Response to Graham Conway's 'The Contradictions of Battery Operated Vehicles'

Sources

horses

I'm looking to start putting together a list of accessories I want to buy for the Aptera, if you have suggestions to add to the list below, let me know in the comments!
Extra solar panels
Tesla to J1772 adapter if they go with tesla plug
Lumbar support
Camping mattress

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[Skylancer]

I disagree I think thinktanks should always be questioned for legitimacy. These are businesses that are literally made by a company to either skew public discourse or confuse politicians. It's basically the opposite of science where instead of seeing facts and objectively studying it for possible cause, they instead work on the principle of seeing something they want to change or support and finding a reason for that.

These aren't just people with a bias, it's people being paid to have that bias.

[ccibinel]

Transport Evolved also has a good video picking apart this TEDx talk. Short answer is he is wrong... PS: It takes 8 KWH of electricity to refine 1 Gallon of gas. Even in terms of electricity less energy goes into driving a tesla than a comparable gas car.

[ddessert]

Steve, great video and review. I agree that using less has more impact and why I am interested & pre-ordered a 400 mi Aptera. At one point in my career I was paid to make bad numbers look good. Like Graham, lots of people only select the information that fits their agenda or the agenda of those employing them. I got to the point where I could no longer sleep or feel good about myself making bad numbers look good and found other things to do.

One thing that does bother me is this blind drive to EV usage. Tesla sells 54% (197, 000 vehicles) of the EVs sold in the US but that this only 1.13% of the auto manufactured & sold in the US. The US grid infrastructure has been challenged significantly in large parts of the country with high temperatures. My co-workers in TX were reporting rolling blackouts. If the number of EVs when to 1 million sold in the US by 2025 we would have significant power issues. (Let's assume that everyone with a pre-order for an Aptera gets one by 2025. Yes, unrealistic but 30, 000 vehicles is a drop of water in the ocean.) Ford & GM are not looking to make more efficient vehicles. They are doing just the opposite by making the F-150 Lightening, Hummer and Corvette which is a hybrid, 450 hp ICE with a 200 hp electric motor.) It is as if they want to cause enough pain to cause a backlash in moving to EVs. America is very spoiled and yes, that includes myself. We expect to be able to jump on an airplane and in a few hours at most be anywhere in the lower 48. "Bigger is Better". Bigger will be the end of us sooner than we want to acknowledge. Most Americans are not concerned with what the environment will be like more than two generations out. They are lucky to know 2 generations back. They are focused on the here and now. "Make my profit today and worry about tomorrow when it comes..." Well, tomorrow is here today. For me, the Aptera is a great solution but I looked at the total cost of making the Aptera from an environmental standpoint versus continuing to drive my Mazda 3 that is reporting an average of 35 mpg and has 190, 000 miles on it and in very good condition. I keep vehicles for a very long time so the Aptera will likely be my last vehicle I purchase. Those of us who watch this channel are in the minority of Americans that might be thinking about the impact our vehicle(s) make to the environment. The issue is huge. We have seen that ICE vehicles are not good for the environment but neither are huge EVs that demand huge amounts of power. When it comes to the environment, few will talk about the amount of pollution that is dumped in the air at 35, 000 ft with airliners. There are on average 8, 000 jets in the air over the US at any one time of the day. Dumping that kind of pollution at that altitude has huge effect and was shown with the complete shutdown of air travel after 9-11.

Everyone has an agenda, myself included. Mine: do more with less. Get people to think about not only tomorrow but down the road after we are gone. Our grand-kids are going to ask why we let things get so bad and didn't we care about them? We did not get to this point over night and if we are to fix it, it will not be done over night either but if we don't seriously make progress, food shortages will be a major factor that will get people's attention sooner that we think. The Aptera is a great step in working towards transportation needs but the number of people that will consider it is still very small. Aptera to make a difference needs to sell 1 million vehicles but first they need to sell their first vehicle.

[MsAjax]

Conway started his talk mentioning that there are one billion cars and trucks on the globe (I think it's quite a bit more than that). What if we could reduce that to 500 million cars and trucks? If possible, we could greatly reduce the CO2 emissions from manufacturing and recycling vehicles.

I believe we are on the verge of being able to produce autonomous electric vehicles (e.g., robotaxis) with the potential to replace millions of underutilized vehicles (ICEVs and EVs) parked in streets, parking lots, and garages today. Doing so would reduce the total amount of nickle, copper, lithium, and other materials needed to make batteries for this EV fleet in a closed cycle battery supply chain. This fleet of vehicles could be designed for million-mile life cycles, further reducing the energy needed to manufacture and recycle automobiles. Other advantages come with improved safety, more efficient travel, higher productivity, and, of course, lower transportation cost.

Conway's premise is false. We need more batteries, not fewer. The solution is fewer, longer lasting, efficient cars.

[arlenbell]

Excellent job of developing facts surrounding ICE and EVs - the best I’ve seen! Before Aptera I was not a fan of EVs as I felt the total technology picture needed more development. Aptera IS the smart answer — not for every need, but probably for most of what everyday people need. I will never be a fan of hybrids which combine the worst of both technologies: all the regular maintenance requirements of ICE and the complexity of the charging system with some penalty battery weight. Hybrids are now antiquated technology and not needed with the proliferation of charging options now.
Interesting TED presentation that mislead a lot of people.

