Will the Commonwealth Collapse... Without the Queen

With the Queen no longer in the equation, people are already discussing the future of the commonwealth. In this video we breakdown what the commonwealth is and if we can expect to see more countries ditching the King as their Head of State.

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[ThrawN]

Unknown to most Australians, Scott Morrison was also The Queen during his term as Prime Minister

[MathewUtting]

Important to note that for Australia, the PM has indicated that the current term's constitutional referendum is focussed on the Indigenous Voice to Parliament and doesn't want to hold a referendum on the republic until after that.

The 1999 referendum was complicated with an additional question about a preamble to the constitution and it's believed that taking more than one question to a referendum at a time results in both being defeated.

[Vaati]

The fact that this video didn't mention Antigua and Barbuda, which has announced a referendum (albeit without a date YET), and Saint Lucia, where there also have been significant rumblings in the past few days, is shocking. They are way more concrete than New Zealand and even Australia.

[PhazonMS]

The likelihood of Canada becoming a republic any time soon is extremely low. Regardless of any republican or monarchist sentiment in Canada, starting the constitutional amendment process in Canada is opening a can of worms. Removing the King as head of state would require the assent of all 10 provincial legislatures, and getting all the provinces to agree to anything is a headache and a half that sucks up a metric fuckton of political capital. It's extremely unlikely that any federal government would be willing to spend the political capital on removing the monarchy.

[MrLurchsThings]

Will the Commonwealth collapse. Probably not. Members of the Commonwealth becoming republics and removing the monarch as their head of state? That’s more likely. But the two are separate issues.

[betula]

05:00: just some minor notes -

Anthony Albanese had always promised that a Republic referendum would be held only if he got a 2nd term, with the first term being for the Statement from the Heart.
So, he didn't change his tone -- in fact, it's very consistent from republican PMs to show deference to the monarchy, and especially in a time like this.

Also, the 1999 Referendum was a bit dodgy.
It occurred at a time when the Diana incident made the family unpopular -- however, because the PM was a monarchist, the question was asking for a specific model, which would split the yes vote.

[lenniegodber]

The problem with the constitutional referendum in Australia in 1999 was not the presence of the commonwealth or the monarchy but the method of selecting the President in the subsequent republic. The proposal at the time was to have politicians pick the President and not the people. This was completely unacceptable to many people then, and would be now if they chose the same method.

[alexpotts]

Can we just take a moment to celebrate Papua New Guinea's flag design? Definitely a top-five national flag for me.

[wraithship]

My Canadian friends pointed out to me that an important part of Canadian culture is about how they're not American. And the monarchy is a very visible part of that. For my friends at least, they said the risks of changing up a working system outweighs any advantages that an elected head of state would bring.

Especially as if they were to have a president there would be a risk that the post would be given too much power. They said a figurehead head of state would be preferred. Perhaps an adaption of the governor general's post similar

[EclipsePheniox]

From what I understand, the reason why Australia voted to keep the monarchy was due to the fact that they couldn't decide what kind of republic they would like. Do they want a US version, where the president is head of government and head of state? Or just a representative?

As for Canada, I was looking on Quora about this, and apparently, it would mean a major change to the constitution which would mean opening such a big can of worms, that it might be not worth doing it.

At least, those are from what I understand.

[coolstorybrooooo]

Ireland left the commonwealth due to a technicality not because they chose to. There was no "you are a member by default" option if you gained independance.

[randombystander]

Wait, was the queen the "most deposed" monarch in history? Considering, that every colony became a kingdom in their own right after independence, she was dethroned 17 times in 17 different countries on 17 different occasions. On average she lost a throne every 4, 1 years.

[notyilli_]

A note about Australia: The current PM appointed an Assistant Minister for the Republic, plans are defiantly under way to have a referendum on Australias independence, but certainly not within the next 3 years.

[himoffthequakeroatbox]

I don't see why. It's basically an international bar staff exchange scheme with a practice run for the Olympics thrown in.

[DMN]

It’s worth noting, that with the 1999 Australian Republic referendum, there was a sizeable no vote that wanted to become a republic, but disagreed with the proposed form of republic. The proposal would functionally allow the PM to sack the president with no notice period, but require the president to give 14 days notice of sacking the PM, meaning that if a president tried to sack a PM, the PM could sack the president immediately and replace them with somone who would not sack the PM. The President would not be appointed via a vote of the public.

[BZMN]

Description of the situation in Australia was poor.

Australia is a federation with a constitution that requires a majority of voters in a majority of states to vote yes for a specified model with detailed constitutional amendments for change to occur. The 1999 campaign had republicans (generally "direct election" supporting) campaigning for the no vote. We can't have a Brexit style "it's anything you want it to be" campaign. There was near no mention of the Queen in the no campaign as there is apparently 10% of Australians want to maintain the monarchy for its own sake. People are just scared of change.

THe current government has appointed a minister for the republic. The not-in-this-term commitment is to prioritise a referendum on a constitutionally recognised indigenous voice to parliament.

There is also an imperative to do it right and establish a consensus on a model ahead of putting it to vote. Recent polls for remaining as a constitutional monarchy are in the mid to high 20% although there is a high "unsure" percentage and only high 40s% support. Again, the challenge is as soon as the discussion goes to "what model" where some will only countenance direct election of a president while others will not accept any radical change where a president has really ir perceived political power.

[rokmare]

It's funny how all these former colony went independent on their own while Hong Kong who loves the Queen and didn't mind being a British colony was given up by Britain

[ZiggyMercury]

Regardless of who's the Queen/King, in my view, the whole "realms" thing doesn't make sense anymore, and didn't make sense for the last 60-70 years or so - ever since these completely (society-wide) stopped seeing themselves as an outpost (or colony) of the UK. I mean, Canada's origin is in the UK, but no Canadian in 2022 sees himself/herself as a Brit. They see themselves as Canadians (or even North-Americans).

[qwertyTRiG]

When Ireland dropped the king as head of state, that was a requirement for being in the Commonwealth, so we left that too. India, shortly later, was the driver for a change to the rules to allow a country to remain within the Commonwealth with no monarchy (or with a different monarchy, as some Pacific island nations now do). There was some talk thereafter of Ireland's rejoining the Commonwealth, but it never happened and seems unlikely now.

[AureliusLaurentius]

Canada removing the monarchy pretty much removes one major factor that seperates them from the United States