Why The Four Bosses Failed To Predict Michael Corleone’s Rise To Power?

In The Godfather, the four bosses - Brzini, Tattaglia, Stracci, and Cuneo - are all shown to be ineffective in predicting Michael's rise to power. In fact, they all underestimate him massively and end up paying for it. This video explores why this happened and what could have been done differently.

[cthemaverick]

Actually Vito specifically says " I swear on the souls of my grandchildren that I will not be the one to break the peace we've made here today". He knew what Michael would do. He chose his words carefully to disguise that intent.

[phillawrence]

Their fates were sealed when Appolonia was murdered. This affected Michael more than the film portrays I believe.

[danmcn]

Vito Corleone said in the book "The greatest strength is to be underestimated"

[Jesse]

Michael and his father intentionally allowed the rival gangs to start moving in on their territory. Giving the appearance they were weak which caused the rivals to underestimate them. In the novel, they were building a secret army for when they struck.

[fvecc]

I think it wasn’t just Michael’s plan for revenge, it was also the Don’s. The Don knew immediately when Sonny was killed what he needed to do. He knew that the Corleone family didn’t have the strength to fight the other families. That’s why he needed to make peace and try to get Michael home. Once that happens, the Don goes into semi-retirement and begins to groom Michael to be boss, because he knows that no matter what, the other bosses will eventually kill Michael. Michael can never go back to his civilian life. So he prepares Michael to take over the family and together they begin to build up the strength of the Corleone family in total secrecy. They know that if the other families were to learn that they were rebuilding, it would start a war and the Corleones would lose. So they allowed the other families to chip away at small parts of their empire over time, meanwhile they were putting their pieces in place by building back their political connections, strengthening their main financial rackets, and building a secret regime under Rocco Lampone. The Don knows that once the time is right, Michael can give the order and take out the other bosses and the Corleone family will have the strength to move in and take over what’s left. Technically the Don would have kept his word but the result would be the same, the Corleone family would reign supreme. So the bosses of the other families did underestimate Michael, but that wasn’t their fatal flaw. They underestimated the Don and didn’t see he was playing the long game and preparing his revenge for years in advance. Their mistake was being fooled by the Don’s peace offering at the Commission meeting and not realizing that Don Corleone would never accept Sonny’s murder.

[petrov]

Michael slowly turned from the lovely little brother into a ruthless mafia family leader. Firstly the assassination attempt of his father, the murder of his brother and then Appolonia was the turning point. The problem for the other mafia leaders was that they underestimated Michael badly just because he was young. You cannot underestimate a military hero from the war who lost his true love and his brother.

[zaidholliday]

Michael was playing chess while the other bosses were playing checkers.

[mkvqovc]

You forgot the most important part. Michael made it look like he was weak to the other four families. Remember when Clemenza and Tessio came to the Don and said that they were losing territory to Barzini and the other families and Michael told them not to do anything. He wanted them to appear weak and to flesh out the traitor (Tessio). What was not in the movie but in the book was that Michael had Neri and Rocco create two secret capo regimes equal to Clemenza and Tessio’s capo regimes. The family money was going there to recruit men and get ready. That is why you see Neri and Rocco take out Barzini and Tattalia. The other families thought Michael was weak.

[richardlukesh]

During Michael's WW2 military service, he experienced more savage killing than 10 of the most experienced mobsters combined. He went from an enlisted man to an officer, aka a "battlefield commission, " due to the high number of casualties. Stabbing, shooting, or planning a precise multifaceted combat operation would've been something he had a lot of experience in.

[JordanOrlando]

The viewers DON’T see it coming. The movie is so well known at this point that everyone’s familiar with the brutal ending….but in 1972 it was a shock. The movie goes to great lengths to make Michael look weak, and like he’s genuinely trying to turn the family into an appeasing, more modern benign entity (“My father’s way of doing things is over, it’s finished”). Every scene from the meeting to the baptism is skillfully arranged to make it seem like Michael is going to pursue a peaceful compromise, in order to make that montage as surprising and shocking as possible.

[emperorreign]

Every single person underestimated him, with the exception of his father. Vito knew he could do it and do it well, he just didn’t want him to. He was very young and the family was on a downward trajectory for a long time, no one could ever have seen it coming.

