🚨 sector rotation during recession (know this)

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[tristanskanal]

According to the graph, if we are in the early recession phase, means that we are already near market lows???

[Marcovian]

You are currently assuming that we are already near the bottom of the bear market.
In 2000 the Fed rates rose to 6.5% and held that for 6 months before they started to fall over the next 2 years to 1.75%. From Sept 2000 to Aug 2002 the SPY dropped 48%. From the start of the FED reducing rates, it took 2 years before the SPY hit bottom.
In 2007 the Fed rates rose to 5.25% and held that for 9 months before they started to fall over the next 1.5 years to .25%. From Oct 2007 to Feb 2009 the SPY dropped 57%. From the start of the FED reducing rates, it took 1.5 years before the SPY hit bottom.
Currently, the FED has yet to start reducing rates. Is there any reason to think that this time will be any different? If so, why and in what way could it be different? I personally think it may be worse because of so much more debt now than before.

[loinguyen]

Today is Dec 1st 2023. It seems to me that the "sector rotation" theory was wrong.

[TheRealMacAndCheese]

Per your comment about finance being a good sector in recessions...what if there is a bank run?

[bluezaton]

Almost saying Coca-Cola instead of cola speaks volumes on their brand's hold on people.

[brianfromdenmark]

Watching this in december 2023 - you have been pretty accurate, I think, as we now look into the early recovery from a mild recession - tech having rebounded heavily.

[stevo]

Could be in between market top and bear market

[rpm]

Sorry but this sector rotation chart makes no sense whatsoever....