Cracks Appear in the Canadian Economy as Unemployment Hits 6.8%

#canadianeconomy #canadaeconomy #bankofcanada

Canada’s economy is starting to show some cracks under the weight of higher interest rates, with unemployment rising to its highest level in almost 8 years. Yet, the data shows that there are stark differences between 2017 and 2024, with 2024 showing more signs of stress.

Links:

Jobless rate reaches 6.8% in November, highest since January 2017 outside of pandemic:

Jobless rate reaches 6.8% in November, highest since 2017, excluding pandemic:

Odds of jumbo BoC rate cut boosted by jump in Canada's unemployment rate:

BMO changes rate cut call after surprise jump in Canada’s jobless rate:

Labour Force Survey, November 2024:

Canada’s economy ‘looks pretty weak’ following unemployment figures: CIO:

Policy interest rate:

Release of the Monetary Policy Report / Publication du Rapport sur la politique monétaire:

Canada’s Jobs Momentum Continues In January (Audio):

Open the doors:

Trudeau announces sharp cuts to Canada's immigration targets:

Report finds 1 in 5 newcomers leave Canada within 25 years, calls for retention plan:

Canada to admit nearly 1 million immigrants over next 3 years:

'We're in a recession,' says former Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz:

Immigration prevented a recession last year, but looming changes could stall growth: economists:

Government of Canada reduces immigration:

Market Participants Survey:

Posthaste: Why top economists are changing their Bank of Canada rate cut forecast:

Congrats, Canadians: You’re world leaders in debt:

Canada's economy grew at faster-than-expected 2.6% rate in 4th quarter of 2016:

Rosenberg Research: Markets are underestimating how much the BoC will cut rates in the next 12 months:

Canada 5 Year Government Bond:

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[althunder]

It's very infuriating that they are lowering interest rates to save irresponsible debtors over responsible savers.

[epictetus]

I've said it before - the canadian economy is in serious trouble.

[BinkyTheElf]

We’re having a very small Christmas this year. Our “extra spending” is pretty much done.

[rachelk]

Unemployment is more like 12-14% as they only count the people who are eligible for EI. TFW/ Students aren't eligible for EI. Nor are people who have been unemployed for over a year or are self employed.

[AnnN-qlqe]

U always deserve a ‘like’ first, before listening to ur video. Thx Mark!

[MM-xgtd]

Unemployment set to rise over 7% by the end of the year, expect a .5 rate adjustment for December 11th.

[ikFaVm]

😢😢😢 i hope everyone is doing well.
For the currently unemployed, I pray that you will find a fulfilling career soon.

[midplanewanderer]

At this point, dropping the interest rate to encourage more indebted spending is like 'treating' a terminal meth addict...with more meth. I fear we're in the beginning of a mass-systemic-failure that will dwarf the breadth and scope of the early 1930's. Things are starting to break because too many people are just hanging-on by their fingernails, because, by design, most of the wealth and assets appear to have been hoovered-up to the top of the pyramid. How can it _not_ topple over?

[dipansharma]

Very few people doing honest Market analysis and this channel is one of them.
Thanks for the great work !

[Cattilycurious]

Thanks for your sober and balanced approach to the forecast!

[bakrob]

This is a great channel. Come here for the mortgage advice. Leave with some of the best economic analysis. Win win!!

[Casey-qmnd]

For unemployment, Canada is still under the long term historical average of 8%. This current uptick is more attributed to bringing in too many people, and not having enough jobs.

This makes the economy appear weaker than what it really is. Soon though, the rising unemployment rate will be more attributed to a weakening economy, and that will make the numbers go even higher.

If the longterm avg is 8%, and if we are at 6.8% now, it wouldn't be hard to imagine double digit unemployment on the horizon, especially with the huge surge in population growth that we are still absorbing.

Like others have said, unofficial unemployment is much higher already. So if the headline numbers read 10+%, you know its so much worse. The real kicker is going to be when unemployment rises at the same time as the cpi. We are already seeing the early stages of this now imo.

It never had to be like this, but Canada brought in waaaay too many people at the worst time. So now we can't have low unemployment without having high inflation. That is the trade-off of unhinged population growth.

Thanks like always Mark.

[pilotgirl]

Good informative data. Let’s hope renewal wave in 26 goes the same as 2024. Thx Mark !!

[wewons]

Hey Mark another great video. Memes are always on point.

[cybernate]

This is hilariously optimistic. Great video though as always.

[Stormshfter]

The unemployment that is created from small/meduim business insolvencies due to shrinking disposable income will likely cancel out any gains in employment due to increased exports.
New investment in our energy sector is at a standstill. A combination of Trudeau's new carbon capture targets and not yet knowing whether Trump will embrace Canadian oil. Any new investment there won't happen until we have a change in govt.

[BobSmith-bwso]

Mark

Great show today
Loved the difference between 2024 and 2017

Too bad the fall economic update will be available after interest rate decision

[vert]

They don't need to bring more people in to artificially boost the economy through this, the people are already here and very few of the 4mil scheduled to leave will actually leave by the time they should. Looking like rates are headed to 2 percent again unless something changes fast.

[TonyChev]

People don't be buying houses because a family of four will have to spend $3000 a month to feed themselves. Most of our food is imported. When the dollar hits 60 cents American the cost of everything will skyrocket. I like the idea of Canada as the 51st State!

[gmarks]

65 cent loonie soon when BOC drops rates again 😂