[TF2] Is Unboxing Worth It? I Did the Math to Find Out

Many Team Fortress 2 players ask the question: Is it worth it to unbox?

To get a definitive answer to this question, I did the only thing I know how to do: I applied lots of math and over-analyzed the hell out of the problem. That is, I created a fully functioning boxing simulator and ran the numbers. Here are the results.

There is a ton of very interesting information here, so trust me when I say it will be worth your time to read!

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● Hud: Bud Hud

Transition Music:
● Punch Deck - Dream 13

● Outro Music: Vexento - Staring At The Lights

● SFM Thumbnail and conveyor animation made by ZEG

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Thanks for watching!

[TheVirtualEconomist]

*Whoa! Scream Fortress 2019 is out!*

If you want to know what to unbox from the new event, check out this quick guide I wrote! It uses findings from this video, as well as what we know about this year's update to make predictions about the best crates to unbox if you want to pull something awesome from this year's Halloween event.


*Original Pinned Comment:*

On some level, I can’t believe this video is finally on YouTube. Believe it or not, this video has been in the works (on and off) for almost six months, and due to the stupid amount of work I had to put in to not only record this video, but program the unboxing simulator itself, there have been many times where I was close to giving up and scraping the video all together.

That being said, against all odds, this video has ended up on YouTube. And as a result, I really hope you guys enjoy this video. This video has some incredibly fascinating results that I’ve been dying to share with you guys, and I hope you guys appreciate the awesomeness of these findings as much as I do.

Because there is a lot about the simulator I didn’t have time to talk about in the video (e.g. behind the scenes stuff), I've complied a FAQ document that answers some of the most common questions I've received on this video, as well as gets into a full breakdown of how I simulated each crate type of crate. The document has some length to it, but there is a ton of very interesting information in here, so trust me when I say it will be worth your time to read!


Finally, before I go, I want to give a quick thanks to those who helped me with the video:

*Backpack.tf* - For having a great API I could use to collect the prices of almost every item in TF2.
*The TF2 Wiki* - For providing me with data on crates, unboxable items, and some unbox percentages. I referenced this site more times than any other while creating this video, and the help it gave me was invaluable. Without it, I'm not sure this video could exist.
*Python Library Authors* - Analyzing data in Python is an absolute joy, and I can’t think of another language I would rather use thanks to these amazing tools.
*Archimo* - For walking me through some of the complexities of unboxing from the perspective of a seasoned unboxer. Most of my numbers from bonus drops would be completely inaccurate without his help.
*ZEG* - For once again providing me with a great thumbnail, as well as a sweet animation as well.
*Stevia Sphere & Punch Deck* - For creating some great music and putting it under a Creative Commons licence.
*Anyone I know in real life* - For putting up with my desire to continuously torture myself while working on this video.

Thanks for watching!

[masonmontieth]

Little did he know he just made the prices of multiple crates sky rocket

[goodguyjack]

Hey Vsauce, Ben here. Crates aren't profitable. Or... are they? *Vsauce music starts playing*

[Charitish]

Now I gotta EV train my crates in order to get that optimized unusual unboxing build.

[MrKooler]

This came out about a year ago and so today I tried this method and I unboxed an unusual! Thanks VirtualEconomist!

[billping]

Should be way more likes... the amount of time and effort is under appreciated.

[SlumpDrunko]

Here I am wishing I hadn't deleted all my robo crates ages ago

[qhx]

thanks mate opened a cosmetic part kills for 3 keys profit <3

[matteobesho]

This video gave me the pretty stupid idea to go open a crate, I opened crate 82 and found a headshot part. I got away with this so I won't do it ever again

[connerfredeen]

Many the Magic the Gathering players ask the question... Wait wrong channel.

[seriousspikesam]

And now the crates cost 300% more than before... well, not really since there are hundreds of thousands of these crates lying around.

[stealthenforcer]

My first crate I opened I got an unusual

[ZombieNubify]

Make this a public tool man. This shit's gonna shift sooner rather than later, and we gotta keep up.

[epicebic]

Stop pocketing the soldier Jesus Christ I can hear your teammates smashing the e key

[saint]

This is one of the most historically significant videos to ever be produced in the Team Fortress economy. You effectively proved that gambling can be profitable, through pure number crunching and excruciating pain.

I applaud you, TVE, for making one of the most informative videos in this game’s history.

[Naleksuh]

These kinds of videos are what I wish I could always see in my first search result. But everyone else keeps pumping out clickbait 10:01 videos that restate what i already know but with 5 midroll ads

[soraokamichi]

Viewer: So is crate unboxing worth it?
TVE: Well yes but actually no.

[Shaltevencraft]

I see someone's been watching The Professor... 😉

[xXRobloxguy]

why does the pitch of your voice go up and down every 5 words ahh

[nuggets]

As a stat major who grew up with TF2, this is an amazing video! Keep at it!