This Bizarre Texas Town Is Where the Crash Starts

The 2025 housing crash may already be underway—and it’s starting in Texas. While the national media stays silent, cities like Austin, Dallas, San Antonio, and Houston are seeing price drops, surging inventory, and collapsing demand. Austin alone is down 21% from its 2022 peak—nearing 2008 crash levels.

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[TinaJames]

housing Prices are too high. With rates not subsidised in ’25 and mortgage still high, currently seeking alternatives to maximise savings without an RV move or taking a loan. I’m seriously contemplating the latter.

[naujelbr]

Regardless of what’s happening, Dallio, and other hedge fund celebs are never to be trusted. Ever. Like ever. These people are not your friend.

[nixielee]

Things are just getting back to normal. That's really not a crash.

[SABarker]

I support this message. Every person waiting to move (and has the time to wait) supports a collapse in inventory prices. As you said, the “cartoonish” explosion in prices over 2021-2023 can not be accepted, These damn flippers and investors must be made to pay the price for treating housing like the stock market or a Vegas roulette table…. Let prices collapse and reset…

[c-r]

Crashing market is bad for realtors but for people who wants a place to live is great. Affordable housing is very important. Texas should not be expensive housing like California, NY. Texas should be affordable. What is important is the stability and growth of jobs in Texas.

[DerraKormino]

fear a housing crash due to people buying homes above asking prices with little equity. If prices drop, affordability and potential foreclosures may arise, worsened by future layoffs and rising living costs. I want to invest more than $300k, but I'm not sure on how to mitigate risk.

[IndependentManInTheHills]

I live in the Texas Hill Country in an exclusive bedroom community on the Lake, outside of Austin. Nothing is selling. Stupid fools think they can sell their homes at 2022 prices. Let ‘em rot.

[crazybch]

I live in the greater Austin area. Housing construction here has been non-stop the past few years. No matter where you go, there's apartments or subdivisions being build. The complex I'm about to move into was built only 2 years ago.

[fortstocktonjeffBarber]

Thanks for an excellent podcast. I sold my home in El Paso and am now renting in Midland. I am on the sidelines waiting for the real estate market to drop further, . I found a nice 2000 square foot home in West Texas which recently sold (by the bank) for 51% of the value assessed by the local central appraisal district. The downturn is spreading west of the Interstate 35 corridor

[keithjansen]

All around the country I see large (3000 sq ft) houses while families get smaller due to inflation. When I was younger families bought houses that were 2000 sq ft or less and managed to raise larger families. If they keep bldg large house but can't sell them it is bad for the economy.

[jonathantaylor]

This will be nationwide sooner or later. A house simply is not worth the same when mortgage rates are 7% vs 2.65%. The majority of homes are still bought with debt (even many "cash sales" from investors) and these people are buying a payment. If 100 people can afford your 500K house at 2.65% likely only 10 or 20 of them can afford to buy (qualify) that home at 7% at the same 500K price point.

[dvineyard]

I see this as less of a crash and more of a slight return to notmal. It actually needs to drop another 40%+.

[macwil]

I live south of Houston, my subdivision has all time new housing construction taking place.

[MostlyPeacefulRiots]

Austin resident! I have watched home prices in my neighborhood drop 24.6% in the last 18 months ($350, 000-$800, 000), especially in new construction. As the price of homes offsets the 30-year bulk mortgage packages developers buy from lenders, then offer fixed, lower 30-year buy-downs or typical buy-downs, developers lose their edge on resale. Once resale and new construction prices are equal (they are close), inventory will explode further, and prices will drop further. I am waiting for another 12% drop before I buy. I have waited 3.5 years; I am not going to jump the gun. My wife and I are salivating, though. We are in a prime position, with no debt, exempt from property tax and PMI, and have saved enough over the last 3 years during the AI bubble to have a nice down payment.

[signkutter]

Youngsters cant afford new cars...how are they going to support a housing market

[SonjaShindler]

Illegal Property Taxes! Illegal increases in evaluations!

[glasslinger]

Houston here. No signs of decline at all. New construction EVERYWHERE in the city! Tax rates going up the normal 10% a year.

[mattmurphy]

If you bought a house in Orlando for $200, 000 in 2013... It is worth over double that now.... The market can CRASH.... 50% and you are still whole... think and don't panic....

[Raazorred]

Oh no! Austin is only up 25% over 5 years instead of 42%! 😮 😂😅😂😂

[mollydtt]

I live in north central Austin. Prices are high. Maybe just not as high as 2022. As soon as a one story house from the 1950’s hits the market, it is sold immediately, torn down, and a 2 or 3 story McMansion built or 2 story duplex condo built. The peak, so far, was 2022, but demand is still there.
2022 was insane.