The Pac-12's Emergency Expansion Plan (RE-UPLOAD)

(November 13, 2024) - Reuploaded due to some copyright issues with the first chunk of the video and a Star Wars meme that didn't work out. Don't mess with Disney, I guess.
 
A while ago, I made a video predicting what the Conference USA could do to expand. While I hit on two of my predictions there, I missed on a later video about Pac-12 expansion. Now the Pac 12 is in a desperation pitch to add a fifth football member before the end of 2024 in order to still be considered a valid FBS conference per NCAA rules, and after being locked out of the Mountain West and American for the foreseeable future, they might already be at defcon-1. Teams like Memphis, UTSA, and Tulane are out of the running, at least for now, and Sacramento State's widely publicized Sac12Pac12 initiative can't buy them past the NCAA's transition rules.

That leaves them with 4 desperate candidates, in my opinion: Texas State of the Sun Belt, UTEP, who just announced a move to the Mountain West from Conference USA but is by no means bound to it, New Mexico State, and Sam Houston State. All four of these southwestern schools would stretch the conference more to the east and further away from the Pacific, which could potentially hurt the travel wallets of the now much smaller conference.

In this video, I rank those four desperation candidates and try to figure out which direction the Pac 12 should go, if they're desperate enough to want to make that decision right now.

[gavinbryant]

Chaos option: Gonzaga brings back football

[einherjar]

I'm a foreigner that lived in El Paso for a while, and I am not at all surprised to see how much money UTEP rakes in. El Paso is actually a pretty big city (though very spread out) and they genuinely ride for the Miners. People have flags and merch everywhere. It's discussed on the radio every morning and on local news every night. Personally think Texas State would be a better fit for the PAC12, but yeah UTEP could genuinely do great things if the stars ever align for them. And the Sun Bowl is beautiful.

[Benjamin-lqsf]

Saying that the NMSU basketball player killed an opposing fan is a huge oversimplification. A bunch of people in ABQ lured Mike Peake (the guy who killed the person) to a dorm where they were gonna straight up assassinate him as revenge for a fight they got in a month earlier. They shot him once in the leg before Peake fired back and killed the guy who tried to murder him. It wasn’t a player just killing people willy nilly, he was about to be murdered. It was self defense, saying that “he just killed an opposing teams fan” plants the wrong idea of what happened. The “opposing teams fan” tried to assassinate him. It doesn’t justify that players are so easily able to sneak out and bring guns with them. There are still are an immense amount of negatives in NMSU as an addition.

[bargainbuilds]

I've been really hoping we end up with Texas State. I think if the PAC wants long term success, Texas State is the school to add. Plus, they've got a cool logo and their colors are great. If not, I'd be happy with UTEP.

[CharlesFosterMalloy]

San Marcos, TX, where Texas State is located, is between Austin and San Antonio, closer to Austin than SA.

[abakella]

The thing about this whole situation is that it has started a butterfly effect down to the FCS level. The Pac-12 has to expand by taking schools from the Mountain West, which now has to take schools from FCS conferences like the Big West/Big Sky/Western Athletic Conference

And that’s good for their programs, because it allows them to move up to the next level and make more money in conference payouts

[rangersking]

Also..saying Texas state is really Southwest Texas state is like saying other state schools that used to be just normal college can’t use state. I don’t get the issue with that. They’re also clearly and overwhelmingly the biggest school by enrollment and endowment in the Texas state system despite them not being a flagship by law.

[RobSchneiderman]

The PAC-12 needs the Los Angeles Metro Media Market.
They should have both Cal State Long Beach and UC Irvine join. Then they will need to develop football programs.
This provides HUGE revenue opportunities if the PAC-12 leaders can think beyond this year

[DocSkirv]

Desperately? Ludicrous. There are no roads closed. The mountain west school signed a memorandum of understanding. That is not illegally binding contract. Memphis, Tulane, and University of Texas San Antonio are still targets as well.

[igrowdragonfruits]

I’m gonna mention teams some hasn’t mentioned and the PAC should consider.
-TX ST.
-Louisiana
-Louisiana Tech
-Arkansas St.
- New Mexico St.
- UTEP (Backup team in case)
- UL Monroe (Backup)

This will put the PAC at 12 & these teams have really cheap exit fees. You save money on exit fees and puts you at 12 so you can truly be the PAC12.

