My 2022 Star Citizen Predictions Were Terrible!

I thought it would be interesting to look back at my Star Citizen 2022 predictions to see how accurate I was! It's safe to say they they were not great predictions!

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#StarCitizen​​ #SpaceSim​​ #PCGaming​ #Squadron42​ #S42

[RecklessFables]

Bored Gamer should do this, he's overly optimistic about what will be released next week ...like every week, multiple times per week.

[Pappy_]

I don't know, we had 3.17, 3.17.1, 3.17.2, and 3.17.3. Even though we didn't have a "number" change, we did have four patches with each of those patches having bigger changes than anything previously. Many new ships, many new missions, and a lot of added tech. Like buying and selling items, a new inventory system, loot boxes, higher server caps, higher fps rates, etc, etc.

[PatEagle]

2022 was a slow year development wise. The only memorable event to me this year was the doubling of the player cap per server. My expectation for 2023 is pretty low. I don't see us getting the full implementation of Server Meshing (1000+ players per instance is still a long way off) and a lot of ships like the Polaris will still be sitting in the backlog well beyond 2023. CIG already confirmed that Vulkan will only be useful for people who were CPU limited. For people who were already GPU limited it won't make much of a difference. Beyond Pyro and Nyx I don't see another star system being introduced into the game in 2023. But on the positive side I expect major gameplay loops such as bounty hunting, combat, trading, refueling, racing, medic, mining and salvaging to be more fleshed out and better refined as the game now has a ship for almost all existing profession (with the addition of the Anvil C8R and Drake Vulture). Ship repair and ship hacking gameplays will still be waiting for the Anvil Crucible and Anvil Legionnaire respectively and those ones won't make it to 2023.

[tomfoolery]

I agree with you. I don't think many people, or just the average SC goer really appreciates what PES is and what it opens up. It's in 3.18 and it is working. It broke some older code they are now re-writing like bed logout but it's in and it works. Not only that but I've seen AI actually do what it should do in many cases, NPCs were walking around and taking up positions at places instead of standing on chairs. Many of the SC meme things are now going away in game and being replaced by the fundamental technical requirements to actually make this thing work. I'm excited and I hope that it opens up the content teams more this next year.

[Luis-lqyk]

Don't worry. Next year will be THE YEAR.

[jimashby]

Well no doubt I was hoping for more stability, just playing. I want SQ 42 and RSI never once led me on to think it was coming anytime soon. Our Hanger's are gone, but we get more time at the spawn port to check our ships. Missions, they have been working on them, but after you do them once or twice, it's just flat out Boring. Arena Commander still while fun, has problem's to. And some of the Quantum travels that take 11 minute's...I don't know if I'm willing to do that often, just to go somewhere that takes another 20 minute's to boringly mine a rock, then spend another 11 minute's to go and swap it or sell it somewhere. I'm just not into all that wasted time.
... ... But when you are PVP with guns and weapons on ground and ships playing, it can be the most exciting game I've ever seen or been part of. $500 in ships since 2016 and a little over for subscriptions to make concierge. I've never wanted a game to succeed so bad.

[Nikalin]

Was hoping for Theaters of War this year, but no such luck :(

[JagHiroshi]

Fair summary - not the best for players but critical work finally done by devs. 3.18 will be fun.

[Tolakram]

I guess my concerns are summed up by simply saying it's really not that difficult to develop a game. They can't seem to work fast enough so are always falling behind the game engine tech. Smaller teams have done more in less time. I understand we, yes me included, want SC to succeed, but I can't shake the fear that their development process is too convoluted to succeed.

[zerowolfgaming]

2023 Prediction: 11 years in production and 500 + million stolen from backers later, we'll still wait on a game that's promising to deliver what other space sims have years ago with 5% of the funding.

[DamonCzanik]

Checking on my comment I said I would go against everyone and predicted you (and about everyone else) would be wrong about salvage and it would actually come in 2022. Now if I can play it (which I can), I consider it in. So I consider that a win (even if others disagree). They could have released it to live but they never should have a major update before their winter break.

I said it all depended on persistence (now known as PES). Which it 100% did. Someone replied, "No it would require server meshing". They were wrong. See those wrecks just needed the backend database that persistence offered. They're not moving around like a player and are essentially fixed and can be easily streamed in/out. I knew PES would be a major thing but I didn't anticipate iCache not working and delaying 3.18 by at least 6 months. I figured Q3/Q4 2022 due to persistence issues.

I believed 4.0 would be at least 6‐9 months after persistence went live. We'll have to see. I think it's going to be more like 3.18.

I also predicted in March they'd make over a hundred million in 2022 which people thought was crazy too. That was right. I said we might even make 130 million. That didn't come true. We were off by 15 million. My prediction was 100% spot on until Q3 2022. That's when funding took a dive due to the long wait for 3.18.

I think 2023's sales all depends on how soon they can get out 4.0. If it takes a long time I think the funding will be closer to 2021 than 2022. If they can pump out 4.0 by Q2 2022, I think it's a new record year. But I don't see that happening at this point. We haven't heard of any successful tests yet.

Overall, I think I did good. But stuff like 100 players per server? I would have bet money that wouldn't happen until server meshing. Same with crafting, soft deaths, racing, etc.

So my predictions for 2023?
* More gameplay and careers. Much of this stuff needed persistence. That's in.
* No SQ42 but we might be feature complete on the gameplay stuff.
* If Pyro comes in 2023, it'll be late in the year. They're going to have a interim patch like 3.17.2.
* No data running until 4.0
* Getting significant progress/additions on multi-crew. Even if it isn't released to live.
* CitizenCon will feature multi-crew gameplay.

[UndeadParrot]

Oh, you're not the only one saying "well done" for CIG's marketing team. Though it might have something to do with the fact that I do marketing as my day job. :D

[RecklessFables]

I can't wait to see video in Q2 '23 where people are discussing how surprising it is we don't have stable PES yet but also the Pyro must be happening in time for IAE '23 because the BMM is almost ready, again.

[SP]

Half right is still right to me for the gen 12 renderer completion 😏

[snozz]

It's kinda crazy the PU is there biggest seller at the moment, & they've got a skeleton crew working on it

[LucidStrike]

Sorry friend, but the 'PES is basically SM' defense is too much of a reach. OCS is a necessary component of SM, first introduced in late 2018. So would you argue THAT was the start of SM? Heh.

[HankBaxter]

Off topic, but I'm really curious about a 5800x3D vs 7700x comparison video. Can't seem to find one for SC yet.

[teokoles]

The waiting in 2022 was worth it. 3.18 is a really nice patch. All bugs in PTU besides, this patch will have us much fun. Now we are seeing, that the project is going forward. And i hope that the further development gets more quicker.

[ianwilson]

I think you are right this year was needed for back end tech and next year is going to be fun to play as 3.18 is a completely new game. 2024 id Sqn42

[JukkaPalme]

PES has nothing to do with server meshing. You can implement a persistence DB in every game without any kind of server meshing. The only thing is that PES is a requirement to make server meshing work in a proper way. And not even that is correct, its more like PES is needed before servermeshing to prevent a server meshing rework after PES is finished. So PES is just a soft requirement for servermeshing.