When Will Interest Rates Come Down?

Whether you’re a saver or a borrower a question that many people are asking is: When will interest rates come down? In this video, we’ll look at the latest forecasts for UK and US interest rates to see the near-term outlook, but also consider the longer-term drivers of interest rates to help you gauge where rates will be over the years ahead.

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Timestamps
00:00 Introduction
00:32 Interest Rate Forecasts
04:20 Bond Supply & Demand
07:10 Downward Rate Drivers
10:25 Upward Drivers: Quantitative Tightening
12:00 Upward Drivers: Shrinking Labour Force
12:51 Upward Drivers: Deglobalization
14:30 Upward Drivers: More Government Spending
16:42 Conclusion

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DISCLAIMER
All information is given for educational purposes and is not financial advice. Ramin does not provide recommendations and is not responsible for investment actions taken by viewers. Figures that are quoted refer to the past and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

[avibm]

It's a joy to listen to your detailed analysis every week.

[andreaisonline]

Hi Ramin, beautiful video as usual! I was wondering if you are familiar with the Steuerpflichtige Vorabpauschale tax in Germany. Essentially, the government started taxing unrealized capital gains from ETF. Allegedly, this is to fund people's pensions and probably to provide generous salaries for government politicians.

[Daniel-usdl]

Hi Ramin! Do you think higher rates for longer will keep stock market gains minimal? Or do you think both might rates and stocks will stay high in the coming years?

[chipledhungaman]

Thank you for another clear and informative video - very interesting

[roberthuntley]

I was wondering if the "shock" (not really, it was easy to see in the shop's footfall) 3.2% fall in UK retail sales in December will filter through to increase the pace of rate cuts. I've seen articles stating that if January figures go the same way we will technically be in recession.

[blhlow]

Thanks, Ramin. Excellent video as usual

[bleshjjdnit]

Opinions on the market diverge; some claim overvaluation due to rapid gains, while others cite strong economic fundamentals justifying high valuations. Raises concern for my $600K equities going 8% up and 20% down. Should i hold on or sell off my positions and hold cash?.

[montyloads]

Shiller p/e Hi could you please do a video on this subject. Im looking to invest and im unsure if I should drip feed or lump sum and have seen this could help but I think I would understand it better if you explained it 😊

[EdfromCanada]

As always, another informative, intelligent fact based video. I thoroughly enjoyed it - thank you.

[MarkCW]

Thanks Ramin for a great video as always.

[jabberwockytdi]

Most recent trend in UK is GDP flat and I don't see any imminent reason that will change at all soon.

[GavinLawrence]

Great video as usual, but how do we see your pie on T212? *Edit - never mind, found them!*

[RobertGillontheinterweb]

Our relatively small economy and therefore central bank will have no say on what ultimately happens to interest rates, the global trend presently is one of deflation and therefore lower rates

[alex]

Hi Romin. Is there any point investing in a money market fund on a platform that charges a fee when trading 212 are offering a 5% interest rate by investing your cash in a MMF? Is trading 212 now the cheapest way to invest in a MMF?

[ATOMIKDOG]

Another great video...I am not a fan of bonds....I find the way you give everyone the information that is needed to make informed decisions is fantastic...thanks Ramin

[rinakaur]

I doubt interest rates will ever drop to pre covid levels in my life time (assuming i have about 20-30 years left in me(.

[minshum]

...and as always, thank you for creating.

[rdrift]

Excellent video. I think I’ll come out of bonds soon.

[vkman]

That chart of life expectancy vs healthcare spending at 15:50 - there are two ways to describe this. One say is to say higher life expectancy is expensive. The other is to say spending more on healthcare enables people to live longer. The general trend on the chart is clear, except for that one crazy outlier country in pink right at the top which is... the USA.

[mxmus]

As a saver, it’s been great to lock in some of these higher rates, although the banks have already priced in rate cuts in their new offerings.