the United States, which has by far the best meteorological data both spatially and temporally. Data from NOAA's Climate Reference Network shows no sustained increase in daily high temperatures in the United States since 2005 when that network began. In recent decades in the United States, heat waves have been far less severe than they were in the 1930s. At that time Heatwaves were more than 6 times worse with greater frequency and covering a larger area than the last decade (EPA). The most severe heatwave year was 1936, and was about 13 times worse than current. In 2023 only 4 US states have achieved higher temperatures than 1936. Many states in 1936 achieved temperatures 15° hotter than the present. The all-time high temperature records set in most states occurred in the first half of the twentieth century. The percentage of US Historical Climatology Network Stations reaching or exceeding 95°F (35°C) was at a record low (1895-2023) of 51% in 2023. The record high was 1931 at 93%. The trend has been consistently downwards since the thirties. The climate crisis was 90 years ago. You missed it.