Economist Fact-Checks Zeihan's China Collapse Story

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SOURCES:
I've linked my sources in the blog that goes along with this video. Links are in the text.

Timestamps:
0:00 - introduction
2:22 - demographic collapse
9:36 - sponsor
11:20 - food and energy disaster
16:32 - failing growth model
19:05 - increased authoritarianism

Attribution:
- various Peter Zeihan clips are from Zeihan's own channel (see source blog for links), some crips are from Zeihan's appearance on the Joe Rogan experience and some of his appearance on the Jordan Harbinger Show.

Narrated and produced by Dr. Joeri Schasfoort
Edited by Christopher Adewole

[baahcusegamer]

This sort of credible challenge is deeply appreciated. Peter is still human and can make mistakes. I appreciate even more that you delivered this critique with the utmost of respect. You’re an excellent example of professionalism in this regard. Thank you.

[longhaulblue]

I read a great comment about Zeihan. "He's successfully predicted 20 of the last 3 global crises." Cracked me up.

[Mojo]

I think your peer reviews and fact check videos of these popular youtubers are really important. Especially as they serve a big audience that might not be as critical. This may cause even more less critical information spreading the globe.

So well done Joeri. You make youtube a better place

[tmantb]

That’s exactly what I suspected, I always enjoy listening to him. I just turn his predictions down a few notches.

[toober]

I've watched a lot of Zeihan vids and value his analysis, but I'm often surprised at the somewhat extreme nature of his conclusions because they seem not to allow for the possibility of any intervention. I just don't think the world works that way. Thanks for your presentation.

[MicaelSG]

As a geography teacher I've been keeping tabs on Zeihan for many years and, in my view, he has always attracted people's attention through sensational claims. To me, he is a very knowledgeable sophist. In many of his talks with military personnel he make these claims about how America's greatest rivals aren't really a threat and that countries like China could be easily contained. In his lectures to American soy farmers he always claims that they shouldn't worry about Brazillian competition because of Brazil's bad infrastructure and narrow export corridors.However, year after year, Brazil has produced more soy beans, exported more and more, and has now finalized its largest railway in decades, that cuts the nation from north to south. To me, he will always overlook other nations success, particulary those that have some sort of beef with the US, may it be peaceful competition or geopolitcal rival. I'm a great admirer of the US society and, as a Brazillian, always find ways to learn more about our flaws by observing America's example, but Zeihan only seems to apreciate the success of his country and some of America's friends.

[slappyabromowitz]

This is not a rampant debunking. It positions an strong alternative argument in a respectful way. Enjoyed it. Kudos.

[RockyMountainPilgrim]

Very good video. The problem I have found with Mr. Zeihan is that he more often than not 1) Comes to a conclusion, and then 2) Finds facts to support his conclusion.

[jimbob]

I have traveled and worked in China for about forty years, and have followed its astonishing economic progress with a great deal of interest. You are correct: Zeihan correctly points out problems that now face China, but draws hyperbolic negative conclusions.

[OtterLatif]

I appreciate your thoughtful criticism of Zeihan's predictions and assessments of China. I must mention the Lancet study was published before China admitted to miscounting its population in 2023. The impact was over 100 million. Given the propensity for China to report data with an overly optimistic lens, we are likely to see more corrected census reports. Not to criticize the Lancet, but if they are using faulty data from China, then their conclusions will be inaccurate.

[Mrnewkrakbo]

Zeihan: sensationalism. I mean "collapse in a decade or two" equals a solid early retirement selling books and popping up in every space

[johnfenechdoe]

Mr Zeihan is not wrong on some of the issues and I must say I enjoy his way of “explaining” the points of views he has. He also is not a “phony” in my opinion. He genuinely has valid points and points to the obvious in an unbiased manner.

However, I do take his arguments predictions and ideas with caution since he seems to always discount the ability for humans or humanity for that matter to adjust, address and or make the necessary changes.

[tommyrq]

This is very competent, careful analysis. Your conclusion is right on the money. Peter Z provides provocative insight, but people are seduced by his confidence and salesmanship. NOBODY knows the future, especially when it comes to collective human behavior. Having said that, COMPARATIVE analysis like this is invaluable to help us understand our complex world. Thank you.😊

[normanpettit]

Thank you for this detailed insight. Sometimes when listening to Peter I have this nagging feeling that he is caught up in his own confirmation bias. I appreciate your rational and thorough analysis.

[StevenBrener]

I'm glad you did this b/c I've watched many of Zeihan's videos, and while I find them illuminating (and not to mention entertaining) I've often wondered whether his prognostications are overblown and presented with way too much certainty. I think you've confirmed by hunches.

[elmohead]

China: exists for literally 50+ centuries
Zeihan: China is about to disappear within 0.1 centuries

[brootalbap]

What's telling about people like Zeihan is this: He speaks with absolute certainty without differentiaton on things that nobody can predict with certainty. He is a performer looking for fame, not a serious researcher or analyst.

[charleslueker]

Great video, as a military officer I appreciate Zeihans perspective but yes, definitely important to understand that his perspective is one opinion and not an absolute truth on which to entirely base decisions.

[kcm]

Excellent analysis. Mr Zeihan, in my opinion, confirms the theory that "a man sees what he wants to see, and disregards the rest".

[habibbialikafe]

yeah when the guy said China saw almost no technological growth over the past 15 years he immediately lost almost all credibility in my eyes. Insane statement.