Trump & Truth — A Commentary by Michael Shermer

Listen to The Michael Shermer Show # 151 (audio-only):

“Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities.”
— Voltaire

In this monologue commentary on the events of January 10, 2021, Dr. Shermer applies causal inference theory to Trump’s speech that morning, the violent assault on the Capitol that followed, the banning of Trump off social media platforms like Twitter and Facebook, the fears on the Right of social media censoriousness on the Left, the breaking up of big tech social media companies, and related topics, including what it means to “believe” a conspiracy theory.

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This episode was recorded on January 6, 2021 as part of The Michael Shermer Show (formerly Science Salon) presented by The Skeptics Society, in California.

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[jeeveekaa]

Fear of being isolated from a group must be a huge driver for stopping critical thinking.

[CarlosCMTF]

I think there is a semantic distinction that Michael did not consider about conspiracy theories: there is a difference between conspiracy theories, which are by definition dramatic, fabricated, nosnsense, and simple conspiracies which do exist and can be almost anything that envolves a secret plan directed as someone or something: you can conspire with somone to organize a birthday party to someone else, for example.

[ComedyJakob]

"They can but should they?" Is a great thing to mention when people insist that the only entity in the world which shouldn't censor people is the government. Freedom of Speech isn't just a legal concept, it's also a principle and a moral idea.

[johngalt]

Bans and censorship means you're over the target. Not that you're lying.

[stormbringer_]

Love Michael Shermer!😂🙌
Three cheers for old Hitch🇬🇧

[jeffersonianideal]

As much as I admire Dr. Shermer for his work as a skeptic, he is not a legal scholar. This may be one of the reasons he failed to cite the landmark case of Brandenburg v. Ohio, 395 U.S. 444 (1969).

[rickb]

Michael I have personally not heard anyone propose that most cops are driving around looking for black people to kill. I do know that there are a minority of LE that has, and will continue to, utilize excessive force at every opportunity when interacting with black citizens. Where the problem lies is that there are indeed a majority of LE that, out of fear, lack of empathy, agreement with such unlawful action, just not enough to employ it themselves, that will not take the necessary steps to hold the bad minority of their coworkers responsible for their lawless acts. The SCOTUS case you cited laid the foundation for the established legal theory of incitement of imminent unlawful acts. Lastly, if you’re still at Chapman perhaps we can get together for lunch some day to further discuss this topic.

[ameliakittie]

No hesitation now after listening and checking out the purpose of Skeptic.

[heyho]

lawsuits against monopolists don't need to be succesfull to have an effect - they still slow down and might even break. They most likely make certain actions unattractive.

[davidanderson]

That's it! I'm going to the pizza restaurant and taking care of this MYSELF. SAVE THE CHILDREN!! D.A., NYC

[chriswhitt]

I just need to say that to not go ahead with the outside inauguration because of it being dangerous is exactly what some republicans and the majority of Trumps base want of would be happy about.
No the inauguration should go ahead. A strong police and if needed home guard and military pretence and extra private security etc.

[publiusovidius]

Michael didn't mention the main cause of today's political polarization--extreme (mostly GOP) gerrymandering. Politicians are now allowed to choose their voters. So they're mostly in "safe" districts--which means the more radical they are the better chance they have of winning their primaries. There is no reward for compromise. So until gerrymandering and voter suppression are solved, the US will continue down its evolution away from liberal democracy.

[petitio_principii]

The MS monopoly thing was not about Netscape, which is not from MS, but one of the few competitors for their browse, Internet Explorer. And IE kept being the dominating browser for years and years to come, very gradually that Mozilla (derived from Netscape), and later Google Chrome and some others got a significant share of the market. I'm not sure the anti-trust stuff was really effective or not, just pointing this confusion with the browser names and that perhaps the legal action indeed have more of a beneficial effect than Shermer assumes. Apparently the innefectiveness it had was a bit in the other direction, that the first alternative to IE that existed didn't last long enough to benefit from it, but only the alternatives and forks (Mozilla Firefox) of the original alternative. So instead of an argument against this kind of anti-trust action, it could be argued that somehow law should be more effective in preventing it from happening in the first place, or in dealing it when it happens in a faster and less litigious manner. But I don't know. I don't like dumb market regulations, but also recognize the problems of monopolies and oligopolies, so we're between a rock and a hard place.

[merlepatterson]

Q: Is it scientifically possible to verify whether or not the election outcome was in fact what it was?
A: Yes (with one caveat that all ballots and machines results ordered by law to be held for 22 months after elections can be fully audited by bipartisan and nonpartisan observers)
This would end any and all debate about the validity and outcome of this election. Why would anyone not want the scientific truth to be revealed? It would show without question that either Trump is delusional or Biden did not in fact win. End of story

[TheBeatle]

Nice rundown, especially about Trump's culpability. My one comment is that Trump is not the antithesis of Republicanism, he is its fruition. So, I'm not sure the GOP can do this pivot that Michael hopes for at the end.

[Rocky_Anunnaki]

My favorite show on YouTube.
Yes Sir

[MusicGunn]

The statute for Incitement to riot includes this passage:

“to organize, promote, encourage, participate in, or carry on a riot”, includes, but is not limited to, urging or instigating other persons to riot, but shall not be deemed to mean the mere oral or written (1) advocacy of ideas or (2) expression of belief, not involving advocacy of any act or acts of violence or assertion of the rightness of, or the right to commit, any such act or acts."

That last sentence is the damning terminology for Trump. He is guilty and should be arrested as soon as he is out of office. I am not stupid enough to believe that will happen though. But if any one of us did this, we are talking a few years in jail for sure.

[johnlinden]

The greatest conspiracy is in the notion that behind everything there is a conspiracy ! Delusion and illusion by so many is the reality and reality is fast becoming the illusion ! What can be done to get people back to reality, facts and evidence and put a stop to so much nonsense ?

[katrand]

Like your points, Mr Shermer, with I believe one exception but can't remember what it was. Kind of like that Tim Allen line, "What was that middle part?"

[aresmars]

Currently I'm noticing Facebook videos. Recently I clicked a kid's birthday video from a friend, it ends and another video comes on by X22 Report, a QAnon site, and I'm curious and watch enough, and then I notice MORE conservative/loonly land videos are coming up. I found how to turn off autoplay, but these things are coming up AUTOMATICALLY based on assumptions of who I am! I don't have to "follow". I don't have to "like". I just have to accidentally watch for a few minutes, and FB must mark me as "likes loony right videos".
So if you're not a conspiracy person when you start, you will be eventually, if you keep watching and they pull you deeper and deeper. Do you worry about vaccines - you'll go down the hole. Do you worry about nonorganic food? You'll down down the hole. It's all connected in the conspiracy world.
And when the "Patriots" talk over 50 state capitols on Sunday with 1 million people, you might not be there, but you'll be cheering the patriots who are taking back the country for the people, like you. And if people die, you'll watch more of these videos that will interpret events for you, so you'll be sure the government needs to be overthrown, even if you do nothing but cheer. That's what Facebook is doing NOW.
WHY? Because the currency of social media is "views" and they can mix in ad videos in the autoplay mix if you're not paying attention.