Technical Trading, Stock Market sending Clear Messages to watch for Fed Rates June & Global Economy

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The Federal Reserve meeting will draw all the attention this week, even though traders consider it a fait accompli. Fed funds futures say there is a 99% chance that the Federal Open Market Committee keeps interest rates on hold.
This past week’s hot inflation data has cemented that belief and put the focus on the Summary of Economic Projections, also known as the dot plot. For now, the market is still pricing in a first quarter-point rate cut in June.
Based on the February CPI, "the Fed needs to seriously increase the hawkish tone of its communications in order to dampen expectations regarding the timing and extent of Fed rate cuts in 2024." But if FOMC members push out their forecasts, the higher-for-longer narrative will gain steam again.

It's triple witching day ON FRIDAY, which refers to the simultaneous expiration of stock options, market index options and market index futures. The event can lead to higher volatility and more trading volumes, giving speculators an opportunity for quick arbitrage opportunities. It happens four times a year - on the third Friday of March, June, September and December - with much of the increases in activity taking place during the last hour of trading, otherwise known as the "witching hour."

Snapshot: Interestingly, the day used to be called quad witching, but single stock futures ceased trading when the One Chicago exchange closed up shop in September 2020. Volume spikes happen as positions are closed out, while the rolling over of contracts also boosts turnover. This time around, options tied to around $5T in stocks and indexes are due to expire. It comes on the heels of strong stock options volume in March, which is on track to exceed trading in equities for the first time since late 2021.

Along with the Fed, there will be a host of housing numbers to consider. The NAHB Housing Market Index for March, the February starts and permits figures and February existing home sales are all due.
What to watch: While triple witching is important for traders, the broader market is also keeping tabs on the event. Call-heavy expirations can agitate stocks, especially when there has been high demand for large-weighted players like Nvidia (NVDA), and all of the main stock indices fell last week in the leadup to the witching. The move lower also followed a mixed jobs report, with subsequent hotter inflation readings on CPI and PPI, and another session in the red today could see the S&P 500 (SP500) notch a second straight weekly loss for the first time since October.

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