[Ocrilat]

I always assumed that the other bosses simply underestimated him. Michael really wasn't one of them, and didn't have the experience or seemed to have the temperament to be that dangerous.

[Hibernicus]

The assassinations of the heads of all four of the other families is an iconic scene, and makes for great drama, but from a strategic standpoint, it really makes no sense -- the other four heads will all have successors, and those successors will probably be just as capable of seeking vengeance for their predecessors as Michael. By killing them all, Michael is declaring war on _all four_ of the other families, and doing so at a time when Tessio's regime is compromised, and possibly untrustworthy.

This is why, in the novel, Michael only had Barzini and Tattaglia killed (along with Moe Greene out there in Vegas). From a story point of view, that makes a whole lot more sense: it leaves the Stracci and Cuneo families neutral, and having no reason to oppose the Corleones. By assassinating their heads, Michael would _force_ them into alliance with the Barzini and Tattaglia families. By leaving them alone, Michael simultaneously gives them no _cassus belli, _ *and* can then point to the fate of Barzini and Tattaglia as a warning *not* to tangle with the Corleone family. This actually makes the Stracci and Cuneo families more likely to put pressure on Barzini's and Tattaglia's successors to end the war -- both sides have taken losses, Michael had legitimate grievances after the attempt on his father's and his lives, and the murder of Sonny. Time to end the fighting so they can all get back to doing business. None of that works if Michael goes after _everybody._

[rwlewko]

Obviously Barzini was setting up the meeting with Tessio where Michael would be assassinated. As you said, it was probably only Barzini that anticipated Michael would take revenge.

However, one thing you left out is that Michael had his own reasons to take out Barzini. His own personal loss of his wife is reason enough for Michael to seek vengeance on Barzini.

The Corleone family had been making a tactical retreat for a substantial length of time leading the other families into believing the Corleone family was too weak to be of consequence. Further, Barzini was probably the only one who knew that Micheal was being groomed by his father to take the role as Godfather. Finally, the action of removing the heads of all five families and the other enemies was probably seen as so audacious that that move was probably unanticipated by the other families.

[johnkochen]

Think about it. Michael had served in the military in wartime as a field officer. He understood leadership and tactics. He had most likely killed combatants from the other side. You can say he knew how to plan an ambush, protect his soldiers, kill enemies and be coolheaded while he did it. He was perfect to take over as mob boss.

[khalilfuller]

The dons thought a guy who literally went to war was powerless 🤣

[gerrywhite]

Barzini did anticipate Michael’s reaction, and was actively moving to remove the threat. Using Tesio, he attempted to set up a meeting at which Michael would have been killed. This meeting is what set the timeline for Michael’s move.

[Kombatkegz]

Mfs forget that the marine corps teaches you to see ahead, anticipate, improvise adapt and overcome adversity. As well as plan missions and execute with contingency and violence of action. They underestimated his skill and cunning and the fact he had killed enough to be over the hill on the sentimentality of it.

[schizoidboy]

Something to keep in mind regarding Michael's military service. In the Marines he was a commissioned officer, a captain to be more precise. As a captain he would have had a command of a company which is about a hundred or so troops. This is not a small thing, especially if you happen to be a battlefield officer commanding troops in the field. Who knows, if Michael didn't get wounded or decided to stay on in the service he might have gone up in the ranks.

[donaldschmidt]

Michael Corleone would have been the greatest poker player since the inception of playing cards! He was a paradox to be the ruler of the Corleones. The least likely and most likely at the same time. As a War Hero, he was the All American Italian boy. Serving his country, while deserting his family, in America's darkest hour. On the other hand, shouldn't this have alerted such intelligent and dangerous men to his obvious abilities? Clearly, he was a brave and daring individualist that wouldn't be cowed by anybody. Not even his father. The great Don Vito Corleone. What is as clear as Crystal China is that Michael Corleone is smarter than everyone else he went up against. He made them underrate him as a punk kid and mediocre successor. Only put in charge out of grasping desperation. Guessing Michael's intentions was like an Easter Egg Hunt in a cornfield. He gave nothing away. What he was really thinking remained a 50 chapter mystery novel. Much to the dismay and demise of the other hapless Mafia rulers.