PROPERTY REVIEW 2020

Are house prices going down or are they going up? In this video, we review the property market in 2020, from commercial to residential and are prices really rising. Are we in a property or housing bubble?

What is really happing with supply and demand.

For those new to the channel, my name is Shane Fleming, I am a chartered property consultant, with nearly 17 years experience now. I use this channel to discuss property-related topics and sometimes what it is like to work in real estate.

2020 has been a very strange year, started with Bush fires in OZ, impeachment trials, covid, lockdowns, US elections, trump losing the plot, Black live matters, Brexit deal and the vaccine. Given all that, there has been some winners and losers in the property market. In this video we review housing, office, retail, industrial and the hotel real estate market.

Chapters
0:00 Intro
0:58 Commercial Property
7:56 Housing Review

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[shaneflemingre]

What are your property predictions for 2021?

[shanethmoore]

17:36 Total mortgage approvals are down by 19%

That's an incredibly impactful figure, where did you get it?

[annmcgowan]

I don't think there is any good value property on the market in Dublin. 2021 I will work on extending current property. I don't think good value property will be available in Dublin until late 2021 or 2022.

[annmcgowan]

I don't think there will be any good value in Dublin before the end of 2021 or 2022.

[toponsky]

Thanks to sharing ur professional opinions.

I agreed the following two points in the video.
First, government PRINT and directly pumps lots of money into economy, which helps people and economy in short term, but this makes inflation unavoidable. I already feel goods are gradually increasing their price, food, cloth, gas and so on. And stock and property are always two major markets to dilute those money. We already saw stock price increased dramatically this year. I believe the property market is same situation. So we saw property price don't fall, but increase.
Second, work from home. Middle and upper middle class are most import people group to buy property, because of WFH, their income doesn't impact too much or not impact at all, plus stay at home, they actually saved more money than another years. I saw a report said the mortgage approval number is 20% lower than last year, but the average approval amount is around 20k higher than last year. That means for me that people who doesn't impact by the COVID-19 has more money than before.


So in my point view is the property price won't fall next year, due to the high demand (because middle or upper class don't impact too much by the COVID-19), low supply and the on the way inflation (maybe huge).

[malicant]

Once WFH runs its course, I could see prices in the cities begin to creep up again. That bungalow in Cavan may have seemed lovely during the summer, but the rural winters may make many rethink the county living. I still remember my first winter in West clare :D

[Marius-uwff]

There is something I would like to disagree in the video, basically on mortgage approvals, that there are less people in the position to buy a house out there currently.
1) It's not really right to compare annual level of approvals, to know what is current active approved demands out there. Someone mortgage approved in January may have already drew down, thus not being on the demand side anymore, where as someone approved in November most likely are in active demand.
You need to add component of Drawdowns. We will end a year probably around -12% in approvals on whole year, and possibly larger fall with around -19% in drawdowns. Thus the number of actual active demands that has mortgage approved, but not drew down yet, is likely highest since 2008.

2) You are using a little out of date data on mortgage approvals, there is November data already, and there are further steep increase in Approvals: "mortgage approvals are down by 15% in volume terms and 9.9% in value terms in the year to date"