2025 Housing Market Trends with First American’s Mark Fleming

In this episode of the Top of Mind podcast, Mike Simonsen sits down with Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American Financial Corporation, to talk about the major market dynamics that will shape the real estate market in 2025.

About Mark Fleming
Mark Fleming serves as the chief economist for First American Financial Corporation, a premier provider of title, settlement and risk solutions for real estate transactions and the leader in the digital transformation of its industry. In his role, he leads an economics team responsible for analysis, commentary and forecasting trends in the real estate and mortgage markets.
Fleming's research expertise primarily includes real estate and urban economics, applied econometrics, and mortgage risk. As a trusted and influential voice with 20 years of experience in the mortgage and property information business, Fleming is frequently quoted by national news outlets and industry trade publications, such as The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, and Housing Wire, and he is a regular guest on a high-profile broadcast news channels, including CBS, CNBC, Fox Business News and NPR.

Here’s a glimpse of what you’ll learn:
Are we at the end of “the long cold winter” in the housing market
Are we poised for a rebound in 2025?
Why home sales fell but not home prices in the post-pandemic era
His expectation for where mortgage rates will settle
How he measures affordability, and what it teaches us about the US right now
The most and least affordable markets in the country, and how that’s changing
Whether first time homebuyers in 2025 will finally catch a break
How to estimate home price appreciation
Why the biggest trends in the housing market are not poised to change in 2025
What the election means for housing (and what it doesn’t)
Surprising stats about how much we (don’t) build homes anymore

Resources mentioned in this episode:
Mark Fleming | LinkedIn
First American
Mike Simonsen | LinkedIn

Altos Research is the premier resource for real-time real estate data. We provide weekly market statistics, analysis and reporting for 99% of the zip codes in the U.S., helping real estate professionals, investors, financial institutions, and their clients make better-informed decisions.

Featuring Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research

A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. Altos provides national and local real estate data to financial institutions, real estate professionals, and investors across the country, and the company is now part of HW Media, publisher of HousingWire and RealTrends. Mike uses Altos data to identify trends in the real estate market well before the headlines, and his work has been featured in the New York Times, The Atlantic, Fortune, Forbes and other publications.

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See you next week!

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Altos Research is now part of HW Media! Check out their channel at @HousingWire for more housing market insights.

[KamilP]

In my opinion, housing market crash is imminent due to the high number of individuals who purchased homes above the asking price despite the low interest rates. These buyers find themselves in precarious situations as housing prices decline, leaving them without any equity. If they become unable to afford their homes, foreclosure becomes a likely outcome. Even attempting to sell would not yield any profits. This scenario is expected to impact a significant number of people, particularly in light of the anticipated surge in layoffs and the rapid increase in the cost of living.

[Annie]

Some experts think housing prices could level off, but there’s still a lot of uncertainty, especially with interest rates. And if you're thinking about selling, buying, or even just hanging onto your property, it’s tough to know what makes sense.

[MaddieBr]

Great interview! I look forward to adding Mark's podcast to my rotation

[randypaul]

Excellent interview! Enjoyed your guest, very informative.

[Renee-bb]

fear a housing crash due to people buying homes above asking prices with little equity. If prices drop, affordability and potential foreclosures may arise, worsened by future layoffs and rising living costs. I want to invest more than $300k, but I'm not sure on how to mitigate risk.

[lauragraves]

24:57 I love this Analysis format! That makes so much sense and blows your mind a bit how much things are off… Housing Genie.
My husband and I keep running numbers because we are so confused as to why on paper it sounds like we are wealthy but can’t buy a nice house in our area. We are in the 90th percentile in income distribution and can only afford to buy starter houses 🤯 so this confirms it’s out of line. Though for rent yes we can afford 90%

[IbrahimKone-ixqi]

I just switched up my Roth IRA to 50% SCHD, 25% SCHX, 25% SCHG, and my Roth 401k is 70% vanguard S&P 500 index, 20% vanguard growth index, and 10% vanguard international index. Seeking best possible ways to grow $350k into $2m+ before retirement.

[starnew]

There is no reason why banks don’t provide a low interest rate to buyers buying a primary home. Homebuyers spend more money in keeping their home in good shape than renters and landlords do, and that translates into busy stores and employment. We have a crazy market because of high interest rates and not enough inventory. Homeowners that were able to refinance their homes around 3% in the past and not moving unless they are relocating or any other issue.

[Openminder]

Guys.. just because the fed cuts rates does not mean mortgage rates are going to come down. Only happens if we get a recession or if the fed starts buying MBS again.

[lauragraves]

But what about the 10 yr treasury? From what I’ve studied it looks like it goes up if we issue more, and everyone agrees both candidates will spend more… so won’t it continue to go up as we have to issue more treasuries to find the debt 🤔