Tracking the Tropics: Tropical Invest 97-L continues to have a low chance for development

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The National Hurricane Center is tracking a tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa into the eastern Atlantic for possible development, but current chances for a named storm remain low.

The tropical wave has been designated as Invest 97-L as the NHC monitors its potential for development. Currently, the NHC is giving the system a 30% chance of developing over the next five days. Right now, there's only a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours.

Still, this is the first tropical wave the NHC has needed to keep an eye on at all in more than a month. Since early July, the tropics have been dead quiet. In fact, the last named storm, Tropical Storm Colin, fizzled out around that time.

Lots of wind shear and Saharan dust in the Atlantic have made it hard for tropical systems to develop.
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...don't you think the Grand Solar Minimum we entered in dec 2019 has changed the prevailing winds, and formation is not as ptevalent?

cryptogeezer
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No Danielle for a while. dry air and shear will kill INVEST 97L. I think this season is a bust if nothing develops by 8/31. The 14 day forecast still indicates lots of SAL, cooler waters and dry air/shear in the MDR. The models indicate a weak MJO, SAL and no SST anomaly changes by 9/1, so very unfavorable conditions will continue until at least 9/1. BUST of a season.

anthonygambitta