Week Ahead 02/09/2024 – Big uncertainties ahead – Met Office weather forecast UK

This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the week ahead 02/09/2024.

The jet stream dive south over the UK this week, allowing a cut-off circulation to spin off in the vicinity of the UK. But where this cut-off circulation ends up is very uncertain, with a number of different scenarios possible. Bringing you this weekend’s weather forecast is Aidan McGivern.

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We are the Met Office, the UK’s national weather service, and every day of the week we bring you a morning weather forecast and an afternoon weather forecast so that wherever you are in the UK we have you covered.

Forecast and any weather warnings are accurate at time of recording. To ensure you have the most up to date weather information, check the hourly forecast and live warnings on the Met Office website or app.

[ruperthiggins]

I think there is a lot of misunderstanding about what forecasts are. They are based on the mathematical modelling of the atmosphere and, consequently, by their very nature, are not exact. The atmosphere is a chaotic system, so any modelling is an approximation. Aidan is very helpfully showing us behind the scenes a bit showing us how there are dilemmas in forecasting because of the nature of the atmosphere.

[Stavrosmct]

Please stop raining, lots of love, Scotland

[cathrynolley]

It's such a pity people have to criticise the weather changes all the time.Thankypu Aiden for a interesting forecast

[ruperthiggins]

Thanks Aidan. It is interesting how in the 10 Day Outlook last week, high pressure looked to be dominant for this week. Interesting change.

[tonythomas]

What happened to the 100% certainty that high pressure would be dominant over UK all this week????

[marcbedingfield]

The forecasts have been sooo unreliable this summer, last Monday the forecast for north Wales for this past weekend was 5 days of sun starting on friday, its mainly been rain, rain, rain. Its impossible to plan anything. Just goes to show with all the 'experts' and computer modelling they still can't predict more than one day a head. Might as well put a load of weather conditions in a hat and randomly pick one out, about the same odds of getting it right as the forecasts

[pete]

I wish weather presenters would stop calling 22c muggy, they have done it for the whole summer, its not muggy its warmish.

[MissFreyja]

Interesting set up this week and well explained Aiden. Looking forward to see how it develops, it's a shame people don't understand the weather, maybe you need to do a telly show and explain to adults how this all works because judging by the comment section it's very much in need.

[stevecross]

I ride a motorbike to commute and day I record the weather on my outlook calendar. For the majority it’s been cloudy and wet. I have even worn out a set of waterproofs this year!

[Mykst]

Hello Aidan, would it be okay if you did a future deep dive explaining how forecasts work? Unfortunately there seems to be a lot of comments by people who are always telling the Met Office team that they never have a clue on what the weather will be like when there's a lot more to it than what they think. I just think it would be helpful for those who might have a misunderstanding of the process. Thanks and great video as always.

[DavidWilliams-yt]

Late last week, the forecast was was supposed to be for wet down south potentiall in the Sunday. Sunday 30 in the southeast and rain in Manchester, where it was meant to be sunny according to same forecast. Why bother going more than a day ahead? The week long weather forecast for farmers on Countryfile back in the 80s used to be more accurate.

[peterkey]

I read the comments below and I cannot agree with the comments nor the criticism. The weather has been important to me as I am caravaning in Lincolnshire with my dog who needs regular walks. The weather is as forecast😀Can I recommend the met office weekly deep dive to give him something to really think about instead of sarcasm🤔🤔

[AmandaJYoungs]

Thank you, this is really interesting stuff. No wonder us British are so obsessed with the weather, LOL! I shall keep my eyes peeled and catch a forecast every day to keep up!

[TT-cmds]

The more high tech these models become the less reliable they are. Ive never heard the words uncertainty used as often in forecasts as they are now. Youd be better looking out your window.

[WideAppeal]

What an awful year of weather we've had.

[jasa]

I can bet you one of their forecast will be spot on .
.

[dianeanderson]

I just want the seasons back again! I hate all this uncertainty, and it's always warm when we should be wearing scarves and gloves people are wearing t shirts in Winter!❤

[kevinmccormack]

Dry in the Northwest.. at last!! We badly need a spell of dry weather, we have had an awful wet summer.

[wildlifegardener-tracey]

It's a complicated picture I'll keep up to date lots of models forecasting different outcomes I'll be carrying my ☔ with me this week. Thanks Aiden.

[matthewtrow]

Nice one Aidan.

It does seem that given todays forecast the uncertainty is already very much in play.
None have been particularly accurate - much more cloud cover and rain than forecast.