Henry Kissinger and Graham Allison on the U.S., China, and the Thucydides's Trap

Henry Kissinger and Graham Allison on the U.S., China, and the Thucydides's Trap

July 11, 2017 at the Harvard Club of New York City

[KayNaturals]

9:17 is when it really begins. Also 1.5x speed ppl. Save yourself.

[christopherkahn]

You have to stick around for the last few minutes to hear Henry's mic drop statement that the Chinese recognize the international order dominated by Europeans for the last 400 years has disintegrated. As a student of history, for me that is tectonic paradigm shift.

[superlyger]

Geopolitics is a highly speculative field. Kissinger enjoys chess, and is very good at it. However he has proven to be not so good at the zero sum game of politics. The wars under Kissinger or his advisory have been disastrous.

[davidk]

Very enlightening discussion.  I am glad the audience member asked his question at 1h 8m.  It is a question that many Americans wonder.

[shyamchaudhri]

Graham Allison has raised the biggest issue of our times. Its important to educate the broader public about.

[haider]

In the whole interview, I observed that Mr. Graham Allison looked very uncomfortable and embarrassed. IDK for what reason but it was weird.

[davidk]

Anyone else think Kissinger now looks startlingly like Mr. Fredrickson from the movie "Up"?

[flyingzeppo]

Holy crap that was a long introduction. Dr. Kissinger finally gets a chance to talk at 9:15.

[hoangtran-gfgd]

@ 55:00 to 57:00, Mr. Kissinger speculated on the possibility that China would prefer non-nuclear, unified Koreas, which showed that he's not all that astute about the Chinese thinking and all the underlining forces that have brought North Korea to where it is today. Mr. Kissinger probably has never spent much time pondering why ill-equipped China determined to intervene during the Korean War to save North Korea at all costs from the Allied Forces, or how and why a poor country suffering from constant famine such as North Korea was able to acquire the knowledge of making nuclear weapons? In a similar argument, Mr. Kissinger may have forgotten the fact that China's knowledge of nuclear weapons was early on handed to her by a derailed scientist from the West. I agree with Mr. Kissinger that a non-nuclear, unified Korean peninsular would be preferred by everyone, not just by China but how and under what terms is something that definitely requires a great deal of well planned discussions and well thought out negotiations? It appears that China has been quite successful in using North Korea as a buffer zone and an effective bargaining chip in dealing with the "unruly" America in particular and with the "hostile" free world in generaI, I'm appalled by Mr. Kissinger's over optimism and simple-mindedness in his thinking about the issue! I strongly believe the idea of a non-nuclear unified Korean peninsular would materialize ONLY under and by the Chinese terms! And what would be the Chinese terms? They could be a host of conditionings that would be for sure very hard for South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and America to swallow!

[benwong]

Kissinger again shows he is the Master of geopolitics. His analysis is comprehensive, fair, and logical. It is unfortunate he is retired. The current crop of advisers in both China and America need to study Kissinger's works and thinking more assiduously.

[hoangtran-gfgd]

Henri Kissinger: "North Korean could collapse, leaving a (serious) nuclear stockpile problem for South Korea to. . . mope up"? An entertaining thought but Henry Kissinger's simple minded thinking and reasoning concerning the current geo-politics of Asia Pacific is sooo. . . 20th Century! Given China's strong economic and military standing in the world today, it is unbearably silly to speculate on such outcomes as China would probably try to prevent that from happening at any cost, Sir!

[erichwieger]

Compare this discussion with Mearsheimer's lecture asserting that, theoretically, it is highly unlikely that China can rise peacefully. Kissenger is not a "Realist" in international relations. He seems close to that theory called International Society--believing that the actual interpersonal relations of diplomats, leadership, and others, and their success or failure at understanding each other, more than pure power politics, determines developments. Mearsheimer thinks that usually power struggles rooted in fear and the need to secure survival against indeterminable threats, issuing often in wars, is the more fundamental dynamic.

[cjoe]

The one belt one road program is only the result of the US Naval pressure on China. It's not ambitious and it's too hard to succeed. China's objective is simply expand its market as much as possible when the coastline has been pushed, i.e., the east of China has not much to work on. Japan and Korean and even Taiwan have been closely linked with the US, and Australia, etc., what else can China expect to do in terms of markets?

[ecpgieicg]

Would someone be kind enough to provide us fellow youtube plebs a transcript?

[christopherkahn]

This discussion was very informative. Henry Kissenger has been a national treasure for quite some time. May he remain healthy and lucid for many years to come.

[paularnold]

Like him or no, Kissinger is amazing for 90 years old.

[maxmin]

If Xi is preparing for downside of war with U.S., how do NK and NK's nuclear weapons figure in Xi's war strategy?

If NK nukes are a fait accompli, then how will China seek to leverage NK nukes in its favor, in particular in putting pressure on Japan?

They seem to speak as if China is a political monolith. Are there hard-line factions in China pressuring Xi like we have hard-liners in the U.S. always pressing for war? If so, what is the hard-line Chinese position on NK?

[steventolifson]

I appreciate the intervention that was achieve and am quite faithful some hard questions received a positive outcome. Much love to Henry Kissinger, as well as, all involved and may God's grace and wisdom cleanse and bless us all.

[akp]

I wish he commented on the US presence in Afghanistan and how this is partly, if not mainly, due to China's OBOR Initiative.

[cheblack]

The point is to promote a book creating a hot topic from thin air.