[deanmcmanis]

Sorry, but I cringed when you said that a Corvette weighed 5, 000lbs!😳 I understand that it totally wasn't your point, but a C7 Corvette (like the one shown) weighs about 3, 400lbs. But that Corvette outputs about 449g/mi of CO2, so your comparison stands up. The Coal/electricity argument is a very weak one in the U.S. with 19% of electricity coming from coal overall, and only 2% in California. Plus currently, over 12% of the country's electricity comes from renewable resources, and in CA it is 59%. The thermal efficiency of ICE vehicles range from 20%-35%, and modern peaker plants (that produce electricity at night from burning natural gas) have 32-45% thermal efficiency. I am glad that you mentioned the production, transportation, and emission costs of gas, because they are not small. Also newer battery technologies like Tesla's 4680 batteries, which use dry electrode technology and produce far less emissions when made, and upcoming solid state and other batteries, promise an even greater difference in initial battery production emissions. I like hybrids, especially plug-in hybrids, and I think that there will always be best use case scenarios where each technology shines. But I really like your point about simply using less energy, because it helps in all areas. One last point with the Aptera is that for sunny areas, the Aptera's onboard solar panels can reduce electricity use even further, flattening that slope more.

[andremcamara]

Great job Steve on trying correct Graham's unrealistic presentation.

One thing that many Climate Alarmist fail to mention is that to be able to stand on a stage and spew so many untruths, he re quires Oxygen to breath, let alone live and where does he get this Oxygen?

From the air we breathe, most say but where does this Oxygen come from? Trees of course.

And without CO2 to convert to Oxygen thru Photosynthesis, we as a species would cease to exist.

What of the CO2 that is spewed into the atmosphere via a volcanic erroption? No Alarmist ever talks about that, do they?

So the bottom line question that needs to be looked into is, Is Co2 really the cause of Global Warming?

Real Scientists that are not paid by Governments and Special Interest groups, have continued to say NO.

But this is a Topic that maybe talked about for years since Al Gore and the likes have been proven wrong, time and time again. No, ocean waters have not risen as had been predicted by these Alarmists.

In reality, I just want my Aptera and let the Alarmist spew their Garbage at each other.

[ericpotter]

"You can't make the box bigger for the electric car, and keep the box the same for the conventional car." EXACTLY! THANK YOU! Such a bad-faith argument if you're not going to compare apples to apples.

[rngalston]

Thanks for this Steve.
In the end, as I tell my friends when they are considering roof-top solar, it's a matter of how you want to live your life and your conscientiousness with the way you live.

[Disciple_Jon]

I like what you've presented here. Especially the consideration that the horse emits CO2 all day. It would be interesting to also consider the difference in CO2 emission of a horse when moving slowly and when galloping.

[rmigalla]

Horses also make manure 💩 that actually contributes to carbon sequestration in the soil if it's managed properly. That has to be part of the "horse 🐎 calculation."

[johnmalcom]

In a previous life I was an Operations Research Analyst (Solve problems using deterministic and stochastic tools using large data sets) An inside joke was we would go into the boss and ask him what he wanted for a result. Then we would go out and make that happen. You can substantiate any conclusion you want with analysis. One of the most powerful tools is controlling the assumptions you make before and throughout the analysis. That is what the Ted Talk person did and then selecting the "Data" to use that best works for the conclusion you want. His analysis used deterministic math. (Generates one answer) The real world is not deterministic it is stochastic (Statistical) A more accurate and effective way to do this analysis would have been through simulation using specific distributions for the different factors in the calculation. This approach gives a range of values that more accurately represents how things behave in the real world which can be tested for validity and reliability. Of course Mr. Ted Talk would not show such a test as he would know his work would not pass. The other powerful tool to get the result you want is to draw the boundary of the system you will analyze around only the part that will best support your argument.
Unfortunately most of the audience that hears/sees these presentations are unaware of the manipulation and take all as truth. Then much harder to debunk their results with actual objective and rigorous analysis.

[johnmalcom]

You and your channel provide great value add to debunk analytical misrepresentations on the many competing special interest claims and misleading pseudo science in the EV space. Your scientific credentials and associated analytical expertise and commitment to digging into all relevant data provides ironclad credibility to your resulting conclusions.

[Leonardokite]

Actually, the ICE engine still has great room for improvement. The Omega 1 engine can theoretically reach 80% thermal efficiency. Even if it only makes it to 60% efficiency it is still a far cry from current ICE engines.
That said, the Aptera still has potential for zero operating emissions.

[n.brucenelson]

Another issue with hybrids is that they are far more complex than either an EV or a pure ICE vehicle.

I drive a Gen 1 Honda Insight, which has been wonderful, but when it was produced the cost was highly subsidized and much of the benefit comes from the low weight of the vehicle. I have had maintenance issues from both ICE and electric elements of the vehicle, including the clutch and the battery pack.

Collision safety Is provided through excellent safety engineering for the time in an 1800 lb car.

A pure electric vehicle can be both far simpler and less expensive to produce with even better performance all the way around.

[mkmac]

Outstanding video. I appreciate the stats and supporting your points with data. I think many of us would get a little excited and flustered when pointing out how he is clearly skewing data. Your unemotional approach is perfect. Thanks for this.

[charangohabsburg]

It's not even a TED talk, it's a TEDx event which has a much lower bar set to give a talk, no background check whatsoever.

[suunraze]

Animals and ICE engines are both about 25% efficient at converting chemical energy to work. Animals convert C6H12O6 to ATP at about 50% efficiency and ATP to work at about 50%.

[Gypsy]

Actually a modern corvette is considerable more efficient than the average, my brothers get's ~ 28 mpg give or take depending on how hard you drive it. But even given the EU's #'s it's still putting out much more CO2 than the horse. Go ahead and try and ride a horse on a trip longer than 10 miles. It's still a dumb comparison. Aptera is still the best answer.

[zachrudisin]

Really appreciate the break down and acknowledging that bias does not mean untrue but that data can be cherry picked to support our viewpoint.