Markets Weekly June 1, 2024

#federalreserve #marketsanalysis
Geopolitical Risks Rising
Offices Yet to Bottom
Soft Landing Chances are Good

00:00 - Intro
1:15 - Geopolitical Risks Rising
4:17 - Offices Yet to Bottom
6:52 - Soft Landing Chances are Good

For my latest thoughts:

For macro courses:

My best seller on monetary policy:

[whitefearlytales]

When you work on something that only has the capacity to make you 5 dollars, it does not matter how much harder you work – the most you will make is 5 dollars.

[rapp-inmz]

Great video, The first $100, 000 invested was amazing. But when you hit $300, 000 it’s like smashing the glass ceiling! I cried.

[clays]

Not as bad as it sounds. Russia has all of their missile batteries just on the other side of the river inside of Russia and they have wreaked havoc on Ukraine. Ukraine asked for permission to take them out

[JohnPong-lyzg]

Still think a recession is unavoidable because we regular folks only see inflation as cumulative not rate of change

[wannarck]

Thank you for the weekly debrief Joseph - I appreciate your objective/unbiased approach

[yalesdy]

Glad to see you’re one of the good guys, regarding your geopolitics views, Joseph!

[mitchtickets]

There should be another term for a “soft landing” when it is way later than it should be.

[chrisp]

Joseph, thank you for not forgetting about us despite your very busy day! Superb comments about the underappreciated geopolitical risk in financial markets. Excellent presentation of the potential for a soft landing even if that is not your personal base case. Always ❤️ these videos!

[imjamming]

If despite companies bringing their workers back to the office for more than a year now hasn't stopped or slow the decline, then working from home is not the only driver of CRE decline. Anyway office leasing is long term, so companies whose lease has not expired had little choice but to pay for them even as their employees were working from homes.  
Other drivers include higher interests rates, continued slowdown of the US economy which started in 2022 and leading to growing number of companies going out of business for various reasons(excess debt, bad business models, etc) For example, Red lobster went out of business because it couldn't afford the higher rent due to lower consumer demands, among other things.

[AllNighterHeider]

Youre awesome JW, really loved chatting and laughing with you. Thank you for not forgetting us and for your presentation at the event.
P.S. still got my book for you to sign, again 😁

[UchihaItachi]

we will have best soft landing in history; J Powell is the best Fed Chair in history.
no recession, low unemployment and strong economy.
Those are complaining about economy are those who have been doing low paying jobs all along and did not have ambitions to get higher paying jobs.
First 50BP rate cut in July and then monitor and wait if more cuts are needed.
J Powell will enter history books as one of the greatest Fed Chairs.

[ChuckSwiger]

JW - Antidote to Manic Mr. Market Media. From the last chart, if we are in 'inflation abating' scenario, per the easing cycles history looks like a 20% chance of soft landing yet (11/25 * 5/11) with a 56% chance of returning to an inflation regime.

[matthewhammond]

When people say "inflation" why do they never state what it's due to? It's implicit that it's due to money supply but we have no idea how many dollars there are in the world. And nobody knows how much is due to money supply and commodity supply/demand.

If you use the word "inflation" without being specific you're participating in a financial and political psyop by central bankers and politicians.

[SamTenkan]

Thank you Joseph. High immigration is deflationary since it puts pressure on the services inflation which is the sticky part of inflation. Prices of services should come down unless companies increase their margins. Therefore we will have high inflation with higher stock market.

[DonDonTheVet]

Thank you Joseph. Good to meet you today. Question I wanted to ask you. You mentioned that inflation will continue but given that the dollar has lost 98% of its original value, how much more can we inflate? Thanks!!

[masonsteed]

Rise in unemployment not due to an economic downturn but because of immigration.

Great insight to look into for me this week. Thanks Joseph

[deamonkind]

So a 20% chance of achieving a soft landing based on past record means that the fed is on course for a soft landing?

[tommurphree]

Thanks for taking the time to post: I love hearing your perspective!

[alugosuwa]

Thanx a lot Josh for enlightening us even though you are busy ...!!

[rowenahenderson]

Thanks so much for all you do for us Joseph