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Michael Green & Keith McCullough | Hedgeye Investing Summit Spring 2022
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This is an exclusive "Hedgeye Investing Summit" interview between Michael Green, Portfolio Manager at Simplify Asset Management, and Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough.
Mike led off the Hedgeye Investing Summit with a professorial lesson on flow dynamics, the options market's impact on the yield curve (and how things are not as they seem), why the Fed's jawboning and assertion that 'it's different this time' is disingenuous (to say the least), and more.
"The New York Fed came out with, what I consider, a laughable paper called 'Don't Fear The Yield Curve Reprise'. Two researchers at the New York Fed wrote a paper in 2018 saying 'you don't need to worry about the yield curve inversion.'
They're now out with *another* paper saying, 'Well, yes, there was a recession following that yield curve inversion, but that one was because of Covid so it doesn't really matter. And THIS one doesn't matter either... and oh, by the way, the only thing that matters and that you should be following is the very front-end of the curve' (what they call the Near-Term Forwards). But that part of the yield curve *only* responds to Fed intentions.
So effectively the Fed is telling you 'Don't fear a recession because the Fed doesn't see a recession', and that doesn't feel like a helpful message to me."
Mike led off the Hedgeye Investing Summit with a professorial lesson on flow dynamics, the options market's impact on the yield curve (and how things are not as they seem), why the Fed's jawboning and assertion that 'it's different this time' is disingenuous (to say the least), and more.
"The New York Fed came out with, what I consider, a laughable paper called 'Don't Fear The Yield Curve Reprise'. Two researchers at the New York Fed wrote a paper in 2018 saying 'you don't need to worry about the yield curve inversion.'
They're now out with *another* paper saying, 'Well, yes, there was a recession following that yield curve inversion, but that one was because of Covid so it doesn't really matter. And THIS one doesn't matter either... and oh, by the way, the only thing that matters and that you should be following is the very front-end of the curve' (what they call the Near-Term Forwards). But that part of the yield curve *only* responds to Fed intentions.
So effectively the Fed is telling you 'Don't fear a recession because the Fed doesn't see a recession', and that doesn't feel like a helpful message to me."
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