Biggest X-Flare of the Cycle & an Earth-Directed Storm Train | Solar Storm Forecast 04 October 2024

This Space Weather News forecast sponsored in part by Millersville University:
This week, our Sun wakes up in a big way, firing multiple big flares, including an X9-flare from Region 3842, the largest flare yet of this solar cycle. This region began its rampage as it entered the Earth-strike zone and has now launched two big, Earth-directed solar storms. Along with some smaller storms sandwiched in between the large, faster storms, this solar storm train is set to begin hitting Earth on October 4. The speed estimate for the initial impact has a larger margin of error than usual, due to a sparsity of coronagraph observations during the eruption so the storm arrival window stretches clear to the morning hours of October 5.
We are expecting G3 levels during the peak of the storm, so aurora photographers should get a good chance for some nice shows from October 4 through at least October 6. Sadly, this heightened activity complicates the ongoing Hurricane Helene emergency response. Amateur radio operators, please be aware that dayside communications will be noisy this week and be subject to periodic radio blackouts up to the high R3-level. (We nearly had an R4-level blackout today.) Nightside communication will be difficult during the multi-storm passage on October 4 - 6, but then should improve slowly after that. GPS and UAV Search and Rescue responders should also stay vigilant this week as GPS reception will likely worsen around dawn and dusk and likely on the nightside while the storms are passing. Learn the details of this solar storm train, see why Region 3842 has become such a big flare producer, and learn what else our Sun has in store!
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For a more in-depth look at the data and images highlighted in this video see these links below.

Solar Imaging and Analysis:

Solar Wind:

Magnetosphere, Ionosphere, Atmosphere:

Multi-Purpose Space Environment Sites:

Definition of Geomagnetic Storm, Radiation Storm, and Radio Blackout Levels:

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[camiloarango]

Excellent report Dr. Skov. Thank you. Appreciate the details for radio operators, gps users. And loved the mention that this is a great time to power down our electric consumption and relieve our grid load. We can all help a bit 😊

[cassandralynn]

Thank you for your updates, Dr.tamithla. All we can do is keep riding these 🌊 …and pray 💫

[taranance]

Excellent report, Tamitha, . Thank you for keeping us informed!

[arthurwolfram]

Thank you so much for all your amazing videos! You show us a world that few people are aware of!

[alexkalish]

Great job with superb graphics. A much more impressive cycle peak than the last one - thanks Doc -

[dalericketson]

Hi, I am a ham radio op. and I value your info. Radio Propagation has been so disturbed lately sometimes for the better and sometimes for worst. Thank you for your videos.

[cecilhampton]

What we love about you, Dr., is your calm, level-headed sound effects . Storms come and go, but we all spin together ❤️

[jefft]

You’re awesome! Thanks so much for the time and effort you put into your channel. Love watching it.

[Lostinthesand]

I sent the information to my EMS friends at the Oregon Communication Center with the full report. Thank you.

[EulisisDelgadoJr]

Thank u for the update Dr Skov. ❤ the red color coded shirt.

[andytheiss]

about 90% of solar storms this year have been stronger than forecast so i wouldnt be surprised if we hit g5 for a short period of time

[gregwilkin]

Thank you for sharing, Dr. Skov. :)

[metalhalokjvzy]

My favorite solar storm forecaster Tamitha, the space weather woman nails it again! Thank you😎

[Amondera]

Red October ❤, meanwhile most people are distracted with what, you constantly teach, The Why!❤ You rock...

[fredkaluza]

No one puts it together like Tabitha! I’m a fan now. Thank you Dr. Skov!

[michaelltnv]

Thank you again for another great update, Doctor. 73s, and God bless.

[madmoe]

I’ve been waiting for this one! Thanks for the explanation for us.

[anniee]

I’ve never seen the whole northern hemisphere glowing with aurora borealis from Kansas before! It’s wild and I got some amazing photos. Could see it with naked eye!! Incredible!!! What a show!

[SuperChaoticus]

Got a recommend for this vid. I'm hooked. This is amazing.

[kathypaaaina]

Aloha hugs awesome Report in your Red Warning Alert Shirt.