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From National to Local: GA’s Tropical Cyclone Hazard Assessment in Action
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Speaker: Craig Arthur - 28 Ocrober 2020
How much damage will a category 5 cyclone cause in Cairns? And what suburbs might be worst hit, putting more pressure on emergency services? And what are the chances of a cyclone like this actually happening now, or in the future?
History provides a limited picture of what can happen from tropical cyclones (TCs). Take the example of Port Hedland or Townsville, with limited numbers of close TC impacts, especially in recent decades, where many communities have gone through rapid growth.
How could emergency services in these towns prepare adequately for a major TC strike with no recent experience? How do they know if they have sufficient resources? Will they need to call in resources from other regions or further afield?
In this presentation, we will discuss two parts of this problem – developing plausible scenarios of TCs for use in exercises and then evaluating the impacts of a selection of these events to guide planning and response actions for emergency services.
GA’s Tropical Cyclone Hazard Assessment (TCHA) provides the backbone of impact scenario modelling – a stochastic catalogue of 10,000 years of plausible TC events that users can delve into.
We connect the scenarios to our extensive built environment data collection and the corresponding vulnerability modelling capability to deliver tangible information on the impacts that as-yet unseen events could deliver to communities around our northern coastline.
About the speaker
Craig leads the Atmospheric Hazards team in the Community Safety Branch of Geoscience Australia. He is responsible for developing and applying the Tropical Cyclone Risk Model and other models to understand the likelihood and consequences of TCs. Craig previously worked as a forecaster in the private weather services sector, so understands the demands of operational forecasting. This has been hugely beneficial to building a strong relationship with researchers and operational staff in the Bureau of Meteorology, and understanding the needs of emergency services for timely and relevant information. Craig keenly follows the impacts of severe weather in Australia and abroad, and yes, he did see the February hailstorm coming but still didn’t get his car under cover…
How much damage will a category 5 cyclone cause in Cairns? And what suburbs might be worst hit, putting more pressure on emergency services? And what are the chances of a cyclone like this actually happening now, or in the future?
History provides a limited picture of what can happen from tropical cyclones (TCs). Take the example of Port Hedland or Townsville, with limited numbers of close TC impacts, especially in recent decades, where many communities have gone through rapid growth.
How could emergency services in these towns prepare adequately for a major TC strike with no recent experience? How do they know if they have sufficient resources? Will they need to call in resources from other regions or further afield?
In this presentation, we will discuss two parts of this problem – developing plausible scenarios of TCs for use in exercises and then evaluating the impacts of a selection of these events to guide planning and response actions for emergency services.
GA’s Tropical Cyclone Hazard Assessment (TCHA) provides the backbone of impact scenario modelling – a stochastic catalogue of 10,000 years of plausible TC events that users can delve into.
We connect the scenarios to our extensive built environment data collection and the corresponding vulnerability modelling capability to deliver tangible information on the impacts that as-yet unseen events could deliver to communities around our northern coastline.
About the speaker
Craig leads the Atmospheric Hazards team in the Community Safety Branch of Geoscience Australia. He is responsible for developing and applying the Tropical Cyclone Risk Model and other models to understand the likelihood and consequences of TCs. Craig previously worked as a forecaster in the private weather services sector, so understands the demands of operational forecasting. This has been hugely beneficial to building a strong relationship with researchers and operational staff in the Bureau of Meteorology, and understanding the needs of emergency services for timely and relevant information. Craig keenly follows the impacts of severe weather in Australia and abroad, and yes, he did see the February hailstorm coming but still didn’t get his car under cover…
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