When will Arctic Sea-Ice Vanish in the summer? 2023? 2025? 2032? What do you think?? Part 1 of 3

One of the most fundamental questions of abrupt climate system change science asks when the Arctic sea ice will first vanish? It is not a question of “if”. It is a question of “when”? The worst consequences will include greatly accelerated warming of the Arctic and globe, exposure of Greenland to greatly accelerated glacier melt with greatly accelerated sea level rise, and severe slowing and greatly increased waviness of the jet stream, with a shift of the center of rotation 17 degrees latitude south from near the North Pole to the center of Greenland. Weather whiplashing and wilding will skyrocket; how will we grow food??

[PaulHBeckwith]

One of the most fundamental questions of abrupt climate system change science asks when the Arctic sea ice will first vanish? It is not a question of “if”. It is a question of “when”? The worst consequences will include greatly accelerated warming of the Arctic and globe, exposure of Greenland to greatly accelerated glacier melt with greatly accelerated sea level rise, and severe slowing and greatly increased waviness of the jet stream, with a shift of the center of rotation 17 degrees latitude south from near the North Pole to the center of Greenland. Weather whiplashing and wilding will skyrocket; how will we grow food??

[Vegandad]

My money is on 2024. There was still 50 million tons of ice during September last year. But after the way the Chukchi ice was never allowed to form this winter I fear we’re going to see dramatic changes happening faster now.

[codyjones]

This is 2020 we are nearing the big show!

[YouHaveAGoodPoint]

Sally seems more sweet tempered. Shackles seems more playful.

[DSeverXev]

Well if the El Nino is even 10% as strong as the Arctic News predicts (10C increase THIS YEAR) then that 1C increase will surely melt the ice and we are having that Blue Ocean event this year.

[greysilverback]

I would have guessed we would have had a boe by now. I now realize that the Earth is more resilient than I thought. If there is a chance for the future let's not blow it. Down with the corporate elites. Rise up.

[trishkaiser]

Sally is beautiful!!! Definitely more of Sally going forward.

[donready]

About a 1000 years ago, there were 5000 Vikings farming and fishing in Greenland. It got cold and the colonies collapsed. They find graves with tree roots in them but now it is lichen and ice. Ice comes and goes. Chillax people.

[rf-bhfh]

Yes friend, just something to think about. Long ago there was a time when our planet poles had tropical 🌴 environments . However in our planets past there have been many extinction events. Everything from asteroid ☄️ impacts to volcanic eruptions. These events rapidly changed both ocean chemistry and atmospheric gasses. I wonder and fear the impact of our carbon use on the tipping point of ice and water. As well as the PH of fresh water vs salt water. Simple but profound. Thank You so much for your work.

[rnunezc.]

Yesterday I checked null skull jet stream and the southern hemisphere J stream was crossing over north big time by central pacific...we have a weird situation in Ecuador now on rainy season. As I ve been following for years now sea temps departures from normal and now we have a high temp departure with no rain on land which is not correlating or normal...very hot days in coast inland Ecuador .so far with few rain days with a hight temp ocean + 2-3 c from normal. Should be raining almost everyday by now ..but still dry with few showers...pretty abnormal February so far..

[craigkdillon]

Another good video, Paul. People should be reminded that we already have areas of the Arctic Ocean that now are ice free every summer, that used to stay frozen. Namely, the East Siberian Sea, the Kara Sea, and the Leptev Sea.
I believe the Chukchi Sea could also be added to that, but I am not sure if that used to stay iced over.
So, the process is already started. Those seas become ice free and absorb solar energy, increasing their warmth, thus likely expanding the melt in following years.
People need to understand that things are happening NOW. Gloabal warming is having current impact. It is not something just effecting a distant future. It is happening now. And, we need to do something NOW. (fat chance of that, though.)

[victorcouwenbergh]

The MOSAIC expedition has reached the North Pole on the 19th of August and was unable to see any multi-year ice on its way. The ice they saw were mushy, thin ice cubes. The pictures they took are very unsettling as it is clear now the Arctic summer sea ice is collapsing at a much faster rate as anyone predicted. If you see these pictures and look at what the scientists on the icebreaker said, do you adjust your timeline?

[christill]

2022 seems like a good bet. But who knows. I wouldn’t even rule out 2021 with the way things are going.

[MiriamMonroe]

You have more than one cat. I love you so much. The cat I mean God bless you sir, but the cat I mean. Thank you so much for all your work and it is right to ask for donations. There's many of us that have refused to have anything to do with PayPal. So maybe open a patreon account?

[waden]

Paul, 2 questions....

Regarding the methane that is streaming up from the ocean bed - along the massive shore line shelf (only 70' beneath the surface) between the Beaufort Sea & the Eastern Siberian Sea (or, underneath the Chukchi Sea)...
Will it super-inflate heating in the Arctic, or will it simply add to the collective carbon accumulation problem of the planet?
Secondly....
With Russia starting to heavily promote & engage in Arctic cruise ship voyages - the Chinese population already heavily embracing this concept, & rumored to be the next "Caribbean style" tourist vacation spot...
How much of an impact will this ever-increasing cruise ship presence have on ice amounts & carbon emissions in the Arctic?

Considering that heating seems to be 2 - 5 fold that of anywhere else in the world, is it possible to say that what happens in the Arctic stays in the Arctic?
Or, will it cycle through into planetary accumulations?

Thanks.

[dreadhead]

I have faith in your predictions, so I would say 2023 or 2025. Very unlikely 2032.

[normski]

I am going for the span of 1 to 3 years from now.

[russtaylor]

Predicting 'when' seems to be an obsession? The trends are all we really need to know to make an educated guess about the future of ice cover. The heating of water after the ice has gone will be the real eye opener!

[joannecarter]

I would appreciate the link to the next video being put in as part of the description. I'm in Australia so not sure if it's easier in different countries. I often can't find the next part when doing a youtube search and sometimes you change the title so it's not obvious it's part 2 etc. To have the next link would be much appreciated.

[dnimon]

21, 320, 10, 000 years after we emerge from the next ice age