It’s Clear The U.S. Economy Is Already In Recession

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist for QI Research, a research and analytics firm, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 109.

A global thought leader in monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded QI Research in 2015.  She is the author of FED UP: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets.  Prior to QI Research, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. She served as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in March 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy.
 
DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette where she worked in the fixed-income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University.

Links:

Timestamps:
00:00 - Welcome Danielle DiMartino Booth to the show
1:06 - Macro outlook on the economy, discussion on job market and revisions
3:56 U.S. economy is clearly in a recession if it weren’t for government spending
6:30 - Discussion on the Federal Reserve and the higher for longer regime
9:20 An about-face for equity investors
11:46 - Conundrum for RIAs
15:22 - Biggest risk is in middle portion of commercial real estate and corporate debt
17:30 - Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and a passive investing bubble?
18:27 - Discussion on Federal Reserve's zero bound interest rate policy
22:30 - Geopolitical risks following an attack in Israel
24:30 - US deficit at wartime levels, fiscal responsibility and potential long-term consequences
26:30 - Conclusion

#economy #recession #danielledimartinobooth

[TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

Hey everyone! I hope you enjoy this episode featuring Danielle DiMartino Booth as much as I did. Let me know if you have any guest recommendations for the remainder of the year. Thanks again for your support. You all are truly the best! 💙Julia

[stevemcleod]

Danielle makes a lot of sense, thanks for having her on.

[dailydoseofnews]

Good stuff. Always enjoy getting an update on Danielles current view.

[santomenon]

Excellent Nuggets from Danielle Dimartino Booth. Thank you Julia and Team for this episode

[gregweiss]

Yet another great episode ! Love Danielle ❤

[ashanesubasinha]

Danielle is always so good to have. Thanks

[gregorysagegreene]

Basically summarizing what all the other guys I've been listening to for a year have said - Schiff, Bordenaro, Mannarino, Gerli, Celente, and Taggart.

[juliorivas]

A good interview style, Julia. You allow your interviewee to explain their ideas well.

[KenCaniato]

Listen to this beautiful women she is always on the mark

[MrFargo]

Danielle is always informative. And I love Julia's Canines.

[stephenbush]

Danielle you make remarkable good sense in this frustrating investment climate. Some of us are doing just what you say, sitting on the sidelines, and have been for a long time now, while the market has gone up and up for example since last October. That makes it hard to completely stay out, especially for younger folks and those who have their money managed by advisors who have securities they want to sell them. But getting into the market comes with the gnawing suspicion that this market isn't real. It is subsidized by the government. There is too much bad data about the economy and too much obviously fake data by the government. So there is this daily anticipation of the bottom falling out that never seems to happen. If the economy cannot function efficiently with 7-8% interest rates, which are not historically high, then something is very very wrong. Those low interest rates were keep in place for a reason. The rich wanted to get richer and the economy needed the life support to give the illusion that all was very well when it wasn't. Everything bought on time has skyrocketed to levels people can't afford in a normal interest rate environment. This rise happened because home builders, realtors, car dealers, etc try to get as much as they can for what they sell based on what the customer can afford to pay. They want that price maxed out. Low interest rates make that possible. Now people can't afford to pay the high prices anymore because of elevated "normal" interests rates. Companies wanted low interest rates so that the money they borrow was near FREE. Now when they have to refinance their debt their costs will double or triple. Sounds like the government will further devalue and dilute the dollar by running in with bailouts again. Prices can only go down because if the government lowers rates again prices will get so high that half the population may soon not even own a place to live, much like the populations of third world countries. We need interest rates at 7-8 % in a low inflation environment so people who are retired can make their living on interest rates without having to take too much stock market risks. Think about that! And if the government doesn't stop spending, stop giving away money, and goes back to lowering rates inflation is going to roar back while millions who could work won't work anymore. Crazy. At the same time when I go out to eat now most of the people working in the restaurant can't speak English and are little doubt here illegally. Why isn't that employer fined or jailed? We know why! Just 2 days ago I held up the drive through line for 10 minutes before the attendants inside could figure out how to give me a credit card receipt for my purchase. Our current economy and our current policies are not sustainable.

[mattjenkins]

Two of my favorite women to listen to in the financial world! Thank you for this great interview, Julia. Desperately needed with all the news I've been consuming the past few days. 🙏🫶

[taratong]

Lucky Lopez on the car market and Melody write for the housing market.

[detectiveofmoneypolitics]

Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is still watching this very informative content cheers Frank

[BennyJeters]

You two would make an outstanding stack!

[shaft]

Danielle your experience should be used to help us climb out of this dark hole you are a glimps of light that we all need more than ever in history.

[davidcoard]

Great overview, so its risk off time.

[michaeldonnellan]

There are only 9 companies holding up the S&P and the country . The rest are leveraged : The balanced fund managers, the majority, will cost teh investor dearly. Daniielle is right on the money. Please keep bringing these winners on . Well done .

[ask_why]

Why would American taxpayers be expected to fiscally support any other nation? Allies or no.

[jrl]

Just wait for the U.S. steel 👈 company