China Bans Greentech Metal Exports to the US (Repost From July 2023) || Peter Ziehan

The Chinese government has announced long-anticipated trade restrictions in retaliation to the US’ ongoing efforts to limit Beijing’s access to high-end chip technology.

Where to find more?

Where to find me on Social Media?

#china #minerals #export

[flowdesigner]

I am not Chinese - but why is their move considered childish, but not the US tariffs?

[hughmckendrick]

Your country threatens others with tariffs and expect those countries not to react?

[EvgeniiSosnin]

I am an exploration geologist, and I can tell the author is wrong about "90% of pure silica comes from North Carolina". It's a BS. There's a web newspaper ones posted it, and other news channels started to cite it, but there's no proof of it. Generally, pure silica deposits aren't something rare. For instance, Russia has lot's of them in Urals region. But they are considered as a strategic commodity, so you need a clearance. I believe China has the similar policy, but anyway they also have large orogenic belts, so there must be pure silica deposits.
Considering this, I believe the author just grabs some clickbait phrases without fact-check.

About the metals China banned. My biggest concern is in "superhard materials". The devil in details. What materials exactly were banned? If it's tungsten - there will be huge problems, much bigger than gallium.

[abdulmujeeb-rwvj]

Good faith negotiations with America...😂😂😂 Americans live inside their own bubble..

[samiktiri]

Every single prediction you’ve made about China has turned out to be wrong . I’m amazed you have the chutzpah to keep confidently blabbing about the subject

[PeloquinDavid]

An American complaining about the Chinese acting in "bad faith"???

I couldn't agree more, but that's still RICH!

As a (greatly) offended Canadian, I'm willing to hold my nose and buy Chinese to make up for my personal boycott of everything "Made in USA". #FUSA

[harrisrobin]

Peter has such as smug face when he talks about China, you can see how little he thinks of them. I basically just assume that he is under estimating China at this point since he’s been fantasizing about their collapse for years.

[wayned]

Hehehe, the Muricans slap tariffs on Chinese businesses left right and center and then you expect THEM to enter into negotiations with the bullies...thats rich.

[johnmiller]

It’s amazing how you can spew out such absolute nonsense with such confidence.

[海绵宝宝小鱼儿]

Many of the most important rare metals are industrial byproducts. To produce 100 tons of gallium, 40 million tons of bauxite, 5 million tons of lime, 3 million tons of caustic soda, and 10 million tons of standard coal are required and 25 billion kWh of electricity . The problem is that no country can consume the aluminum products produced, except China, which is the largest aluminum product producer. Gallium is a byproduct. No country has ever been able to produce gallium alone. The cost of producing gallium alone will increase by a hundred times.. No one can afford it.The power generation in the United States is only half of that in China.The aluminum production is even less than 10% of that in China

[waywardgeologist]

One small point, most zinc refining isn’t done in the U.S.. As an example, the Pb, Cu, and Zn ores coming out of the Doe Run mines are shipped over to China for processing.

[gjffudcgifvbju]

If the U.S. wants to establish a production line, it must first ensure there is enough electricity to meet the demands of aluminum production, rebuild outdated power grids, and the domestically produced aluminum, being expensive, can only be used internally due to lack of competitiveness. If they want to pursue this unprofitable business, I fully support it.

[ktchong]

ABC 15 Arizona posted an interview with Steve Trussell about rare earth minerals. Trussell owns his own rare earth mining business. He is also the current director of the Arizona Mining Association. So he knows what he is talking about on rare earths... I imagine certainly more so than Peter Zeihan does. In the interview, Trussell said that, quoting from a S&P 500 study, it could take TWENTY-EIGHT years for the US to catch up, match and replace China in rare earth production. TWENTY-EIGHT YEARS. That interview video is on YouTube.

Now, I personally think it won't take 28 years, but it will certainly more than a decade. Most other expert estimates and reports I've seen or heard is this: it'd take 12-15 years for the US to be able to replace China in rare earths and become self-sufficient. However, this competition is not really about rare earths. Here is what this is really about:

China will be able to catch up and surpass the US in semiconductor in HALF that time, like about five years. China should be able to catch up with the Netherlands in lithography technology in less than 12 years, and most estimates it's about "a decade". (However, in recent tear-downs of Huawei phones and other Chinese tech toys by US analysts and experts, they concluded that China was behind the US in semiconductor by less than two years, like 18 months at most.)

Sorry, but the US is gonna lose the chip war... especially if China leverages its advantages in rare earths: cut off supplies to the US chip manufacturers, which will just wreck the US chip industry. (And China will have to come to these realization and determination: with its current dominance and monopoly in rare earths, China will either have to use it or lose it.) Sure, the US will ultimately be able to replace China and become self-sufficient in rare earth... but NOT soon enough. It will be AFTER 12, 15 and probably even 28 years. Definitely NOT in a few years. By that time, China would have won in semiconductor AND lithography already.

[agevelyn]

Why is the US restricting the Chinese from buying chips when they supply some of the material to make them? They say national security, but everyone knows that reason is deceptive and uppresive.

[IAKPDT]

A search on the internet told me China, Russia and Brazil are major silicon owners and producers. What is this BS about North Carolina and laughing so awkwardly?

[Withnail]

Building replacement capacity for germanium and gallium is easy and can be done in a few weeks? Is he high?

[tonywilson]

*FRIENDLY AUSTRALIAN HERE:* Guess what we produce in monumental amounts??
Zinc and Alumina.
We'd like a better deal regarding some submarines!

[greatharmony]

US is capable of producing all these materials, only question is how cost effective it will be.
I bet the US production will easily be 5-10 times more expensive than China production, let alone all the delay due to environment evaluation, funding, skilled labor shortage, etc.

[lsvaralokasf]

Every time this guy says about China it’s always bad but he is enjoying the highest living standards because of made in China products.

[posthocprior]

Peter has simplified the production of high-purity quartz. There are only two places in the world that mine it. One, as Peter mentioned, is North Carolina. The other is in China and the mining is done by Jiangsu Pacific Quartz Products. The earlier produces about 180k tons annually. The latter about 20k tons. Also, the Chinese are anticipating that the US responds by restricting or banning the sale of high-purity quartz. There's a 16% tariff on it from the US, in order to wean Chinese companies from using America's quartz.

It's also worth noting that many developing countries see mining as a way to move up the value chain. They want to emulate the Chinese dominance in certain mining, mineral, and metal sectors. Two are India and Indonesia. So, what may happen is that, even if there is a severe trade war between China and the US over minerals and metals, it may be short lived because there are other countries that want to get what is perceived of as a lucrative market.