An evolutionary ecology modelling team in the COVID-19 pandemic - Samuel Alizon - 210610

Title:
An evolutionary ecology modelling team in the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract:
The SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus has spread over the world rapidly creating one of the largest pandemics ever. The absence of immunity, presymptomatic transmission, and the relatively high level of virulence of the COVID-19 infection led to a massive flow of patients in intensive care units (ICU). This unprecedented situation called for rapid quantitative analyses and robust modelling projections to best inform the general public, the care staff and the public health policymakers, in a context of lack of data and hindsight.

Il will present several aspects of the SARS-CoV-2 infection, spreading, and evolution tackled by the ETE modelling team using an array of methodologies from statistical modelling, phylodynamics, and mathematical epidemiology. The topics addressed revolve around the early inference of key epidemiological parameters (reproduction numbers, wave initiation date, lockdown efficiencies), the optimization of non-pharmaceutical control strategies, the epidemiological implications of spatial and transmission heterogeneity, how to anticipate short, medium-term dynamics, not forgetting perspectives related to vaccine rollout and variants.

If time permits, I will try to give some more personnal feedback about evolutionary ecologists venturing into public health in a time of crisis.