[atgdcommish]

Memphis and Tulane is Plan A. Texas State could be an addition to that, or the backup plan (the Pac only needs 1 more team for now). If there isn't enough cash to get Memphis and Tulane, I'd like to see Texas State and Louisiana (currently 8-1 and just outside the Top 25).

UTEP already joined the Mountain West.

[JamesMeyer]

I actually thought that Washington State and Oregon State were going to merge with the Mountain West and take the Pac-12 (or whatever number) name, but the Mountain West doesn't seem to like that idea.

[scottyking]

Most Memphis fans are done with the AAC. We hate it. Nobody cares to go since X12 and ACC took our rivals. We've been left for dead and if Memphis stays in the AAC it'll bleed out financially. Our fans don't care about this league. The interest has declined 60% the last 4 years. Change is desperately needed!

[SoCalPorcupine]

AAC members are not off the table. A "statement" is not legally binding.

[TheWildCur]

The shade at Fresno state is odd. Historically, they’re the Most successful program out of all of them. Recently clearly it’s Boise (since 2000) but Boise barely existed before 2002.

And Fresno has a large stadium and a loyal fanbase.

Not to mention Fresno has had a successful Basketball program in the past and is a great Baseball program. Even winning a National Title in this millenium

The Fresno/Madera/Visalia Metro is also over 2 Million (I believe) now. And they pull support from Bakersfield to the South (a city of over 300, 000 and a metro over 1, 000, 000) and Stockton/Modesto/Merced to the North.

[BobKubby]

I believe Texas State and UTEP make the most sense and adding them might entice a UTSA or a Memphis to come with them. I like your ideas👍... we just have to see if the Pac 12 feels the same way.

[joshgrothues]

UTEP over Texas state?! NO WAY… good video though

[Nathan_Lara]

The pac made the right choice with these four schools. There's more number like market and attendance that support teams like Fresno and Boise over Memphis and Tulane but even on the field results skew towards them. The only other g5 that stacks up to Boise and Fresno is Air Force with a decent media market too. UNLV and UTSA are both programs on the rise with huge media markets and recuiting pools too. In a what have you done for me lately type of way Tulane and Memphis should definitely be tha pac 12s top priotities along with UNLV, UTSA, and Air Force.

Conference titles since 2000:
Boise: 13
Fresno:4
San Diego: 3
Colorado St: 2
Memphis: 2
Tulane: 1
Utah St: 1

Winning seasons since 2000:
Boise: 24
Fresno: 17
San Diego: 12
Memphis: 11
Colorado St: 10
Utah St: 7
Tulane: 6

10+ Seasons since 2000:
Boise: 17
Fresno: 6
San Diego: 5
Memphis: 4
Utah St: 4
Colorado St: 3
Tulane: 2

Bowl wins since 2000:
Boise: 12
Fresno: 9
San Diego: 6
Memphis: 6
Utah St: 5
Colorado St: 4
Tulane: 4

# of times made the top 25 since 2000:
Boise: 19
Fresno: 10
Memphis: 6
San Diego: 4
Colorado St: 4
Utah St: 3
Tulane: 2

All time conf. Championships:
Fresno: 29
Boise: 21
San Diego: 21
Colorado St: 15
Utah St: 13
Tulane: 10
Memphis: 8

2020's record so far:

Memphis: (40-20)(.667)(3-0 post szn)
Fresno State: (38-19)(.667)(4-0 post szn)
Tulane: (40-23)(.634)(2-2 post szn)
Boise State: (40-24)(.625)(2-3 post szn)
San Diego St: (30-28)(.517)(1-2 post szn)
Utah St: (28-29)(.491)(2-2 post szn)
Colorado St: (19-32)(.372)(0-0 post szn)

2023 average attendance:
Fresno: 39, 969
Boise: 35, 867
Memphis: 29, 782
Colorado St: 26, 509
Tulane: 25, 021
San Diego: 24, 832
Utah St: 19, 282

[jos]

What’s the word on Rice? AAU membership, Houston? As a Boise State fan i wish we kinda just stayed in the MWC

[Noreo]

I didn’t know NMSU had so much drama going on over there 😅